Predictions: Benavidez vs Yarde, Haney vs Norman, more for Ring IV

Tomorrow’s Ring IV pay-per-view event from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia features four world title bouts, highlighted by David Benavidez against Anthony Yarde and Devin Haney meeting Brian Norman Jr, both of which might be viewed as the least compelling of the top four fights on the card.

Here’s a look at the lineup along with some forecasts. Who do YOU think will emerge victorious in tomorrow’s bouts and walk away from Riyadh with championship titles to cap off their boxing year?

Watch Benavidez vs Yarde, Haney vs Norman, and the entire Ring IV card LIVE on DAZN!

David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde

Yarde (27-3, 24 KO) has participated in similar matchups previously. He improved his record to 18-0 against subpar competition before facing Sergey Kovalev, where he valiantly lost. After taking victories over two less skilled opponents and suffering an upset against Lyndon Arthur, he later won a rematch with Arthur, added another unremarkable win, and faced Artur Beterbiev, only to lose bravely again. Following the bout with Beterbiev, he has registered three unremarkable wins and another victory over Arthur in a trilogy that many didn’t ask for, leading him to this point.

History indicates that this is the type of opponent Yarde, now 34, battles hard against, demonstrating his grit but ultimately falling short due to a skill set that has consistently failed to match the hype and physical attributes.

Nevertheless, I believe Yarde has demonstrated notable progress in recent years, including in his loss to Beterbiev, where he was stopped like many others who are not as skilled as Dmitry Bivol have been.

Benavidez (30-0, 24 KO) stands out as one of my favorite fighters and narratives in recent boxing history. He is exciting in the ring, seemingly eager for the most challenging bouts he can secure — and more than that, he genuinely wants the encounters that have eluded him — and he has overcome issues that, in my opinion, stemmed mostly from immaturity, taking responsibility for his past and moving forward. Young fighters who have trained alongside him in recent times speak of him as a mentor, sharing insights on how he almost derailed his career and advising they avoid similar mistakes.

Today, he presents as a matured, well-rounded fighter, radiating confidence akin to that of a champion. Yarde represents a solid opponent, likely as good as Benavidez could currently face, yet it would be quite a shock if Yarde were to defeat Benavidez, especially considering how much more at ease Benavidez appeared at 175 last time out, his second encounter at that weight, compared to his debut against Oleksandr Gvozdyk in June 2024. While his power might not be what it was at 168, he was never known as a devastating one-punch striker, either; the difference now is that what used to slowly wear opponents down may not force them into submission as effectively. He still has enough power to be acknowledged and felt in the ring.

Does this match truly deserve the title of THE BIGGEST AND GREATEST BOXING SHOW OF THE YEAR? Certainly not; I do not work for DAZN or Riyadh Season so I am not obliged to insist Benavidez vs Yarde is a blockbuster. However, it’s an interesting matchup, likely to be a tough fight, and the victor is poised for an even larger opportunity next, whether against Dmitry Bivol or, at the very least for Benavidez, against Beterbiev.

Prediction: Benavidez by unanimous decision

Devin Haney vs Brian Norman Jr

When this bout was agreed upon, I made it clear then and will stand by my comment; this may be an exceptionally challenging matchup for Devin Haney.

That being said… Devin Haney and his father are astute about these matters, and if they weren’t genuinely confident that Haney (32-0, 15 KO) can out-box Norman and claim the WBO welterweight title, they likely would avoid this match. Earlier this year, the Haneys employed clever, cautious matchmaking with Jose Ramirez, which got Devin back into the ring for a win against an opponent past his prime who posed little threat, as Jose is not known for throwing punches anymore.

Brian Norman is a different challenge altogether. I appreciate Brian Norman as a fighter, but I won’t allow myself to get caught in wishful thinking simply because I enjoy watching him or respect his determination and diligence in earning a world title. Devin Haney possesses the skill to out-box Brian Norman for the full 12 rounds, or enough to decisively win on the judges’ scorecards. There isn’t an active welterweight Haney can’t adequately out-box to secure a victory.

However, I do believe that Haney’s skills are somewhat inflated; his craft isn’t as comprehensive as many suggest, as he’s truly not a defensive genius or exceptionally slick like Floyd Mayweather or others, and I also had numerous doubts regarding his confidence before and after the Ramirez match, despite the fact that he won it convincingly on paper.

Norman is at his prime. He naturally outweighs Haney. He’s a strong puncher and possesses an aggressive style, seeking to force Devin into action, and I doubt he’ll give Haney the space he needs to settle in. Devin has a very effective jab, when utilized correctly, and it can govern fights. Additionally, he excels at the jab-and-clinch tactic, which, albeit unpleasant to watch, allows him to land strikes effectively, catch the judges’ favor, and then neutralize the pace.

Nonetheless, it’s Norman’s fierce approach and confidence that would concern me if I were part of Devin’s team. Any match involving Devin Haney carries a significant risk of being tedious, but I find myself curious about this particular fight, despite previous experiences. If Haney enjoys a flawless or nearly flawless night, victory will be his, and Brian Norman will face a harsh “levels” reality. My intuition, however, suggests that things may not transpire that way and that Haney at 147 may not perform as he did at 135.

Prediction: Norman by TKO, round 10

Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez vs Francisco Martinez

This matchup isn’t as filled with chatter as the two previous bouts, but it stands out as the premier fight on the card and is highly significant for its division.

Rodriguez (22-0, 15 KO) holds two world titles and is universally regarded in the P4P top 10. Over the past few years, he’s emerged as one of boxing’s notable young talents, and at just 25, it seems he has a long reign ahead of him, provided moving up in weight doesn’t present a problem; I believe he’s capable of competing effectively at 118 and possibly 122 as well. (While we’ve witnessed numerous impressive ascents through weight divisions lately, moving four divisions should never be viewed as a certainty; we must avoid complacency in our expectations.)

Martinez (18-0, 9 KO) lacks the hype and promotional push of Bam, yet the 34-year-old Argentine is a noteworthy fighter. His two away victories over Kazuto Ioka strongly indicate his legitimacy, affirming that he’s not just a paper champion or someone with a soft record. Additionally, his wins over Jerwin Ancajas (twice) and Jade Bornea attest to his quality.

I’m inclined to support Bam, as I consider him the superior fighter with more versatility. However, I anticipate this will be his most challenging match to date. Martinez brings intelligence, experience, craftiness, and solid ability to the table. While he may not be a significant knockout threat, I think he can go the distance and put an end to Bam’s streak of four consecutive stoppages.

Prediction: Rodriguez by unanimous decision

Abdullah Mason vs Sam Noakes

While I might take issue with the excessive hype surrounding the event regarding the top two fights, I find myself genuinely excited about the latter two. The encounter between Rodriguez and Martinez represents an authentic championship unification, with the leading competitors at 115 lbs facing off for nearly all the accolades. (Willibaldo Garcia somehow possesses one of these accolades.)

I’m particularly enthusiastic about this matchup because it involves two rising talents, one a genuine prospect and the other slightly aged for that label, both vying for their first world title against one another.

We will discover a significant amount about Mason (19-0, 17 KO), and Noakes (17-0, 15 KO) as well; however, I think the age difference between them is significant. Mason, at 21, is considerably younger and has had several appropriately challenging bouts during which he performed in the way one would wish him to — against Yohan Vasquez, Luis Lebron, Carlos Ornelas, and most recently Jeremia Nakathila. When nurturing a prospect like Mason, it’s essential to match them against suitable competition while ensuring they dominate, and he succeeded in that regard.

Noakes, at 28, has already captured the British, Commonwealth, and European titles at 135 lbs. He’s achieved everything possible short of claiming a world title. I appreciate Noakes’ style and enjoy watching him. Both fighters have demonstrated power and significant skill, and we also know Noakes can execute a strategic 12-round fight and secure victory, as evidenced against Yvan Mendy and Ryan Walsh, opponents who stood firm and challenged him. In contrast, Mason has yet to surpass the sixth round, raising questions about whether Noakes and his team might choose to ease off the intensity early on, intending to increase the pace in the middle rounds and venture into unfamiliar territory to challenge an adversary lacking experience.

This is the most challenging fight for me to predict on the card, and it’s not that I believe the other matchups are undeserving of the same uncertainty. I have the utmost confidence in Benavidez winning, then Rodriguez, then Haney, but this bout — I’m unsure if it’s even a 50/50 because there’s still so much to uncover about Mason. Noakes appears to be the more polished product, and he’s a decent fighter. The outcome of this matchup will largely depend on how good Abdullah Mason truly is. I’m taking my chance in this uncertain prediction.

Prediction: Noakes by split decision