Christmas Day is usually a time for family and basketball, but the NFL is presenting a new challenge for the NBA this holiday season.
After a doubleheader of NFL games on Christmas last year, the league added one more matchup at night to kick off Week 17. All three NFL matchups are between divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the NBA is set to feature its regular slate of five games (all on ABC/ESPN) for the 18th straight year.
This eight-game Christmas spread can be a lot to take in, so we put together an all-encompassing guide for Thursday. Our reporters and analysts from both sports broke down every matchup, including the biggest storylines, key stats, bold predictions, fantasy X factors and betting nuggets. Plus, we used ESPN’s Football and Basketball Power Index to go inside the numbers with game projections. For the NFL games, we also included ramifications for the playoffs, which begin in just two weeks.
Let’s get to all eight contests, starting and ending on the hardwood. (Games are listed in chronological order by start time.)
Jump to an NBA matchup:
CLE-NYK | SA-OKC | DAL-GS
HOU-LAL | MIN-DEN
Jump to an NFL matchup:
DAL-WSH | DET-MIN | DEN-KC
Noon ET | ESPN/ABC | NYK -5.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The league probably thought this would be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals when the schedule came out, but the Cavaliers have sputtered and are now without Evan Mobley due to a calf strain. The Knicks — especially since coach Mike Brown has gone back to last season’s starting five — represent everything the Cavs want to be: tough.
And the Knicks are more than finding their stride on offense, being second in efficiency. Reigning Player of the Week Jalen Brunson has been on a tear, averaging 32.3 points and 6.8 assists in his past eight games entering Tuesday night on 51/41/83 splits — a sharp contrast to the season Darius Garland is having, dealing with turf toe that was supposed to be surgically repaired during the offseason.
The Cavaliers can’t get off the mat until Garland finds himself; otherwise, it’ll be Donovan Mitchell standing alone against the Knicks. — Vincent Goodwill
Stat to know: A month ago, the Cavaliers and Knicks were next to each other in the standings, with 11-6 and 9-6 records, respectively. But Cleveland has lost as many games since Nov. 24 (eight) as New York has all season, as the NBA Cup champions are 12-3 during the Cavaliers’ recent extended swoon. — Zach Kram
Bold prediction: Mitchell, playing on Christmas Day for the first time since 2021, will activate the same mode that averages 29.6 PPG in each of the past two postseasons and will top 35 points for the ninth time this season. — Kevin Pelton
Fantasy nugget: The Cavaliers look dramatically different this season. After ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating a year ago, they are 10th offensively and 16th defensively. They are also shooting just 34.6% from 3, down from 38.3%. Garland’s shooting struggles and Mobley’s injury absence have only added to the decline. Mitchell has been the exception — he is averaging career highs in points per game (30.7), 3-pointers made (4.1) and usage rate (32.3). — Eric Moody
Kram’s pick: Knicks 123, Cavaliers 111
Pelton’s pick: Knicks 118, Cavaliers 116
BPI prediction: NYK, 61.1%
Matchup must-reads: Five wild-card players who could impact the wide-open East race … Knicks coach Mike Brown counts Bernie Bickerstaff as his biggest mentor
1 p.m. ET | Netflix | DAL -7 (50.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: Out of the playoffs, the Cowboys’ motivation comes down to pride, a non-losing record and one more thing as they end the season against the Commanders and Giants. «I’m fueled by the fact that we get to play an NFC East opponent this week and then next week,» coach Brian Schottenheimer said. «We want to win. And to sustain some success and we have a chance to potentially go 5-1 in the division. I mean this is the NFC East.» Quarterback Dak Prescott is a combined 26-4 versus both teams in his career. — Todd Archer
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: There’s not much to salvage from this wreckage of a season, and the Commanders can’t even play spoiler. But they do need to stop the bleeding versus Dallas. The Cowboys have won seven of the past nine games in this rivalry, including the past two at Northwest Stadium. One thing that would help is limiting turnovers. Washington is minus-12 in turnover margin and was minus-2 in a 44-22 loss to Dallas in Week 6. And in their past nine games versus the Cowboys, the Commanders are minus-13 in turnover differential. — John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders have allowed an average of 33.6 points per game in 14 matchups against Prescott as the starting QB. That’s the most points allowed by any team versus another with an active quarterback. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson will record at least seven receptions for the first time since Oct. 19, the last time these two teams played. Other than that specific bit of history, this is mostly a gut feeling. Ferguson was such a huge part of the offense early in the season but has been quieter since. — Seth Walder
What’s at stake: The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 after the Eagles defeated the Commanders. Washington was already eliminated from the postseason race and is projected to have the No. 7 draft pick per FPI. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Prescott, running back Javonte Williams and wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens all belong in lineups against a Commanders defense that has been eviscerated all season. Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the sixth most to running backs and the ninth most to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-10 ATS, tied for the worst record in the NFL. They are 3-9 ATS as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Cowboys 44, Commanders 24
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 30, Commanders 13
FPI prediction: DAL, 56.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: What did Cowboys get right in Schottenheimer’s first season?
2:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | OKC -10.5 (233.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: After the Spurs snapped the Thunder’s 16-game winning streak in the NBA Cup semifinals, one thing is clear: We’re at the beginning of what should be a heated rivalry for years to come between these teams.
Victor Wembanyama has come off the bench in five consecutive games since his return from a 12-game absence due to a left calf strain. There’s a good chance the trend continues considering he hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in the four games he has been back.
In addition to the budding team rivalry, pay close attention to the individual one-on-one battle between Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Wembanyama maintains a sense of humility when asked about the rivalry between the Spurs and the Thunder, but it appears something big is brewing between these young, hungry teams, with Wembanyama and Holmgren standing at the forefront. — Michael C. Wright
Stat to know: As noted, when Wembanyama came off the bench to key the Spurs’ upset win in the NBA Cup, it was just his fifth career matchup against Holmgren and the first since October 2024. Wembanyama has averaged 24.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 3.3 BPG to Holmgren’s 18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 1.5 BPG, per Stathead.com. — Pelton
0:45
Wemby believes he’s the best player in the NBA
Victor Wembanyama says Nikola Jokic is the best offensive player in the NBA, but Wemby believes he’s the best overall player in the league.
Bold prediction: Wembanyama will score 40 points. No opposing player has reached 40-plus points in a game against the Thunder yet this season — the most in regulation is just 32 — but Wembanyama loves a big stage. He had 42 points and 18 rebounds in his Christmas debut last season against the Knicks. — Kram
Fantasy nugget: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has carried fantasy teams all season. He is averaging 53.1 fantasy points per game, trailing Wembanyama, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. He already has 23 games with 30-plus points this season, a pace matched only by Michael Jordan (1986-87) since the merger. — Moody
Kram’s pick: Thunder 110, Spurs 104
Pelton’s pick: Thunder 120, Spurs 108
BPI prediction: OKC, 74.1%
Matchup must-reads: The budding Spurs-Thunder rivalry that could shape the West … A five-step guide on how to beat the Thunder
4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | DET -6 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Coach Dan Campbell’s message to the team this week was simple: «Move forward.» Despite suffering back-to-back losses for the first time since 2022, Campbell is pushing the team to be ready «emotionally, psychologically, physically» to finish the 2025 season strong. «I’d love to win one of these holiday games,» said edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. «The Thanksgiving game still pisses me off. So, I’m like, just give me Christmas. That’s kind of the mentality.» — Eric Woodyard
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings will make an effort to ensure that wide receiver Justin Jefferson eclipses 1,000 receiving yards for the season, a sentence that might seem preposterous but is in fact very real. The only other season that Jefferson hasn’t been well over 1,000 yards by Week 17 was 2023, when he missed seven games because of a torn hamstring. But the Vikings’ struggles at quarterback, and Jefferson’s own surprising lapses, have left him at 917 yards in 15 games. That leaves him 83 yards short, or an average of 41.5 yards per game. It’s very doable, but it’s worth noting that Jefferson has had fewer than 41 yards in four of his past seven games. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Minnesota receivers dropped three passes in the first half of last week’s win over the Giants, which was their most in a first half since Week 14 of 2017. The Vikings are tied with the Chiefs and Broncos for the second-most drops (26). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Lions cornerback D.J. Reed will allow a touchdown to Jefferson. Since Reed returned from his hamstring injury in Week 12, he has allowed a very rough 1.9 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Vikings have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and the Lions could join them with a loss Thursday or a Packers win Saturday. Detroit has a 7% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
1:32
Why Foxworth isn’t ready to close the window on the Lions
Domonique Foxworth and Dan Orlovsky break down what the Lions’ disappointing season means for their Super Bowl chances moving forward.
Fantasy nugget: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been held to just 40 total rushing yards over the past two games, but he has still produced as a receiver with 14 catches, 86 receiving yards and a touchdown over that span. Gibbs struggled against Minnesota in Week 9, finishing with just 5.8 fantasy points. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their past three games. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 29, Vikings 18
Moody’s pick: Lions 27, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: DET, 68.4% (by an average of 7.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ McCarthy out with hairline fracture in hand … NFL Week 16: What went wrong for Lions, Bucs, Ravens, Colts?
5 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | GS -7.5 (226.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Klay Thompson reunion will get plenty of attention. After 13 years and nine Christmas games with the Warriors, he is making his third return trip to San Francisco to face his former team. Thompson has been a contributor to a recent Mavericks surge, averaging 11.8 points in 21 minutes off the bench this month.
Cooper Flagg has been the headliner for the Mavericks, though. The rookie No. 1 pick will get a showcase for his debut Christmas game on a floor full of legends just as he’s hitting his stride. Flagg has scoring nights of 33, 35 and 42 points over the past month.
On the Warriors’ side, it’s about urgency. They have fringe contention aspirations this season but are toiling in mediocrity. This matchup is part of a favorable portion of the schedule — they need to accumulate wins and make a move in the standings before it’s too late. — Anthony Slater
Stat to know: Stephen Curry has the most 3-pointers for a single team in NBA history, and Reggie Miller ranks second. But it’s Thompson who ranks third, with his 2,481 3s in 11 seasons as a Warrior. He made 16 3s on 30 attempts in three games as a visitor at the Chase Center last season. — Kram
Bold prediction: The Warriors will make at least 18 3-pointers. They’ve done so four times in the five games they’ve played with two days of rest, going 4-1 in those games. Overall, the Warriors are 7-2 when they knock down at least 18 triples in a game. — Pelton
Injuries: Mavericks | Warriors
Fantasy nugget: Anthony Davis has been superb in December, averaging 49.1 fantasy points per game. He put on a master class against the Pelicans on Monday night with 35 points and 17 rebounds. It was his 45th career game with at least 35 points and 15 rebounds, the most in the league since he entered in 2012-13. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are tied for second with 31 such games. — Moody
Kram’s pick: Mavericks 113, Warriors 108
Pelton’s pick: Warriors 118, Mavericks 112
BPI prediction: GS, 72%
Matchup must-reads: The regrets and reflections in Thompson’s Warriors exit … Two Mavs make our All-Value Team … Green leaves Warriors’ bench after argument with Kerr
8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | HOU -4.5 (228.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Rockets have slipped in the standings with four losses in their past six games coming into Christmas week, and the Lakers have their own problems at the moment: Los Angeles was down four starters in its loss to the Clippers over the weekend. So, the first matchup between these two teams might not feature either at their best.
With Houston figuring to be a factor in the West playoff picture, however, it will be an important test for the Lakers, no matter who is available to play.
In the Lakers’ past two high-leverage games against the West’s best, they came out flat. The defending champion Thunder trounced them 121-92 on Nov. 12. And hosting the Spurs in the NBA Cup quarterfinals Dec. 10 with a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at $500,000 per player on the line, the Spurs controlled the action in a 132-119 road win, despite Wembanyama being out. — Dave McMenamin
Stat to know: LeBron James‘ double-figure scoring streak ended earlier this month, but his streak of scoring at least 16 points in all 19 of his historic Christmas Day appearances lives on. The next-most games played on Christmas while scoring at least 16 points in all of them: Kevin Durant, who is tied with Oscar Robertson for 12 each. James Harden (10) is the only other player with a double-digit streak, which he won’t have the opportunity to extend this season. — Pelton
Bold prediction: James and Durant will both score more than 30 points. The two superstars have reached 30 against each other 15 times across their Hall of Fame careers, and with James handling a greater offensive load due to injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, they’ll do so for a 16th time on Christmas. — Kram
Fantasy nugget: Durant continues to defy time, extending his prime into his late 30s with elite shotmaking and a refined, technical game that consistently translates to fantasy production. Earlier this month, he became the third-fastest player to reach 30,000 points, 5,000 rebounds and 5,000 assists, trailing only James and Michael Jordan. Durant has also elevated his play against James-led teams, averaging 28.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 4.7 APG versus James since the 2018-19 season. — Moody
Kram’s pick: Rockets 125, Lakers 115
Pelton’s pick: Lakers 118, Rockets 114
BPI prediction: HOU, 61.5%
Matchup must-reads: LeBron vs. Father Time: How James has changed, by the numbers … Durant’s chase for a third ring comes down to two young stars … Redick blunt about Lakers’ effort, defense after blowout
8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | DEN -13.5 (36.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Linebacker Alex Singleton might have summarized the Broncos’ to-do list the most succinctly: «We’ve got two games to go and be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.» They have to win both games to guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed and the home playoff games that come with it. And a quick bounce-back from their powerful defense is needed. They’ve never faced Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun, but December games in Arrowhead have long been an issue for the Broncos. Since 1990, Denver is 3-12 in such games. — Jeff Legwold
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Oladokun, the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback who was signed from Kansas City’s practice squad last week, is expected to make his first NFL start against the Broncos. He hopes to make the most of this moment. «We have a lot of young guys playing, but it’s a great experience,» said Oladokun, 28. «It’s going to be real valuable for us. It’s Christmas Day. The possibility of me making my first start on Christmas Day is pretty special. I’ll have family in town. I’m looking forward to it.» — Nate Taylor
Stat to know: The Chiefs have failed to score in the first half six times, including during last week’s blowout loss to the Titans. That’s been their most in a single season since 2012 (11 games). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will rebound after last week’s loss to the Jaguars and finish with higher than a 75 QBR. Nix has a 59 QBR, but that number jumps to 82 when facing the blitz. Kansas City blitzes 35% of the time, third most in the NFL. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Chargers loss Saturday. Denver also has a shot at the No. 1 seed if it wins and the Chargers, Patriots, Bills and Jaguars all lose in Week 17. See Playoff Machine. — ESPN Research
0:55
John Elway impressed by Bo Nix’s maturity level
John Elway joins Rich Eisen and breaks down how Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s maturity has been impressive.
Fantasy nugget: Running back RJ Harvey and the Broncos’ rushing attack should shine against a Kansas City defense that just surrendered 31.7 fantasy points to Titans running backs Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Harvey gets the benefit of running behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: That 36.5 number is the lowest over/under in a Chiefs home game since 2008 and tied for their lowest total in any game in the past decade. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
Moody’s pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 55.6% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: How a random drug test helped potentially save Alex Singleton’s life … Chiefs agree to deal to play in dome in state of Kansas … Chiefs QB Minshew avoids ACL tear
10:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | DEN -4.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: Was the Timberwolves’ comeback over the Thunder a statement win? Minnesota had struggled all season against quality competition until Anthony Edwards pulled off a rare clutch trifecta — hitting a go-ahead 3, blocking a shot and making a steal in the final minute, with the two defensive plays coming against reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Wolves are 3-8 against teams that are .500 or better, but they also got off to a sluggish start last season before gelling in time to make their second straight run to the Western Conference finals.
Minnesota’s 2024 conference finals appearance came at the expense of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, as the Wolves pulled off a massive comeback in Denver to win Game 7 of the second round.
The mile-high atmosphere typically helps Denver have one of the league’s best home-court advantages, but the Nuggets have been surprisingly bad at Ball Arena recently, losing five of their past seven home games. — Tim MacMahon
Stat to know: Dating back to the second round of the 2024 postseason, the Timberwolves had won six consecutive games against Denver, including Game 7 of that playoff series and a double-overtime thriller last April. But the Nuggets broke that streak this season, with wins against Minnesota in October and November. — Kram
Bold prediction: Edwards will lead all players across all games in scoring on Christmas Day. Denver is without its two best defensive options against him: Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, both sidelined by injury. And though the Nuggets have other choices, with Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson all likely to spend time defending Edwards, they don’t have as much experience containing him one-on-one. — Pelton
Injuries: Timberwolves | Nuggets
Fantasy nugget: Edwards is averaging a career-high 28.3 PPG, fueled by an expansion in his offensive game. He has become far more effective operating out of the post, consistently punishing smaller defenders and turning mismatches into easy offense. That added dimension has elevated him into the league’s top tier of scorers. — Moody
Kram’s pick: Nuggets 120, Timberwolves 112
Pelton’s pick: Timberwolves 116, Nuggets 111
BPI prediction: DEN, 59.9%
Matchup must-reads: In search of the real Jokic … Jokic breaks Kareem’s record for career assists by center
