The scenarios as Welsh clubs eye knockout Euro rugby

For now at least, Wales fields four men’s teams in European rugby – and for only the second time the quartet could all make the knockout rounds.

The 2025-26 group stages finish this weekend with Ospreys and Cardiff already secure in the last 16 of the Challenge Cup but playing for seedings and home advantage.

Scarlets are Wales’ only side in the Champions Cup and they could still sneak through in the premier tournament, drop to the Challenge Cup or be dumped out entirely.

Dragons get things under way on Friday night when defeat to Newcastle in Newport would end their qualification hopes in the Challenge Cup.

Wales has had four teams in knockout action just once before, in 2022-23, and it may not be possible in a year’s time with the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) wanting to cut the number of professional men’s clubs to three.

BBC Sport Wales has a look at the scenarios going into round four.

How to make the knockout stages

The Champions Cup features 24 teams split into four groups of six, with the top four from each pool qualifying for the knockout stages.

The four clubs that come fifth in their respective pools have the consolation of dropping into the second-tier tournament for an away tie.

The Challenge Cup features 18 sides split into three pools of six, with the top four in each group going through to the last 16.

Group tie-breakers

For both Champions and Challenge Cups, if clubs are equal on match points in their groups they are then split by points difference followed by tries scored. If they remain level then lots are drawn.

The importance of seedings

Champions Cup seedings are determined by pool rankings and then match points.

Seedings matter because the highest-ranked clubs from the pool stage will have home venue advantage in the last 16 and quarter-finals, then home country advantage in the semi-finals.

The route to Bilbao is even more favourable for the first and second seeds in the Challenge Cup – they could play three knockout fixtures at their own ground to earn a trip to Basque Country.

The group winners are ranked one to three and second-placed sides as four to six.

The two highest-ranked sides that finish third also get home advantage in the last 16, while those dropping down from the Champions Cup are ranked from nine to 12 and face away games.

Scarlets hoping for help

Taine Plumtree is dejected after Scarlets' defeat by Pau in the Champions Cup — Taine Plumtree joined Scarlets in 2023 [Huw Evans Picture Agency]

Scarlets are currently fifth and will know on Friday night what they need to do against Northampton on Sunday.

Nigel Davies’ side will be knocked out of the top-tier tournament if Pau earn three, four or five match points when hosting Bulls.

If the South African side were to win at Stade du Hameau then Scarlets could sneak fourth place and earn a tough away trip in the Champions Cup by causing a huge upset in the East Midlands.

Any match points earned by Bulls – draw or bonuses – would leave the west Walians needing to respond in kind to ensure they drop down to the Challenge Cup.

In fact, Scarlets will not be guaranteed a slot in the Challenge Cup even if Bulls endure a pointless trip to Pau.

They would also need to avoid a hammering at Franklin’s Gardens to ensure progress on points difference.

If they lose in Northampton but still qualify for the Challenge Cup then they will be seeded 12th and travel to one of the runners-up from the second-tier pool stages.

Champions Cup, Pool Four fixtures

Pau v Bulls – Friday, 16 January (20:00 GMT)
Bristol v Bordeaux-Begles – Sunday, 18 January (13:00 GMT)
Northampton v Scarlets – Sunday, 18 January (15:15 GMT)

Home or away for Ospreys?

Jack Walsh of Ospreys takes on Tommaso di Bartolomeo of Zebre — Ospreys came back from trailing 13-0 at half-time in Italy but lost to a late Zebre try [Huw Evans Picture Agency]

Ospreys, who had a perfect 10 points from 10 in the December fixtures, qualified for the knockout stages despite losing at Zebre last weekend but are now sweating on whether they will enjoy home advantage.

Mark Jones’ side could finish first, second, third or fourth in Pool One depending on how they fare against Montpellier, with Zebre and Connacht looking to overtake them.

If they beat the French side to finish top then their overall seeding will depend on how Benetton, Newcastle, Stade Francais and Ulster get on in other pools.

Ospreys scenarios

Win with a bonus point: They will top the group as long as Montpellier do not claim a bonus. If the French side score four tries but lose by 14 points or more then it will be Ospreys that win the pool on points difference.
Win without a bonus point: They will top the group if they deny Montpellier four tries and win by 14 points of more. Any victory is enough to claim second place in the pool and home advantage.
Draw or defeat: Ospreys are at risk of a tough trip in the knockout stages because third-placed Zebre and fourth-placed Connacht will hope to get maximum points from games against Black Lion, who can still qualify, and eliminated Montauban.

Challenge Cup, Pool One fixtures

Black Lion v Zebre – Saturday, 17 January (13:00 GMT)
Connacht v Montauban – Saturday, 17 January (20:00 GMT)
Ospreys v Montpellier – Saturday, 17 January (20:00 GMT)

Dragons must win and then wait

Rio Dyer is disappointed after Dragons turn the ball over at Perpignan — Rio Dyer won his 24th Wales cap against South Africa in the 2025 autumn finale [Huw Evans Picture Agency]

Dragons sit fifth prior to the final round and, after being demolished by Benetton, can now only earn an away tie in the last 16.

Worryingly, there is a scenario where even a bonus-point win against Newcastle at Rodney Parade on Friday will not be enough.

Dragons will hope for a positive result before waiting for the fixture between Perpignan and Lions in France on Saturday.

Both of those teams are currently two points ahead of Filo Tiatia’s side and with comprehensively better points differences.

The Dragons’ scenarios

Win with a bonus: Will qualify unless there is a draw in Perpignan with both teams scoring four tries.
Win without a bonus: Will qualify if there is a winner in Perpignan with the losers only getting one bonus. Eliminated if there is a draw in Perpignan or the loser gets a pair of bonuses.
Draw: Would need to score four tries to go above Perpignan and Lions, then need one of them to lose in France without a bonus.
Defeat: Out. A loss with a pair of bonuses would technically keep them in the mix but it would need one of the teams to lose by around 80 points in Perpignan.

Both Benetton and Newcastle have already earned home ties in the last 16 but winning the group secures a higher seeding.

The Italians have a one-point lead and finish at winless Lyon, who will know if they still have a chance at sneaking into the top four by kick-off on Sunday afternoon.

Challenge Cup, Pool Two fixtures

Dragons v Newcastle – Friday, 16 January (20:00 GMT)
Perpignan v Lions – Saturday, 17 January (17:30 GMT)
Lyon v Benetton – Sunday, 18 January (13:00 GMT)

Sandy Park shootout

Cardiff's Tom Bowen runs towards the try line with ball in hand — Tom Bowen was one of four Cardiff try scorers against Racing 92 [Huw Evans Picture Agency]

Cardiff are in a similar position to Ospreys – can they earn a last-16 tie at the Arms Park with a positive result at Exeter?

Ulster versus Stade Francais on Saturday will decide who finishes top of Pool Three and that result could potentially open up the runners-up spot before the fixture at Exeter, who are also already secure in the knockout stages.

Cardiff scenarios

Win: Cardiff will finish at least third and are guaranteed a home tie in the last 16 (the third-placed team in Pool Two would not be able to beat their points tally). They will know if Ulster or Stade can be overtaken before kick-off.
Draw: Enough for Cardiff to finish above Exeter, provided Chiefs do not earn an extra try bonus. Also enough to earn a home tie in the last 16.
Defeat: Cardiff drop below Exeter and would travel to one of the pool winners.