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Matt Bowen
Yes, there are only two open playoff spots entering Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season. But there is still a lot to be decided on Saturday and Sunday. Beyond the four teams trying to nab those two spots — via the NFC South and AFC North — there are six others are trying to clinch conference 1-seeds and/or division titles. Home-field advantage is huge in the postseason.
Not all of those teams control their own destiny, but all 10 could use a Week 18 win to at least keep their clinching hopes alive. So we’re helping them get there by mapping out one big game-plan key to victory for each of the 10 teams with something to play for this weekend.
We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Additionally, clinching scenarios and chances to do so from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) are detailed below for each team. Teams are ordered chronologically by Week 18 game time, which means we’re beginning with Saturday’s matchup between the Panthers and Buccaneers.
Jump to a team:
BAL | CAR | DEN | HOU | JAX
NE | PIT | SF | SEA | TB
Game: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
FPI chances to win the NFC South/make playoffs: 72.4%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie OR Falcons win
Key to victory: Isolate the X receiver when facing pressure.
In the Week 16 game against Tampa Bay, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young was blitzed (five or more rushers) on 41.7% of his dropbacks. But that’s expected when you play against a Todd Bowles defense, and offensive coordinators have to prep for late movement from the defense in both zone and man pressure concepts.
Young completed seven of his 12 pass attempts against the blitz, and Carolina found some matchups on isolation throws to wideouts Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker when they aligned at the X receiver spot (both boundary and field alignments). This allowed the Panthers to take the one-on-ones against Bucs corners Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison, as Young completed two throws of 20-plus yards — with one going for a McMillan touchdown.
Game: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
FPI chances to win the NFC South/make playoffs: 27.6%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Falcons win
Key to victory: Run more inside zone with RB Bucky Irving.
In their first meeting, Irving saw steady volume, carrying the ball 19 times. He hasn’t run with high efficiency since returning from foot and shoulder injuries in Week 13, and he finished with only 71 yards on the day (3.7 per carry). But if we look closer and track the run schemes, Irving did produce a rush of over 10 yards on a gap concept, and he found daylight on inside zone bending the ball back to the middle of the field. Irving averaged 5.3 yards per carry on inside zone attempts against Carolina, with the Tampa Bay offensive line creating more movement off combos.
Sure, it’s a smaller sample size, but with the lack of rhythm we are seeing right now from Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ passing game, Tampa Bay has to find ways to run the ball in this one.
Game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
FPI chances to win the NFC West/NFC 1-seed: 50.3%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Find coverage answers for Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Coaches can’t go into a game versus Seattle without a dedicated coverage plan for Smith-Njigba, who ranks second in the league this season with 106.8 receiving yards per game. And if we go back to the Week 1 49ers-Seahawks matchup, Smith-Njigba caught nine of 13 targets for 124 yards, doing most of his work against zone coverage.
Robert Saleh’s defense played only 10 snaps of single-high man-free in that matchup. I’d like to see more man coverage reps from San Francisco on Saturday night, with cornerback Deommodore Lenoir matching/traveling with Smith-Njigba. Lenoir has the inside/outside coverage ability to play in the slot, too. And when Saleh does call his zone schemes, the 49ers can «lock» Smith-Njigba when he plays as the backside X or use a cloud corner to disrupt the release/timing off the route. Make someone else beat you.
Game: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
FPI chances to win the NFC West/NFC 1-seed: 49.7%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie
Key to victory: Close the middle of the field.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy has completed over 75% of his passes on throws inside the numbers this season, including 85.7% in the Week 1 game in Seattle. The ball is often going to the middle of the field in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, with a lot of high-to-low reads for the quarterback, rhythm throws and play-action concepts. That can create voids in coverage.
However, Seattle has the personnel to go man-heavy, and it did play a bunch of Cover 1 — with a linebacker in the underneath hole — in that Week 1 game. That helps on the in-breakers and crossers. Plus, I think the Seahawks can spin late from split-field zone alignment, using their safeties to cut or rob middle-of-the-field windows. That’s critical against Shanahan’s system.
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Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to win the AFC South: 15.9%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Jaguars loss
Key to victory: Increase the blitz rate against Colts QB Riley Leonard.
The Texans’ 22.9% blitz rate ranks 23rd in the league this season. However, if we go back to the Week 13 game versus the Colts, with Daniel Jones under center, that rate jumped to 39.3%. Jones struggled, completing just two of 11 passes against five or more rushers. And with Leonard making the start this week, I expect Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to heat up the rookie quarterback, using multiple pressure schemes.
Of course, Colts coach Shane Steichen can build in quicks, screens, etc. to help Leonard manage pressure. But with Ryans’ ability to stem late to his blitz fronts/coverages, while bringing both second- and third-level pressure, the Texans can speed up the internal clock of Leonard and force the young quarterback to make poor decisions with the ball.
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to win the AFC South: 84.1%
FPI chances to win the AFC 1-seed: 4.5%
Clinching scenario for AFC South: Win/tie OR Texans loss/tie
Clinching scenario for AFC 1-seed: Win AND Broncos loss AND Patriots loss
Key to victory: Target WR Jakobi Meyers in 3×1 sets.
This is more of a nuanced look at this matchup, but based on the Week 13 tape against the Titans, I would use Meyers’ route and alignment versatility in 3×1 sets. In that first meeting against Tennessee, Meyers caught all five of his targets for 83 yards and a touchdown out of 3×1 alignments, and Jaguars coach Liam Coen played him at both Z and X receiver. This allowed Coen to scheme for Meyers at multiple levels of the field on three-man concepts to the front side of the formation, while also setting him up as a backside/isolation target for quarterback Trevor Lawrence on deep in-breakers. Meyers is more than willing to work the dirty areas of the field between the hashes, and he is a physical route runner with coverage awareness.
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Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI chances to win the AFC 1-seed: 70.4%
Clinching scenario: Win OR Patriots/Jaguars losses
Key to victory: Create explosive plays against split-safety coverage.
The Chargers play split-safety coverage at a league-high rate of 57.1%, and this unit is the NFL’s most zone-heavy defense (70.2% of opponent dropbacks). And over the past four weeks — in matchups versus the Texans, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles — the Chargers have given up 12 receptions of 20 or more yards.
On Sunday, Broncos coach Sean Payton can scheme up throws for quarterback Bo Nix. Denver can lift the top of the defense to create deep in-breaking voids or remove the safeties to isolate matchups on the corners with boundary receivers. The goal is to put Nix in a position to target the third level of the field. (And the Chargers could opt to sit some players on defense this week, improving the outlook for the Broncos.)
Game: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI chances to win the AFC 1-seed: 25.1%
Clinching scenario: Win AND Broncos loss
Key to victory: Work the middle of the field.
Quarterback Drake Maye has completed 75.6% of his throws between the numbers this season, third best in the league. If we watch the tape on Maye here, his ability to identify post-snap coverage and then throw with precise ball location allows the Patriots to lean on in-breaking concepts (crossers, smash concepts, dig routes, benders, more). This also creates catch-and-run targets for the New England playmakers.
How does this play into the matchup with Miami? This season, the Dolphins are giving up an average of 8.0 yards per attempt on throws inside the numbers, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Look for Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels to have answers on Sunday versus both single-high man and zone, targeting the middle of the field underneath and at the intermediate level.
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Game: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to win the AFC North/make playoffs: 57.8%
Clinching scenario: Win
Key to victory: Limit perimeter targets in man coverage.
In the Steelers’ Week 14 win over the Ravens, Pittsburgh wideout DK Metcalf caught five passes for 131 yards on throws outside the numbers. But with Metcalf suspended, the Ravens can really limit Aaron Rodgers’ perimeter targets by playing more man coverage. Let’s put cornerback Marlon Humphrey in a press alignment against Marquez Valdes-Scantling, while Nate Wiggins can check Scotty Miller or Adam Thielen. The Ravens will take those matchups.
Plus, it allows Baltimore to squeeze the outside receivers on the quicks and unders that Rodgers wants to throw. The Ravens will challenge the catch point. They played man coverage on 48.6% of Rodgers’ dropbacks in Week 14, and I’d expect that number to increase on Sunday night.
Game: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI chances to win the AFC North/make playoffs: 42.2%
Clinching scenario: Win/tie
Key to victory: Get RB Kenneth Gainwell loose in the passing game.
Gainwell caught six of seven targets in the first meeting with the Ravens, but he produced only 27 receiving yards. It was all checkdowns, swings and jet looks. While Gainwell will continue to operate as an underneath outlet for Rodgers on Sunday, let’s see if Steelers coordinator Arthur Smith can expand the running back’s role as a receiver. Gainwell has the traits to flex from the backfield as a vertical target, and he can shake coverage underneath on choice/option routes.
With the pass-game limitations created by the absence of Metcalf, Gainwell can create some juice as a matchup piece for the Steelers.
