World Cup qualifying: Wales’ permutations for 2026 tournament

World Cup qualifier: Wales v North Macedonia

Venue: Cardiff City Stadium Date: Tuesday 18 November Kick-off: 19:45 GMT

Coverage: Live on BBC iPlayer, BBC One Wales, BBC Sounds, BBC Radio Wales, Radio Cymru and Sports Extra, BBC Sport website and app, plus live text commentary.

Wales’ route to the 2026 World Cup is now all about permutations and play-offs.

And after Saturday’s 1-0 win in Liechtenstein, the path to next summer’s finals will be, decided by a final-day shootout with North Macedonia.

Cardiff City Stadium will be sold out on Tuesday as Wales’ Red Wall of fans hope for another memorable night under the lights.

This is what will be at stake for manager Craig Bellamy’s side.

Technically, Wales – or North Macedonia – could still qualify automatically after Belgium, who lead Group J by two points, were held by to a 1-1 draw by 10-man Kazakhstan in Astana.

But Belgium’s last game is against Liechtenstein in Liege, where a win would confirm automatic qualification as group winners.

With Belgium holding a superior goal difference over their rivals, even a draw against Liechtenstein – who are already eliminated after losing all seven group games – would probably be enough.

With Wales and North Macedonia neck-and-neck on 13 points, whoever wins on Tuesday will take the runners-up spot.

But Wales’ failure to close the goal difference gap means that a draw will also be enough for the visitors, whose goal difference is five better than that of Wales.

A win by six or more goals in Vaduz would have given Wales that advantage of going into the final game knowing a point would secure second spot.

Now, without goalscorer Jordan James and captain Ethan Ampadu who will both be suspended against North Macedonia after collecting their second bookings of the campaign, Wales have no option but to win.

However, even if Wales do not win on Tuesday, they are certain of a place in March’s play-offs as one of the Uefa Nations League group winners.

But they would automatically be among the lowest seeds in the draw for the semi-finals.

And, crucially, that means they would have to face a top seed away from home in the one-off tie.

Conversely, if Wales beat North Macedonia and finish as runners-up, they would be guaranteed a home semi-final in the play-offs.

The hosts of the final will be decided by a draw.

With a full round of matches to play, the identity of potential play-off opponents is still up in the air.

Apart from the Nations League group winners who are automatically in pot four of the play-offs, the remaining pots are decided by the Fifa rankings and confirmed after this week’s final fixtures.

Sweden, Northern Ireland and Romania are all certain to be in pot four, with either Wales or North Macedonia joining them.

They will face a top seed away from home – and as it stands, it looks likely that could be Italy, Turkey, Ukraine or Poland. Denmark would be a top-seeded team if Scotland beat them to automatic qualification from Group C.

If Wales fail to beat North Macedonia, it would require a win away at one of those nations to progress to a play-off final and keep their World Cup hopes alive.

A win on Tuesday would likely leave Wales in pot two, with a home semi-final against a third seed.

If that happens, potential opponents would include the Czech Republic, Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, although things could change.

Even if Wales win that game, they may still have to beat a pot one side in the play-off final to reach next summer’s finals.

The only sides Wales would definitely avoid are teams also in pot two. Currently they are set to include Hungary, Slovakia and Scotland – although they could still qualify automatically.

With all group fixtures finishing on Tuesday, the seeds will be confirmed by world governing body Fifa on Wednesday prior to Thursday’s draw for the play-offs. The draw will take place from midday in Zurich.

Immediately afterwards, the draw for which of the winning sides will host the final will take place.

The semi-finals are set to take place on Thursday, 26 March with the finals scheduled for Tuesday, 31 March.

The four winners of those finals will take Europe’s final four spots at the World Cup which is being held in Canada, Mexico and the United States.