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André Snellings
Few players have seen their stock rise more this season than Jalen Johnson. Fresh off his 24th birthday, Atlanta’s fifth-year forward is delivering career-best production on both ends of the court. He’s on pace to shatter his career highs in scoring and assists, and has an excellent chance to earn his first All-Star nod this season.
It’s worth noting, too, that the Hawks’ recent trade of long-time franchise player Trae Young for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert increases Johnson’s ceiling even higher.
All this begs some questions. Just how high is Johnson’s potential for the remainder of the season? What is his current outlook in fantasy basketball? And are there any futures bets involving Johnson that have value?
Let’s explore.
Johnson’s projected value after the Young trade
In the nine games he played with Young this season, Johnson averaged 25.4 PPG (55.6 FG%), 8.6 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.1 3PG and 1.0 SPG in 34.5 MPG.
In the 28 games without Young, Johnson has averaged 23.1 PPG (51.5 FG%), 10.8 RPG, 8.4 APG, 1.8 3PG and 1.4 SPG in 35.7 MPG.
Some clear patterns play out in those numbers. Johnson plays effectively point power forward as a key offense generator for the Hawks, but that role modifies based on who he’s playing with. When on the court with Young, Johnson was more of a finisher, particularly in the paint, on shots created by Young. Thus, the higher field goal percentage and scoring average. But, when Johnson played without Young, he took on a larger all-around role as a creator, shooter and defender with reflected statistical increases in everything but scoring (volume and efficiency).
And Johnson’s level of play has increased as the season has gone on. In his most recent 15 games without Young, Johnson’s counting stats bumped up to 24.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 8.9 APG and 2.0 3PG. With Young no longer on the team, this level of production becomes the new expected value for Johnson. And if he continues to improve as the season goes along, a rest-of-season average of a 25-point triple-double with strong peripheral numbers is in play.
Fantasy basketball: Trade for Johnson … if you still can
In fantasy hoops, the Young trade makes Johnson a player whose actual value is higher than his perceived value. Johnson’s ADP was 42.4, 36th in the league or a mid-fourth-round value in 10-team leagues. He moved up to 22nd in my most recent points rankings, but even that is misleading because it factors in projected games played.
Johnson played only a combined 88 of the 162 possible games coming into this season, so he was projected for fewer games. However, through half of this season he has only missed four games, so his second-half projected games will increase and … let’s just say, spoiler alert, Johnson will shoot up in the next set of fantasy rankings.
For the season, Johnson ranks No. 4 overall in the ESPN Player Rater for category leagues. Johnson also ranks seventh in the NBA with 52.2 fantasy points per game (FP/G) in the ESPN scoring system, only 1.2 FP/G behind fifth-place Cade Cunningham. And that is with his season-long numbers, including games played with Young. With the numbers Johnson has put up recently without Young, he has clear top-5 achievable fantasy upside in both points and category leagues for the remainder of the season.
Futures: Johnson for Most Improved Player
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Johnson currently has the second-shortest odds to win Most Improved Player at +250, behind odds-on favorite Deni Avdija (-170) and ahead of Keyonte George (10-1) and Peyton Watson (20-1). Avdija and Johnson have really separated from the pack, but at least Johnson is still in plus-money.
As I’ve detailed in this space before, with futures bets it doesn’t make sense to take the risk of a long-term, delayed-gratitude wager if you’re not getting any juice. For that reason alone, despite Avdija’s strong season, I wouldn’t advocate betting on him at -170.
But in this case, we should look even a bit deeper. Avdija, like Johnson, has become more of a point-forward for Portland this season and is on-pace to shatter his career bests in scoring (26.0 PPG) and assists (6.9 APG). But Johnson’s starting point guard has been traded and will no longer be on the team moving forward.
Meanwhile, Trail Blazers starting point guard Jrue Holiday recently returned from injury, and 2023 No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson should return from season-long injury in the second half of the season as well. Avdija is moving to more of an off-ball role, so his assist numbers may be more modest in the second half of the season.
When I factor in that Johnson is plus-money to win this award but projects to a higher statistical ceiling than Avdija moving forward, I do find value in Johnson to win Most Improved Player.
