The College Football Playoff selection committee’s third ranking is guaranteed to look different Tuesday night after Oklahoma’s win at Alabama, but how different depends on … Notre Dame.
The biggest question facing the group this week is how the two-loss teams will stack up, and assuming the committee rewards Oklahoma’s head-to-head win against the Tide, the duo will likely be a package deal — either above Notre Dame, or below. Have the Irish done enough to remain the committee’s top two-loss team? Or will the Sooners’ statement win push Notre Dame down, even after the Irish won at Pitt?
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do when it reveals its third of six rankings Tuesday night (8:30 ET, ESPN).
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Ranking | Bracket
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have already won over the room, and nothing happened Saturday in a lopsided win against UCLA that would alter that perception. Former CFP selection committee chair Mack Rhoades said Tuesday that there has been a «really clear consensus in the room» that Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the country. «Really good defensively, particularly up front,» Rhoades said. «Their offensive line play is outstanding. They have the great playmakers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The quarterback [Julian] Sayin right now leads the country in passing efficiency and completion percentage.» Ohio State entered Saturday ranked in the top three in offensive and defensive efficiencies.
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Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes after Ohio State and Indiana overwhelmed similar unranked opponents. One of the Buckeyes’ few weaknesses, though, is the lowest strength of schedule (No. 42) of the committee’s top-four teams.
Need to know: The Buckeyes still have not clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Wolverines kept their CFP hopes alive Saturday by avoiding an upset to Northwestern, and a win against the committee’s No. 1 team would catapult them into contention. It’s the only CFP top-25 team left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: Though Ohio State has separated itself at the top, there shouldn’t be much debate this week between the Hoosiers and No. 3 Texas A&M. Indiana again asserted itself against a weaker opponent in Wisconsin, while the Aggies needed an epic comeback to survive three-win South Carolina. Indiana entered Week 12 leading the nation in total efficiency, and No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and game control. Over the past few weeks, Indiana’s defense has earned the committee’s respect and is one of the reasons the Hoosiers have been ranked ahead of the Aggies. «We give Indiana certainly the edge — offensively, they’re the top-scoring offense in the country,» Rhoades said. «Their defense is ranked second.»
Why they could be higher: With the committee’s top three all winning — and Ohio State and Indiana playing sub-.500 teams — it’s hard to imagine the committee changing the order Tuesday.
Need to know: Indiana still hasn’t clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game. Even with its win against Wisconsin, the Hoosiers also needed Week 12 losses by Michigan, Oregon and USC.
Toughest remaining game: The Hoosiers have only one left: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It’s on a Friday night against an in-state rival, and Indiana has at least a 96% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
Matt Zollers, who was playing for injured starter Beau Pribula.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Aggies move up after needing a 28-point second-half to beat South Carolina by one point — especially a week after the committee kept the status quo when the Aggies went on the road and beat their No. 22 team, Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M still has not clinched a spot in the SEC title game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It’s the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies’ schedule.
Why they could be here: Georgia can now move ahead of two-loss Alabama in spite of the head-to-head loss on Sept. 27 because the Bulldogs have fewer losses. In addition to soundly beating what was the committee’s No. 10 team in Texas, Georgia also earned a small promotion from Alabama dropping. Georgia’s win against Ole Miss will continue to keep it above the Rebels, and the road win against Tennessee gives the Bulldogs a stronger résumé than Texas Tech. Georgia entered Saturday ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, followed by Texas Tech at No. 9. Georgia’s strength of schedule was also No. 11 compared to the Red Raiders, whose schedule was ranked No. 47, according to ESPN Analytics.
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia after a dominant win against their No. 10 team when Texas Tech’s win came against a 4-6 UCF team.
Need to know: Georgia has not clinched a spot in the SEC title game yet. It needed a win AND a Texas A&M loss, but the Aggies had the biggest comeback in school history to beat South Carolina.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The one-loss Yellow Jackets pushed their in-state rival to eight overtimes last year, and continue to find ways to win this season, even if it’s not pretty.
Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe Texas is better, even with three losses. It wouldn’t be the first time a three-loss SEC team was ranked ahead of two-losses teams. Last year, three-loss Alabama was No. 11 ahead of two-loss Miami and two-loss BYU.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Utah would be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which this week we project will be Navy.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Kansas. The only difference between this five-loss team and five-loss K-State is that it’s on the road.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Navy (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
