With only three Saturdays left before Selection Day, the College Football Playoff landscape features 19 Power 4 teams still vying for their respective conference championships in anticipation of the committee’s third ranking of six on Tuesday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Six teams (Virginia, Georgia Tech, SMU, Miami, Duke, and Pitt) remain in contention for the ACC title. Four teams (Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss) are still in the race for the SEC championship game — and according to ESPN Research, there are no SEC clinching scenarios set for Week 13. As for the Big 12, no team is guaranteed, with Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, and Arizona State all still in the running.
While the Big Ten seems mostly settled with Ohio State and Indiana pulling ahead, Oregon, USC, and Michigan still have a slim chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game.
There’s still ample opportunity for teams on the bubble following Week 12.
The bubble watch reflects insights gained from the committee to date — combined with historical understanding of their processes. Teams classified as Would be in below are positioned in this week’s bracket based on the latest top 12 projection. For every Power 4 conference, we’ve outlined Last team in and First team out. These represent the genuine bubble teams teetering on the edge of inclusion. Teams marked Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but need to make strides and may require assistance. A team designated as Out will have to wait until next season.
The conferences listed below are organized by the anticipated number of bids they’d secure, ranked from most to least, according to this week’s top-12 projection. Return after Tuesday night’s ranking for an updated edition reflecting the committee’s third ranking out of six.
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The defeat to Oklahoma didn’t eliminate the Tide in the latest projection, yet it placed them in a must-win scenario and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. With only one SEC loss, Alabama still holds the highest probability of making it to the conference championship game (71.9%), per ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns are presented with one of the prime remaining opportunities to impress the selection committee as they collide with Texas A&M in their regular-season finale. If the committee places Texas at the No. 13 ranking on Tuesday night just ahead of No. 14 Vanderbilt, a path to the playoffs becomes more attainable. Conversely, if the committee ranks the Longhorns below the top 13, a victory over the Aggies may not suffice for securing an at-large bid.
Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. Vandy may find themselves still behind Texas due to their victory over the Longhorns, thus the Commodores will need to triumph over Kentucky and Tennessee while also seeking some assistance to stay competitive.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This scenario could swiftly shift if Oregon falters at home against USC on Saturday, given concerns regarding the Ducks’ No. 31 strength of schedule. The November 8 victory at Iowa was notable, but the Hawkeyes are currently a four-loss squad. Additionally, the Ducks face a substantial home loss to Indiana, which contributes to only a 12% likelihood of them qualifying for the Big Ten title game.
First team out: USC. Much like Oregon, USC has strengthened its résumé with a hard-fought victory over a competent Iowa team that is possibly the committee’s only ranked team with four losses on Tuesday night. The Trojans’ two defeats were by a combined 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — both away games. USC boasts a significant win against Michigan, enhancing their standing and providing a tiebreaker in the Big Ten ranking. If USC triumphs at Oregon (and avoids a disheartening home defeat to UCLA), they could surpass the Ducks as the final Big Ten team in.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines dodged elimination on Saturday with a narrow 24-22 victory over Northwestern. They still have an opportunity to defeat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and a win there would surpass anything else in the nation. Should Michigan manage to finish strongly, they would have one of the best two-loss resumes nationally but would still trail USC unless the Trojans stumble again. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma appears more palatable now that the Sooners rank among the top 10.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are on the verge of securing a first-round bye and boast the highest likelihood of claiming the Big 12 title (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but could secure a spot in the Big 12 championship if both Cincinnati and Arizona State experience losses. The October 18 defeat to Arizona State shouldn’t hinder Texas Tech from making the CFP if they conclude as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given the favorable view the committee has shown towards them thus far. Texas Tech will cap off the regular season at 4-7 against West Virginia.
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First team out: BYU. The Cougars excelled during Saturday’s commanding victory over TCU, but our projection indicates they would still be excluded from the playoff today to accommodate one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. BYU still possesses the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can secure a position with a win against Cincinnati this Saturday, coupled with losses from both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU triumphs in the league, they are a CFP lock. But if BYU loses, their chances would depend on how closely contested the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to grant BYU an at-large bid should they perform poorly as they did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah maintains an 11.9% opportunity to reach the Big 12 championship, with ASU following at 8.4% and Cincinnati at 1.9% chance.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The Hurricanes are noted here as they stand as the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still theoretically capable of contending for the conference championship. Until the participants of that game are determined, the committee’s top-ranked ACC team will persist in the projections since six teams remain in contention, making it most equitable to reflect the committee’s stance. Nevertheless, Miami’s most viable path to CFP inclusion at present is through an at-large bid, given they only have a 7.1% chance of reaching the ACC title game. Georgia Tech can secure a spot in the game with a victory against Pitt on Saturday, while Virginia can clinch a spot if Duke, Pitt, and SMU all lose.
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First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets narrowly defeated a 1-10 Boston College team by two points and are one win away from a guaranteed spot in the ACC championship game. They also have the opportunity for a significant top-five victory in their regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech fails to win against Georgia, they will need to conquer the ACC to secure a playoff position as a three-loss ACC runner-up would be ineligible.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia currently has the strongest likelihood to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU follows in third place (38%), with Duke (11%), and Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. A primary question the committee faces this week concerns how they will differentiate between the top two-loss teams, including Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma. Should OU and Bama rank above the Irish, Notre Dame would likely hold steady at No. 10. If Notre Dame is regarded as the committee’s top two-loss team, it could climb as high as No. 8 following their 37-15 triumph over Pitt. Notre Dame’s notable victories are against USC, Navy, and Pitt, which will be evaluated alongside the records of both Oklahoma and Alabama. The committee’s ranking of Navy this week will also affect Notre Dame’s position, particularly since they defeated a Midshipmen team that was missing starting quarterback Blake Horvath. Provided the Irish close the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, they should secure playoff placement — regardless of their ranking among the top two-loss teams on Tuesday night.
Group of 5
Would be in: Navy. By defeating the committee’s No. 24 ranked team, South Florida, on Saturday, the Midshipmen have arguably achieved the best victory among the leading contenders — alongside the best defeat, at Notre Dame. However, their head-to-head loss against North Texas will require discussion in the committee room, as will the fact that both losses took place away from home.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. Among these teams, JMU has the highest strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40), but ranks lowest regarding strength of schedule (No. 119). Tulane may offer the most balanced profile, sitting at No. 25 in strength of record while holding No. 71 in strength of schedule. Their top victories came against Northwestern, Duke, and Memphis, yet none of these are ranked among the CFP top-25.
Bracket
Based on this week’s projection, the preliminary seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Navy (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Navy/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
