While the trade involving Trae Young last week was the inaugural transaction of the NBA season, Thursday represented a crucial point on the league’s timeline. On this date, almost all players — with the notable exceptions of Bradley Beal and LeBron James, who possess no-trade clauses — became eligible for trades.
The league’s three-week dash toward the February 5 deadline is underway, as front offices are actively making inquiries, considering potential trade options, and analyzing salary cap implications. However, numerous contenders are still deliberating on their strategic path.
This week’s exploration across The Association centers on those franchises aiming to enhance their lineups, teams intending to pare down, and perhaps most significantly, those that are still contemplating their choices.
Among the league executives consulted by ESPN, the Bucks were nearly a unanimous choice to be major contenders when the deadline arrives. General manager Jon Horst and his team’s ingenuity in maximizing assets are well acknowledged and respected league-wide. Horst has been canvassing the league for talent across various positions, again seeking to strengthen the supporting cast around two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
«Milwaukee still retains a first-round pick to trade, and they are $14 million beneath the luxury tax,» commented an executive from the Eastern Conference. «I’ve witnessed teams create something from almost nothing.»
The Bucks boast an impressive 21 point per 100 possession advantage with Antetokounmpo on the floor — reflecting the disparity between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Sacramento Kings. This is why the Bucks remain optimistic about a significant playoff journey in the highly competitive Eastern Conference.
In spite of the team’s challenges, including a recent rout by the short-staffed Timberwolves, during which the home crowd hissed while Antetokounmpo responded in kind, various sources suggest that Milwaukee is more inclined to bolster their roster rather than consider trading away the franchise’s premier player.
What we’re observing: The conclusion of the Jonathan Kuminga narrative
The developments, spanning nearly as long as the forward’s four-plus-year career, seem to be approaching an end. Kuminga’s $22.5 million contract this season, with a $24 million team option for the 2026-27 season, was structured to facilitate movement, but the front office faces a hurdle: With the Warriors just $264,000 below the second apron, they are unable to absorb any extra salary in a deal involving Kuminga.
«At one point, there was uncertainty regarding what securing [Kuminga]’s contract would entail, but clarity has emerged for next season,» stated an executive from the Western Conference. «The downside is that both the team and the player have not effectively enhanced his value.» The Warriors also have four tradable first-round choices.
«It’s well-known they are likely to be aggressive with those picks to optimize the Steph [Curry] window,» stated one executive, «but they must have a target in sight to justify that.»
With Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, and Kuminga, theoretically, the Warriors could possess over $100 million in contracts expiring this summer to revamp their roster around Curry. Golden State’s ongoing homestand of eight games could serve as a crucial indicator of how the organization approaches the upcoming deadline.
What we’re observing: The possibility of pursuing a star aggressively
After three consecutive seasons without postseason appearances, with new governor Edward Rogers poised to assume full control of the team later this year, urgency is palpable in Toronto. The Raptors have been evaluating the trade worth of several players recently, including RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, numerous sources informed ESPN.
ESPN’s Shams Charania has disclosed Toronto’s interest in the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis and the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant. While other teams may hesitate to take on long-term commitments, the Raptors would be exchanging their own long-term deals to bring in these players, easing barriers to potential trades.
Toronto holds all its first- and second-round selections for the next seven years. Rival executives note two factors: a franchise that rarely pays the luxury tax is approximately $1 million over it, and having a portfolio of long-term contracts might deter prospective trade partners.
«Toronto will need to incentivize substantial offers with draft assets,» noted an Eastern executive. «They must manage to stay below the second apron next year with their existing roster.»
What we’re observing: Their continued search for a point guard
Competing teams have believed for months that the Wolves seek point guard assistance. Coach Chris Finch often eschews a traditional point guard in favor of off guards Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards.
Thus far, this approach has propelled Minnesota’s offense to rank sixth in the league, significantly aided by the strong health of the team’s core players and standout performances from Edwards and Julius Randle. However, after the Wolves made a decisive move to trade into the lottery for 2024 aiming to acquire point guard Rob Dillingham, the anticipation was that he could evolve into a long-term asset to partner with Edwards in the backcourt.
Instead, Bones Hyland — another player drafted by Timberwolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly during his tenure with the Nuggets — is receiving minutes over him.
Yet, it is believed that the front office is keen to improve their guard lineup while also trimming expenses, according to multiple league executives. (The Wolves face a $24 million luxury tax obligation after ownership incurred more than $90 million in tax last year.)
However, lacking any tradable first-round picks, significant alterations would necessitate parting with a vital rotation player — a challenge confronting many franchises, explaining why several executives noted this week that minor transactions will likely dominate this trading period.
Which teams will aim to reduce their roster?
What we’re observing: If the AD situation extends into summer
The most enticing prospect in trading for Davis, according to numerous rival executives, is potentially having him available for the playoffs, yet several sources inform ESPN that they believe the most judicious approach for Dallas would be to wait until summer.
«This presents an opportunity for them to remain patient and observe the developments,» stated an Eastern Conference executive.
The ongoing discourse surrounding the possibility of a Davis trade is fueled by the fact that the Mavericks are on track to be a nearly $400 million team in terms of total payroll and luxury taxes by the 2026-27 season — a figure that is widely deemed untenable across the league.
Nevertheless, Dallas has expressed intent to continue receiving calls up to the deadline, and may explore alternative avenues for reducing future expenditures and lowering their liabilities beyond a Davis transaction.
This would allow the Mavericks to determine the leadership structure of their front office, followed by deciding a strategy not only for Davis but also for Kyrie Irving, as they build around Cooper Flagg.
1:05
Is the Ja Morant-Grizzlies relationship salvageable?
Bobby Marks weighs in on the Grizzlies entertaining trade offers for Ja Morant.
What we’re observing: The trade landscape for Ja Morant
The recent news that Memphis is considering a Morant trade ignited reactions across the league reminiscent of the discussions that ensued when the Hawks initiated their dialogues regarding Trae Young earlier this month.
Similar to Young, the interest in Morant appears muted.
The Miami Heat, in particular, have been mischaracterized as a frontrunner for him, according to sources. The Heat have been explicitly focused on evading additional financial commitments for the 2027-28 offseason — a time when, at present, Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Donovan Mitchell, among others, could all become unrestricted free agents.
It is improbable that the Heat would veer from their course to pursue Morant, per sources.
Following the Hawks’ decision to engage in discussions for a potential Young trade, the Wizards were the sole team to express real interest, sources noted.
Will Morant attract more interest, especially considering his history of unavailability and the remaining two years and over $80 million on his contract? Many sources projected low demand, with Milwaukee frequently appearing as a potential candidate.
What we’re observing: How they handle Michael Porter Jr.
The most coveted trade asset among teams favoring a rebuilding strategy this year lies in Brooklyn. The 6-foot-10 Porter has enjoyed a standout season since his arrival from the Nuggets this summer, alongside a future unprotected first-round pick from Denver, in exchange for Cameron Johnson.
Porter is owed $38.3 million this season and $40.8 million next, making it challenging to match in a trade. Despite his strong performance in Brooklyn, his injury history (including three back surgeries and ongoing foot issues) diminishes his trade value from prior to the deal for Johnson, and he likely won’t experience comparable usage on a competing team if moved again. This could hinder Brooklyn’s prospects of fetching substantial returns in a trade.
The Nets have $15 million in cap space available— the highest in the league. This space could be utilized (in exchange for draft capital) for teams needing to partner up to offload a contract or two to facilitate another deal. They already possess 13 first-round and 19 second-round picks over the next seven years and will be aggressively seeking to acquire more in current trades before the February 5 deadline.
Which teams are still evaluating their options?
What we’re observing: A possible continuation of the Trae trade?
The Hawks achieved a significant milestone by trading Young and his $50 million player option for the upcoming season. Nevertheless, sources within the organization indicate that they still harbor aspirations for the current season.
Atlanta holds $42 million in expiring contracts with Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kennard, plus a $13 million trade exception and four assets eligible for trade in the first round — although inquiring teams should not expect to acquire unprotected swap rights that the Hawks possess with the Pelicans for June’s draft. Their financial books are mostly in order, too, as only Jalen Johnson will earn over $25 million next season.
This is why Atlanta has been linked to Davis trade speculations, yet the front office is keen on its young core, which will probably add another high-upside player through the draft with that Pelicans pick.
1:38
Why Stephen A. won’t ignore Rich Paul’s take on Austin Reaves
Stephen A. Smith explains why LeBron James is separating himself from Rich Paul’s take that the Lakers should trade Austin Reaves to the Grizzlies for Jaren Jackson Jr.
What we’re observing: A challenging decision in L.A.
The Lakers are reportedly exploring avenues to secure perimeter enhancement and rim protection, sources indicate. With Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Maxi Kleber, the front office possesses about $40 million in expiring contracts available for trades.
However, the Lakers are navigating through dual timelines. They wish to maximize the twilight of 41-year-old LeBron James‘ career while also considering the benefits of restructuring their roster around Luka Doncic. If James departs or retires post-season, the Lakers could re-sign Austin Reaves and still have $50 million in cap flexibility.
The team possesses one tradable first-round pick and can engage in up to five pick swaps, but they stand just $1.1 million below the first apron and are not allowed to exceed it, which restricts their ability to absorb short-term salary. Waiting until July could provide L.A. with three tradable first-round picks, cap room, and salary adaptability.
«They’ll likely seek cost-effective deals and might discover one if they’re open to assuming long-term financial commitments,» commented one Western general manager. «However, they need to ensure that the acquisition aligns well with Luka for validation.»
What we’re observing: Two pathways for the surprising contender
When the previous season concluded, the Celtics faced the prospect of a $500 million team budget. Despite various maneuvers, including the decisions not to retain Luke Kornet and Al Horford and trading away Jrue Holiday and Porzingis, the Celtics remain about $12 million over the luxury tax threshold.
Rival teams anticipated before the season that the Celtics would strive to move out of the tax and reset their repeater clock as Jayson Tatum recovers from an Achilles injury. However, this was prior to the Celtics establishing themselves in a tie for the second seed in the East.
Consequently, the Celtics are confronted with an intriguing dilemma: Should they aim to shed the tax burden, or should they leverage the $27 million expiring contract of Anfernee Simons to bring in a long-term addition?
The solution likely lies somewhere in between. Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens has consistently made transactions at the deadline to enhance the team — even if only marginally or as roster security, like incorporating depth players Mike Muscala in 2023 and Xavier Tillman in 2024.
