In the early afternoon games on Sunday, a new frontrunner for the NFL MVP emerged while the current titleholder stumbled, all within the competitive landscape of the AFC East.
The New England Patriots extended their impressive streak to seven consecutive wins, edging out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 28-23 scoreline. Entering the match as 2.5-point underdogs, New England has now achieved a remarkable 6-1 record against the spread since Week 4, the best in the league for that period.
Quarterback Drake Maye, who amassed 270 passing yards with two touchdowns and one interception, saw his MVP odds transformed, now listed at +250 on ESPN BET. Conversely, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who started the day as the favorite at +185, slipped to second place at +400.
Throughout the Patriots’ remarkable run, Maye has been DraftKings’ most favored candidate for MVP, with 20% of the bets and 19% of the handle backing him.
Additionally, the Miami Dolphins pulled off a significant upset, marking the third largest of the NFL season. According to Caesars and ESPN BET, this game was the most heavily wagered by handle during the early slate, and the Bills were noted as the most backed team on the money-line and spread for the 1 p.m. ET games. BetMGM indicated that Miami’s upset was a favorable outcome for the sportsbook.
Allen had an impressive performance, throwing for 306 yards and two TDs, but his interception and fumble proved costly, dropping his MVP odds to +750, where he now sits in fifth place, per ESPN BET.
With this outcome, the Patriots now stand as the AFC East favorites for the first time since Week 16 of the 2021 season, with a line of -225 at ESPN BET. Buffalo’s odds have fallen to +185, while the Dolphins and New York Jets trail significantly at 500-1.
According to current odds, the Bills are placed at +900 (sixth) for Super Bowl aspirations, while the Patriots are at +1800 (tied for 10th). Although New England is garnering increased betting attention during their winning stretch, sportsbooks view this trend as manageable, with BetMGM stating that a Patriots championship would be a favorable result for them.
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“For the AFC East, they are not favorable for the book; however, considering parlays on the divisions, we still maintain high hopes,” Caesars Sportsbook’s Joey Feazel remarked to ESPN, noting the Bills were widely favored in preseason division winner bets. «In terms of the AFC, they have been fortunate due to preseason bets on the Raiders, Steelers, Broncos, and Chiefs.»
Despite the upheaval in the division, Buffalo remains the most popular choice among bettors for the AFC East and was considered a strong pick for Super Bowl futures prior to the season, as per BetMGM insights.
Meanwhile, the Jets celebrated a minor upset by defeating the Cleveland Browns as 2.5-point underdogs. Initially, New York was listed as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line shifted after the team traded away all-pro defenders Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams earlier in the week. However, this outcome had minimal effects at Caesars, reported as its least wagered game of the 2025 NFL season.
Odds & Insights
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Maye wasn’t alone in making strides in the MVP race during Week 10. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford jumped to second place in the odds hierarchy after an impressive game, now at +325 on ESPN BET. Earlier in the day, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor set the season’s highest PPR fantasy points (49.6), elevating him to fourth place at +650 for MVP consideration.
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With their victory over the Atlanta Falcons, the Colts secured the honor of being the first team to exceed their preseason win total (7.5) this season.
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The Carolina Panthers were the top pick in the ESPN Eliminator Challenge (19%), as well as the $1,000 entry Circa Survivor contest (27.7%), before suffering a defeat against the New Orleans Saints 17-7. Carolina has now extended its streak of consecutive losses outright as a favorite to 11, marking the longest such sequence in the Super Bowl era. Their 5.5-point favorite status on Sunday marked their largest over this stretch, according to ESPN Research.
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The Houston Texans hit a peak money-line of +2500 during their divisional game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Houston managed to score four successive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to clinch the game, including a fumble recovery touchdown on the final play that allowed them to cover the -2.5 closing spread. “The Texans’ comeback was one of those classic ‘bad beat’ situations for the book,” Feazel from Caesars commented.
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Feazel has observed rising interest in the Baltimore Ravens: “The Ravens are emerging as a public favorite with Lamar [Jackson] regaining form. Their momentum is noticeable, and it’s not surprising they’ve been a big win for bettors.”
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Following 98 collective «No Picks» in the initial eight weeks of the season, there have now been no missed selections over the last two weeks in the Circa Survivor contest. Heading into Sunday, the implied value for each entry was $10,581, according to Circa.
