Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 PM ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)
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Last week’s list was pretty spot on, most notably with the Michael Wilson explosion. Chase Brown also had a very strong day with plenty of pass volume, and the pair of elite WRs I tabbed for a down day both had exactly that; Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown combined for just five catches. On to Week 12 …
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Emanuel Wilson, RB, Packers
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 19.6 carries, 2.9 receptions, 108 yards, 0.82 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB6 vs. RB59
This one is contingent upon Josh Jacobs missing this week, which is looking fairly likely as of this writing. Assuming that’s the case, Wilson sets up as an absolute smash play in Week 12. He picked up basically all of the work when Jacobs left the game last week, and that would figure to continue into this week. He’s a capable pass-catcher who would get a ton more work through the air, as well as most on the ground in a game that Green Bay is nearly a full touchdown favorite. The projection here is insanely good.
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Darnell Mooney (and KhaDarel Hodge), WR, Falcons
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 8.5 targets, 4.6 receptions, 62 yards, 0.31 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: WR25 vs. WR44
Drake London sustained a knee injury at the end of last week’s game and is almost certain to miss this week. When that happens, Mooney will step up as the team’s top pass-catcher. He’s been quiet this year after an early-season injury, but the coachspeak of late has been very favorable. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson has had this to say about him over the last couple of weeks (source: Coachspeak Index Discord):
“[Darnell] Mooney is so close to breaking out. I’m excited to see when that’s gonna come up … He’s very close to breaking out. I can feel it in practice.
We’ve said the last couple weeks that it feels like Darnell Mooney is close to being unlocked. I anticipate him getting a high volume of targets at some point here, and I anticipate him taking off.»
With London now out, there isn’t a more obvious time for the team to get Mooney going. They’re likely to go with a very run-heavy game plan with Michael Penix Jr. also out, but they face a fast-paced Saints team in a game that projects for the most play volume of the entire week.
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Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 20.5 attempts, 1.2 receptions, 105 yards, 0.86 TD
Week 11 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB20
Given his lack of pass-catching involvement, it’s rare for Henry to crack the top-10 projected running backs on any given week. But when he does, it’s in matchups like this one. When Baltimore is playing from ahead, Henry tends to get more work in the pass game and a heavier load on the ground as the team tries to salt the game away. As 13.5-point favorites against the Jets, this very much sets up as a Derrick Henry kind of game.
Tyler Warren, TE, Colts
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, 53 yards, 0.39 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: TE5 vs. TE3
Warren has established himself as a premier fantasy tight end this year, but this week doesn’t set up especially favorably for him. The Colts go on the road, outdoors, into Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, which is going to be a tough spot for QB Daniel Jones to bounce back from his recent rough outings. Moreover, Warren does better against zone defenses, but the Chiefs play zone at the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce have tended to be more successful against man shells, so it’s possible we see the offense shift more their way in a week where the upside for the offense as a whole is more limited than usual.
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Breece Hall, RB, Jets
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 17.4 carries, 2.8 receptions, 95 yards, 0.42 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: RB15 vs. RB8
Hall is the anti-Henry this week, with game script very much working against him. The Jets are playing as nearly two-full-touchdown underdogs, which should mean minimal opportunities for him to run as the game gets out of hand. It’s also possible the team goes more pass-heavy than usual, even early on, with Tyrod Taylor under center. In their lone game starting Taylor earlier this year, the team was 5% more pass-heavy than average (adjusted for context) compared to 13% below-average in games with Justin Fields. And while Hall certainly has plenty of pass-catching ability, he simply hasn’t been used in that role as much this year as in the past.
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings
THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 34.8 attempts, 19.7 completions, 215 yards, 1.26 TD
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Week 11 vs. ROS: 15.5 points vs. 17.7 points per game
I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong, and so far I have been very wrong on McCarthy. I still think any half-way competent NFL quarterback should be able to succeed in his position — great coaching and system, great supporting cast, home games indoors. McCarthy has at least, in part, been on the bad side of variance, but this week does not set up as a particularly good one for a bounce-back. He faces a tough Green Bay defense on the road, away from the dome.
