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Tim Bontemps
NBA All-Star voting will close at 11:59 p.m. ET Wednesday, with the five starters from each conference announced on Monday and reserves selected by the league’s coaches on Feb. 1.
As fans submit their last-minute ballots, which players should get in? Which contenders are on the bubble? Which stars could miss the cut? (And which grouping should include LeBron James?)
The goal, as will be the case in next month’s tweaked All-Star Game structure, will be to roster 16 American and eight international players for the round-robin-style U.S. vs. World format. (If either number falls short, we will add to the player pool, just as NBA commissioner Adam Silver would do for the actual results.)
Let’s map out the starters and reserves for the Eastern and Western Conferences, which are filled with elite All-Star locks, young first-time picks and plenty of agonizing decisions.
Jump to a section:
East: Starters | Reserve locks | Bubble
West: Starters | Reserve locks | Bubble
Why our roster gets a bonus 25th player
Eastern Conference
Starters
Four of these choices are simple, especially with the NBA’s new rules to allow a positionless starting five. Antetokounmpo is in danger of falling short of the 65-game rule, which would knock him off the All-NBA first team and out of the top five in the MVP race. But he has been by far the best player in the East this season and will coast into his 10th consecutive All-Star Game. Antetokounmpo will become the 45th player in league history with double-digit NBA All-Star selections.
Cunningham has followed up on last season’s All-Star and All-NBA debuts with another leap, moving into the MVP conversation as the leader of the conference-best Pistons. Brunson has once again been a steady force for New York and should easily make his fourth straight All-Star team. Maxey, who joins Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the league’s 30 point-per-game scorers, has driven the 76ers’ return to playoff positioning after last season’s injury-filled disaster.
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell, behind a career-high 29.5 points per game, is having arguably his best individual season. That offensive uptick has been needed to keep Cleveland from falling even further from the 7-seed it occupies now, as the Cavaliers have had a rotating cast of characters sidelined with injuries. Starter Max Strus, for example, has yet to make his season debut due to a fractured left foot.
Brown has been the face of Boston’s surprising first half, setting career-highs in points (29.5) and assists (5.0) per game while maintaining strong efficiency numbers despite taking on a far heavier workload than in the past due to Jayson Tatum’s absence with a torn Achilles.
Thanks to the Celtics’ success, a near-coin-flip battle for the East’s fifth starter leans in Brown’s direction.
Reserve locks
After Mitchell, Johnson was the easiest inclusion among East reserves. A leading contender for the NBA’s Most Improved Player, the 6-foot-8 forward was taking major strides last season before injuries cut it short. Johnson has become a triple-double manufacturer this season (tied for second in the league with seven, including four straight last month) and is averaging career highs in points and shooting percentages on increased usage.
Barnes has continued to develop his strong two-way game for Toronto, which has settled in as a contender for home-court advantage in the playoffs after a rough start to the season.
And while Duren might not have quite the same counting stats as some of the players behind him on this list, his two-man chemistry with Cunningham and improvement as a defender have been massive in Detroit’s rapid rise. The franchise deserves a second All-Star this season.
Bubble watch
This is where the fun begins.
If the Knicks get a second player, it will be Towns. (No disrespect to Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, who are having great seasons for the East’s 2-seed.) But while Towns is still putting up impressive averages of 21.2 points, 11.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists, those numbers bely the worst shooting season of his career during an inconsistent second campaign in New York.
Bane has become a staple on «Best players never to be an All-Star» teams, but with early-season injuries to teammates Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the Magic’s top offseason pickup is the only realistic choice. Like Towns, Bane has seen a dip in performance compared to his numbers in prior seasons in Memphis, although he has often been Orlando’s go-to option in the clutch.
Cavaliers at 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Nuggets at Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET
Friday, Jan. 16
Cavaliers at 76ers, 7 p.m. ET
Timberwolves at Rockets, 9:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday, Jan. 21
Cavaliers at Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Thunder at Bucks, 9:30 p.m. ET
Numbers alone give Siakam the strongest case among this list, but the Pacers’ bottom placement in the standings can’t be ignored. The same can be said for Porter, who is having his best season but as the No. 1 option on a Nets team playing for lottery odds.
Powell has followed up the best season of his career with the LA Clippers with an even better start in his debut season for Miami, keeping the Heat’s offense rolling despite All-Star Tyler Herro playing just nine games due to various injuries.
In this ballot, Powell gets the first of the three spots, thanks to Miami’s heavy reliance on him, especially due to Herro’s injury issues. And, despite this season falling short of his past standards, Towns makes it in.
That leaves Bane, Siakam and Porter for the final spot. Siakam becomes the clear choice. When he leaves the court, the Pacers are almost 10 points per 100 possessions worse — more than 12 points worse offensively — which is enough to secure his fourth All-Star selection.
Western Conference
Starters
Like in the East, four West starter spots are automatic. Even with the Thunder’s recent «rough» stretch, Gilgeous-Alexander is either first or second on every MVP ballot and remains an easy choice to start. It will be a similar conversation for Jokic, who could return from his knee injury early next month to continue putting up otherworldly numbers.
The Lakers finally lost their first clutch game on Friday against Milwaukee, but Doncic is leading the league in scoring and remains a singular offensive hub in Los Angeles. And Wembanyama has taken another leap in his third season, powering the Spurs to the NBA Cup title game, to three wins over the defending champion Thunder and to the West’s second seed.
That leaves Edwards or Stephen Curry for the final spot, a question with no wrong answer. Ultimately, Edwards gets the edge due to a bit more consistency over Curry and the status as the better two-way force as compared with the Golden State Warriors legend.
Reserve locks
Let’s start with Holmgren, whose inclusion might come as a surprise. But the Thunder big man is an easy runner-up to Wembanyama in the Defensive Player of the Year race and has been an incredibly efficient scorer.
Murray should finally graduate from his captaincy of the «Best players never to be an All-Star» team, as his normally slow start has been replaced by career-high averages in points (25.6), assists (7.5) and 3-point rate (44.8%) through the first few months of the season. His importance to the Nuggets has never been greater as the franchise deals with injuries up and down the rotation, including Jokic’s recent left knee issue.
Then comes the Rockets’ tremendous scoring duo of Sengun and Durant. At 37, Durant is flirting with yet another 50-40-90 season and has been everything Houston dreamed of when it acquired the future Hall of Famer. But the Rockets’ best shot creator has been Sengun, as the 23-year-old big man has taken another leap as the team’s offensive hub.
Bubble watch
This list features incredibly tough decisions.
How can an All-Star Game take place without LeBron, who has been tapped to start in each of the past 21 seasons? After looking all of 41 years old earlier this season, James’ numbers have skyrocketed behind the combination of improved conditioning and more time on the ball because of an injury to Reaves.
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Speaking of Reaves, it’s been a breakout season for the 27-year-old guard, who is going to get paid this summer, either by the Lakers or another team. But Reaves has played only 23 games, and the West has featured plenty of worthy contenders.
One of those players is among the best stories in the league. Avdija has burst into stardom for Portland as the clear favorite for Most Improved Player honors, all while taking on a gigantic playmaking and scoring role. (His 26.1 PPG are nearly 10 more than last season.)
From a team standpoint, the league’s best story could be the Suns, who are now firmly in a top-six spot in the West — far better than anyone reasonably expected before this season. Booker is their clear All-Star choice, though his efficiency has dipped enough to put him in this group of bubble candidates.
Off the court, Leonard has been one of the defining players of the season as the NBA awaits results of the investigation into possible salary cap circumvention by the Clippers. Hanging over all of that? The All-Star Game taking place outside Los Angeles at Intuit Dome.
From a pure production standpoint, Leonard is having a fabulous season, including a career high in points per game that is now up to 27.8 after a scorching hot month of play that has coincided with the Clippers’ 10-2 stretch since Dec. 20 as the franchise looks to turn around its season.
Who makes the cut? With the best numbers in the group, Avdija gets the first spot. His growth coupled with Portland’s push for a top-eight seed gives him the nod.
The two Lakers miss out. If Reaves didn’t get hurt, he likely would’ve made his first All-Star team. And it does feel bizarre leaving James off the team. He has played much better recently, but his production — in only 21 games — just doesn’t stack up against Booker’s or Leonard’s.
And between the two of them, we’ll give the nod to Booker for the final spot. There’s a very good case for Leonard over Booker. But since Booker is the undisputed leader of this Suns team and Phoenix has overachieved to the point it has, it’s enough to nudge this in his favor.
The 24 players (plus one!)
American selections (15): Cunningham, Brunson, Maxey, Brown, Mitchell, Johnson, Barnes, Duren, Towns, Powell, Holmgren, Edwards, Curry, Durant, Booker
International selections (9): Antetokounmpo, Siakam, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama, Doncic, Jokic, Murray, Sengun, Avdija
It should be noted that both Towns, who has played internationally for the Dominican Republic, and Powell, who has committed to the Jamaican national team, could potentially fit in either group. In this scenario, we need to add one more American.
In what would make for an awkward situation, given the Aspiration situation hanging over the player, franchise and All-Star Weekend itself — plus choosing someone over LeBron — Leonard’s play throughout the season’s first half should secure him the final spot.
