This could be a preview of the NFC Championship Game on Monday night, but when you examine both teams (who faced off in the playoffs last year), the first portion of the 2025 season has left much to be desired for each team.
The Eagles boast a 6-2 record reflecting their preseason hype, yet, simply put, the energy in Philadelphia hasn’t quite felt right leading up to last week’s bye. Conversely, the Packers seem like they’re in contention, yet their 5-2-1 record showcases some baffling performances. The latest was last week, where they suffered what many consider the biggest upset of the season, losing at home to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.
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With the Eagles and Packers closely aligned in the betting market’s power ratings for most of the season, a line shift over the weekend may be related to some roster changes on both sides.
Odds provided by BetMGM.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1, 45.5)
The initial line of Packers -2.5 suggested that oddsmakers believed bettors thought Green Bay was just under one point superior to Philadelphia (with at least a point and a half accounted for home-field advantage) — and from last Sunday to Friday, that held true.
The betting market has its quirks, as nothing concrete occurred over the weekend that would spark bettors’ interest in the Eagles. However, enough respected action came in on Philadelphia to move this game down to a pick’em at several sportsbooks.
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Perhaps it was simply a case of sharp money focusing on this matchup, because, if you reflect on each team — and the expectations of their performance on Monday night — there’s a compelling case for a standout showing from the Eagles and a subpar effort from the Packers.
The Eagles are emerging from a bye week that signifies the literal midpoint of the season. Despite Philly’s performance thus far, the latter half is what matters most to the organization. Supporting this, GM Howie Roseman made several trades prior to the deadline to enhance the Eagles’ issues with pass-rusher depth and bolster third (and fourth) cornerback positions. He could potentially have an excess of players on the roster by Monday if Nolan Smith is reintegrated into the lineup.
One of the Eagles’ poorest performances of the season — a Week 6 defeat against the Giants — occurred when CB Quinyon Mitchell (who has played every snap during non-garbage time) was only on the field for 19 plays, and DT Jalen Carter was absent. A squad rated like the defending Super Bowl champions hasn’t had a roster resembling that level at any point during this season.
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Week 1: Carter was ejected before the first play
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Week 2: Dallas Goedert was out
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Week 3: Mostly healthy (victory over the Rams)
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Week 4: Nolan Smith and Adoree Jackson absent
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Week 5: Smith and Jackson absent
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Week 6: Landon Dickerson, Carter, Smith absent
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Week 7: Nolan Smith and Za’Darius Smith absent
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Week 8: A.J. Brown, Jackson, Smith, and Smith absent
The Packers have not enjoyed optimum health, losing WR Jayden Reed in Week 2, but they were aware that WR Christian Watson wouldn’t return until the season’s midpoint. Defensively, the absence of DT Devonte Wyatt for a few games was more than compensated by adding DE Micah Parsons shortly before the season began, significantly boosting the Packers’ power rating in the market. Since starting the season with two wins and covers in five days, the Packers have managed just one point spread cover since, which required a comeback from a nine-point halftime deficit in Pittsburgh.
Now injuries are stacking up for Green Bay, with rising star TE Tucker Kraft out for the season, and right tackle Zach Tom listed as questionable; the Packers may need to adjust on the fly for Monday night. This is something the Eagles have managed repeatedly this season, finally finding enough stability to justify the line movement.
Pick: Eagles +1
Player props
Jalen Hurts: Over 194.5 passing yards (-115)
The top cornerback Kaisean Nixon has been underwhelming in coverage, and Carrington Valentine has fluctuated in and out of the lineup on a weekly basis. Neither player presents a significant deterrent against Brown or DeVonta Smith, and the Packers have allowed more pass completions to opposing tight ends (7.0 per game) than any other team. Hurts can target Goedert to sustain drives while also challenging Green Bay’s secondary deep down the field, reminiscent of last season’s opener where he threw for 278 yards in a Week 1 shootout. The Packers should prompt the Eagles to expand their offense, and Hurts should be capable of executing for substantial gains.
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RB Josh Jacobs under 69.5 rushing yards (-118)
While he doesn’t need to reach 90 yards to surpass his rushing total, it’s noteworthy that Jacobs has only attained that figure once this season (against the vulnerable Bengals defense), after achieving it five times last year.
With the Packers’ offense shifting towards a more pass-dominant style with their array of receiving talents, and a split of snaps that has leaned 60-40 between him and the other Green Bay running backs, since their Week 5 bye, Jacobs hasn’t logged 20 carries in a game, after previously having that workload twice.
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When the Eagles are operating at their peak (and healthiest), their run defense forces teams into passing scenarios, and their offense maintains possession long enough to cultivate impatience when the opposition finally receives the ball back. If we presume a high-caliber performance from the Eagles in prime time, this could lead to relatively limited chances for Jacobs, who has yet to break a run longer than 19 yards this season.
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WR Romeo Doubs over 4.5 receptions (-105)
How will Jordan Love respond without Tucker Kraft — his most dependable target (32 receptions on 44 attempts)? Likely looking more toward another sizable option and his second-most trustworthy receiver (34 grabs on 52 opportunities).
Due in part to Kraft’s absence and partly because of a competitive game situation, Love targeted Doubs 10 times last week, marking the fourth instance in the last five games where Doubs received at least eight passes aimed in his direction.
With sufficient options available for Doubs to navigate the formation, the Packers should generate favorable matchups, permitting Love to seek him out the usual number of times, suggesting potential for five or more catches.
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Anytime touchdown
Jalen Hurts: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+140)
Instead of trying to anticipate who will receive the ball or risking a bet on either Saquon Barkley or Hurts for a rushing touchdown, let’s take the favorable odds on Hurts to throw for two touchdowns.
After beginning the season without a passing touchdown, teams might have stacked the box in the red zone or challenged Hurts to succeed from farther out. Either way, he has delivered, racking up two or more touchdown passes in five of his last six outings, totaling seven across the two games leading up to the Eagles’ bye week.
Christian Watson (+300)
Following a 10% increase in his snaps from the first game of his season in Week 8 to the subsequent game in Week 9, Watson is expected to step in as the No. 2 receiver, regardless of the number of players available at his position to participate.
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As the Packers’ primary deep threat, Watson has already hauled in a 33-yard reception and a 52-yarder, though neither resulted in touchdowns. The Eagles’ safeties are vulnerable to deep plays, and Watson’s height makes him an excellent target in the red zone — evidenced by his 14 touchdowns in 38 career games prior to this season.
Luke Musgrave (+333)/John FitzPatrick (+850)
Even though Kraft (who has scored six touchdowns this season) is unavailable, it doesn’t indicate that Matt LaFleur has discarded the “tight end chapter” from the playbook. Musgrave was selected ahead of Kraft in 2023, and prior to sustaining rookie season injuries that propelled Kraft into the limelight, Musgrave was generally regarded as the superior prospect and should be capable of adequately substituting for Kraft in the Packers’ offensive scheme.
Meanwhile, John FitzPatrick moves into the No. 2 tight end spot. Of the pair, he is actually the one who has already recorded a touchdown. Diversifying plays across the two remaining Green Bay tight ends could be an effective strategy to leverage the Packers’ adaptation without Kraft.
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You can find more insightful betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
