Of all the teams vying for one of the 48 spots in the newly expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup field, it is not an exaggeration to say that San Marino is literally the worst, ranking 210th out of 210 eligible teams in FIFA’s men’s world rankings.
With a population of just over 34,000 — making it the fifth-smallest recognized country in the world — San Marino is actually the larger but significantly less famous of two microstates within Italy (as far as we know, Vatican City does not have a FIFA-recognized squad). Thus far, in its quest to play for the world’s soccer championship in North America next summer, La Serenissima have lost every one of their seven World Cup qualifying matches, scoring just one goal and allowing 32.
So, you’d be forgiven for assuming that all hope is lost for San Marino to play in the next World Cup — but that is not actually so. For it to happen, though, there will have to be a very specific chain of events … potentially culminating in San Marino having to lose its final World Cup qualifying match by as many goals as possible.
The unlikeliest series of events
European teams are awarded 16 of the 48 World Cup bids. After a lengthy round-robin qualifying format, which ends on Nov. 18, the first-place finishers in each of the 12 groups earn an automatic bid. The 12 second-place finishers each advance to a 16-team playoff with the remaining four UEFA bids still up for grabs.
Here’s where it gets a bit complicated. The final four spots in that playoff are reserved for the highest-ranked teams who won one of the 14 UEFA Nations League groups back in 2024. As fate would have it, San Marino actually won its three-team Nations League group for the 2024-25 season, notching two wins over Liechtenstein (another European microstate) and holding off Gibraltar with a draw and a loss.
San Marino is ranked 14th out of these 14 Nations League teams, so in order for one of these four playoff spots to fall into their laps, they need 10 of the 13 teams ranked ahead of them in this «winners list» to not need the bid. In other words, if — and only if — at least 10 of those countries finish first (and directly qualify for the World Cup) or second (and already qualify for a playoff spot) in their World Cup groups. And, this is where things start to get messy.
As we enter the final week of qualifying games, eight teams that could have earned Nations League bids have already qualified for the World Cup and, therefore, don’t need them. Which means that San Marino’s hopes basically rely on having just two other countries pull out a second-place finish in their groups.
If Nations League group winner Northern Ireland beats Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier on Friday, they would move into second in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group A and be in very good shape to stay there. Then, on Saturday, if Romania — yet another Nations League group winner — defeats Bosnia and Herzegovina, those two countries would be tied for second in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group H — a group which also includes San Marino.
Should this sequence of events come to pass, it will set up the scenario where, when San Marino plays Romania on Nov. 18, La Serenissima will be incentivized to lose by as many goals as possible to ensure the Romanians move on in the traditional World Cup qualifying process and abandon their slot in the Nations League playoff, allowing San Marino to take that spot.
It’s the kind of dizzying logistical nightmare that FIFA has been trying to avoid since the «Disgrace of Gijón,» when West Germany and Austria allegedly colluded in their final group stage match to allow both teams to advance in the 1982 World Cup, subsequently eliminating Algeria. That match catalyzed FIFA to institute the now familiar rule that all final World Cup group stage matches be played simultaneously.
What are the sportsbooks thinking?
If San Marino does find itself with incentive to lose to Romania by as much as possible, though, it begs the question: How would sportsbooks make lines for the match?
For starters, it should be noted that World Cup qualifying handle is not currently a popular betting commodity for soccer, let alone compared to the rest of the menu at sportsbooks: BetMGM soccer trader Tom Pullin told ESPN over email that «interest in World Cup qualifying has been good, but not as high as regular league football like the Premier League.» Further, he said that San Marino’s matches don’t stand out unless they play a high-profile team.
In these World Cup qualifiers, San Marino has, predictably, not been given a chance by bookmakers. At ESPN BET, San Marino’s shortest odds to win a match were against Cyprus on Oct. 12 when it was +1300 on the three-way moneyline. It’s longest odds were an astounding 100-1 against Austria just one match prior on Oct. 9. On the flip side, Cyprus was -600 to win, while Austria was not even listed because the odds were too short.
The big-money bettors who did tune in for these matches also predictably faded San Marino at every turn, according to BetMGM and DraftKings. However, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer and UK sports Mark Bickerdike said that many bettors «love a big underdog story,» so the book racked up solid liability on lots of smaller wagers at long odds.
Which brings us back to the potential «doomsday scenario» on Nov. 18. Given San Marino is already as low as can be in the power ratings, sportsbooks will likely be motivated to list Romania as short as humanly possible, with the possibility of not even listing a money line for them at all, assuming San Marino is incentivized to get demolished.
«We would usually treat San Marino matches slightly differently given the disparity between them and most of the other teams,» said Pullin. «For a potential hypothetical situation like you described, the trading team will use market/bets they field as a guide to where prices should be with consideration to the possible higher goal scoring in the initial price.»
But for the scenario to even come to fruition, Northern Ireland (+310) will have to upset Slovakia (EVEN), and Romania (+185) will have to upset Bosnia and Herzegovina (+140). A parlay of those two results from the three-way money lines yields +1069 odds, per ESPN BET lines.
«Along with the rest of the industry, we are waiting until we know the outcome of the Bosnia-Romania game on Saturday before deciding on releasing prices for the Romania-San Marino fixture,» Bickerdike said over email. «It will be a unique scenario if it plays out.»
But should the extraordinary happen and San Marino actually does end up with a chance to advance in World Cup qualifying by losing a match spectacularly, it sets up an absolutely epic dilemma. FIFA rules, of course, prohibit teams from purposely losing matches, but given how poorly things have already gone for San Marino in World Cup qualifying — one of its matches against Austria ended in a 10-0 drubbing — it would be difficult to prove that La Serenissima did anything out of the ordinary at all.
