Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Texans defeated the Bills 23-19 on Thursday night. To get ready for the rest of the action, our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s four potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 11. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Will the Raiders spoil Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL start? Does Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson have fantasy upside after a big Week 11? How big will running back Bucky Irving’s return be for the Bucs? And what did Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold learn from last week’s loss to the Rams?
We dig into all that, starting with an exciting showdown in the early slate.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 12 winners
Can the Chiefs stop the Colts’ play-action attack?
Play-action is at the core of the Colts’ offense; they use it on 33% of dropbacks, second most in the NFL. And it might be a particularly potent lever in Week 12, because the Chiefs — while generally a solid defense that ranks 13th in EPA allowed per dropback — have struggled mightily against play-action. They rank dead last in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and have allowed a 62% success rate against play-action, second worst among all defenses.
Will the Raiders be able to disrupt Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders?
In general, the Raiders’ pass rush is not overly threatening. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby is a danger to any offense, but Las Vegas ranks 15th in pass rush win rate (38.0%), 26th in pressure rate (27.7%) and 26th in sack rate (5.2%). But against Sanders in his first NFL start, they might not have to be that great to make an impact.
Sanders’ 2024 numbers at Colorado in this realm are pretty wild: He was under pressure 39.2% of the time (17th highest out of 129 qualifiers in the FBS) and took sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (25th highest). But that all happened while being blitzed just 17.9% of the time (third lowest) and with a first pressure occurring after an average of 3.1 seconds (fourth lowest).
In other words, he was creating his own pressure. And against NFL defenses, he can’t do that. That will be tested in Las Vegas.
Will the Cowboys be able to throw deep on the Eagles?
Thirty-one percent of the Cowboys’ routes this season have been verticals — the highest rate in the league. It has been a key part of their successful passing attack, as the team is averaging 0.66 EPA when targeting vertical routes. (Filtering on downfield throws will often produce more extreme EPA results since usually a lot has gone right if a downfield target is occurring, but this is still a high number.)
Unfortunately for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, their strength might not be ideal against the Eagles. Philly allows a league-low EPA per play when opponents target a vertical route on them (0.04).
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (36.2% rostered)
Spears continues to work in a committee with Tony Pollard, but his growing role in the passing game is encouraging. He has logged at least three receptions and averaged 10.1 fantasy points in the past five games. That gives him a reliable floor, and he could see even more work this week because of Tennessee’s injuries at wide receiver. The Seahawks also allow the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (32.4% rostered)
Wilson is a strong Week 12 start with Marvin Harrison Jr. already ruled out because of an appendectomy. Wilson is coming off a career day of 15 receptions for 185 yards on a 31.6% target share against the 49ers, clearly operating as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver.
While he won’t see that kind of volume every week, Wilson should stay heavily involved against the Jaguars. The matchup also works in his favor, as Jacksonville has allowed the most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 6, which is where Wilson lines up.
1:03
Should fantasy managers start Michael Wilson in Week 12?
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down Michael Wilson’s fantasy production in Week 11 for the Cardinals.
AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks (13.3% rostered)
Barner saw a career-high 11 targets against the Rams in Week 11, finishing with 17.1 fantasy points. He has clearly emerged as Seattle’s No. 2 option behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The team also uses him on its version of the «tush push,» giving him rare goal-line upside for a tight end. Barner has scored at least 11 fantasy points in two of his past three games, and he’s in a great spot against the Titans.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (10.8% rostered)
Young hasn’t been a reliable starter this season, but he’s coming off a season-high 31.8 fantasy points against the Falcons and finally looks in sync with No. 1 receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense has been decimated by injuries and is giving up the fifth-most passing yards per game. San Francisco also allowed 21.8 fantasy points to the Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett in Week 11, even though Wilson and Greg Dortch were his only meaningful wide receiver options.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.6% rostered)
Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension opens the door for Iosivas to get more targets against the Patriots. He has had three games this season with more than four targets, and he has scored at least 13 fantasy points in two of them.
Iosivas also averages 13.5 yards per reception, so even limited volume can turn into meaningful fantasy production. The Patriots will be missing key defensive players, and their defense allows the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. With Tee Higgins drawing the bulk of defensive attention, Iosivas is positioned to see more favorable coverage.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
Joe Burrow wins his first game back from a turf toe injury
Burrow is questionable to play, so this is assuming he suits up. Yes, the Bengals’ defense has been the league’s worst all season. But I thought their film against the Steelers was the best outing they’d had all season. The energy in Cincinnati will be absurd if Burrow returns, and the Patriots’ defense is eminently more gettable through the air than on the ground. This should be a shootout, and one the Bengals can win.
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The Cardinals upset the Jaguars
Arizona’s past two games have been embarrassing: 44 and 41 points apiece surrendered to divisional opponents. But early first-quarter deficits have thrown their games off script, and I still believe in this Brissett-led offense against a Jaguars defense that needs turnovers to be successful. Arizona is 3-7, but that coaching staff is fighting for their jobs. I expect a desperate home performance.
The Browns win … by running the ball against the Raiders
Everyone is excited to see Sanders, but the Browns’ path to offensive victory relies on an under-center, physical running game. Las Vegas’ defense has holes everywhere (besides edge rusher Maxx Crosby), and Cleveland’s running game has improved with the emergence of rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Sanders’ best plays this week might be handoffs.
Running back Bucky Irving revolutionizes the Buccaneers’ offense against the Rams
We saw a taste of what backfield juice could add to the Buccaneers’ offense last week, when Sean Tucker went nuclear against the Bills with two touchdowns on 140 scrimmage yards. Tampa’s screen game hasn’t been nearly as potent in Irving’s absence (foot and shoulder injuries), and too few runs have been uncorked into explosive gains. Tucker’s success, along with Irving’s return, could bring a much-needed easy button back to Tampa Bay’s offense — at a time in which it desperately needs a jolt.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus
The Eagles need to get their pass game off the ground, and they have a blueprint to study with the Dallas defense. In the Week 1 matchup between both teams, Eberflus’ unit played zone coverage on a whopping 87.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks. And the Cowboys played with zone discipline, too, getting to depth and squeezing throwing windows.
However, the Eagles should have answers for Hurts this week. They can create open throwing voids for the quarterback, while also putting him in position to cut it loose on middle-of-the-field concepts.
1:19
Orlovsky: What’s going on with Jalen Hurts is ‘so disrespectful’
Dan Orlovsky explains why the Eagles’ reported locker room frustration directed toward Jalen Hurts is «disrespectful.»
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 12
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Indy is built to stress every one of the Chiefs’ weaknesses. The Colts love to run the ball, hit explosive plays through play-action and dictate early-down efficiency in a way that should keep this inside a field goal. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still makes the Chiefs a tough beat, but this version of the team hasn’t created wide margins.
With the Colts’ EPA profile, their improved man coverage with cornerback Sauce Gardner and their ability to score on sustained drives, +3.5 is the right side.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What did the Seahawks learn from Sam Darnold’s four-interception performance against the Rams?
Darnold pointed to two issues: He needed to recognize the Rams’ shell coverage better, and he needed to move on in his progressions as opposed to locking onto one or two targets. On his second interception, for instance, cornerback Cobie Durant jumped Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s out route because Darnold’s eyes never left his No. 1 receiver. Darnold’s fourth interception was on an extended play. As coach Mike Macdonald pointed out, those off-platform plays have yielded some of his best moments.
«You don’t want to take the playmaker out of him,» Macdonald said, «but you also understand when we need to be able to get to the next play versus putting the ball in jeopardy down the field.» — Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter
Game picks from our NFL experts »
• Betting notes » | More NFL coverage »
What should we expect to see from Shedeur Sanders this week with time to work with the first team?
One of the main advantages of a week of practice reps is working through a game plan tailored to maximize Sanders’ strengths and minimize his weaknesses. That means using concepts that highlight his downfield accuracy but also finding answers to the blitzes that he struggled with against the Ravens. With Maxx Crosby rushing, expect the Browns to move the pocket a bit and allow Sanders to get the ball out of his hands in rhythm. — Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter
What improvements are the Saints expecting to see from Tyler Shough after the bye week?
Shough began establishing chemistry with both Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson in the Panthers game prior to the bye week, and he was able to open up the downfield passing game and make plays with his feet. Shough said he’s becoming more comfortable as a leader with each week. The expectation is that Shough will continue to take steps forward in his first home start, especially now that he has the confidence coming off the 17-7 win against the Panthers. — Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter
What will be the biggest difference in the Falcons’ game plan with Kirk Cousins?
Expect more throws to running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and more targets for tight end Kyle Pitts Sr., especially with wide receiver Drake London out. Michael Penix Jr. likes to air things out, especially outside the numbers. Cousins is more likely to attack the middle of the field with intermediate routes. The Falcons probably will play less pistol. Atlanta has aligned from the pistol on a league-high 48.8% of snaps, more than double that of any other team this season. — Marc Raimondi, Falcons reporter
