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Matt Bowen
The NFL playoffs have entered the divisional round, featuring four enticing matchups. The wild-card round saw three surprising outcomes, with both No. 6 seeds (the 49ers and Bills) advancing, a rare occurrence not seen since 2020.
Will we witness further unexpected victories this weekend? I have outlined critical strategies for success—one on offense and one on defense—for each of the four underdogs in the divisional round. This includes three teams on the road: the Bills, 49ers, and Texans, as well as the Bears, facing a challenging home game against the Rams. These strategies highlight player matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies, and observations from game tape. Additionally, I identified one key player who could significantly influence each game.
Let’s examine how these four underdogs can secure victories in their divisional round matchups, starting with the Bills against the Broncos. (Odds provided by ESPN’s Football Power Index and DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Jump to a team:
BUF | CHI | HOU | SF
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
FPI prediction: DEN, 51.6%
Game line: DEN -1.5
Offensive key to victory: Addressing man coverage
The Broncos utilize man coverage (Cover 1, two-man, zero-man) on a league-leading 60.8% of opponent dropbacks this season. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will implement man pressure, as evidenced by the Broncos’ 31.3% blitz rate, ranking seventh in 2025. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady must design strategies to counter man coverage while ensuring quarterback Josh Allen releases the ball quickly.
Khalil Shakir. Brady can integrate pick/rub concepts to free up receivers and tight ends on wheel routes and out-breaking patterns. He can also devise shot plays and vertical one-on-ones targeting Brandin Cooks and Keon Coleman on the outside.
Defensive key to victory: Late movement and zone discipline
The Bills’ defensive strategy features a heavy reliance on two-high coverage (52.9% of opponent dropbacks) with late movement intended to confuse the offense. Buffalo will rotate safeties pre-snap and maintain superb zone discipline and vision to mitigate passing lanes. It’s unlikely the Bills will change their defensive scheme against Denver’s quarterback Bo Nix.
Against zone defenses this season, Nix achieved a 64.5% completion rate with seven interceptions, producing a 49.4 QBR compared to 82.6 against man coverage. This scenario enables the Bills to deepen their presence at the second level, thus constricting middle-of-the-field throws while having safeties positioned to react to passes. It’s fundamental football for Buffalo; this should suffice against coach Sean Payton’s offensive strategies.
The impact Bills X factor: Safety Cole Bishop clinched the win over the Jaguars with a crucial interception against quarterback Trevor Lawrence in the wild-card round. On Saturday, he’ll need to maintain coverage on deep routes, react to in-breaking patterns, and engage in run support. Bishop recorded three interceptions during the regular season.
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
FPI prediction: SEA, 59.6%
Game line: SEA -7
Offensive key to victory: Generate passing opportunities against Cover 2
The Seahawks present formidable team pursuit on defense. This unit is physical and allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per carry this season. Conversely, the 49ers have struggled with running efficiency featuring Christian McCaffrey. Thus, coach Kyle Shanahan’s passing strategy—absent tight end George Kittle (torn Achilles)—is paramount.
During their Week 18 matchup against Seattle, quarterback Brock Purdy managed only one completion over 20 yards and encountered a significant amount of two-deep zone. He completed 12 of 16 passes against zone but averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt. The Seahawks were willing to concede underneath throws, opting for sound tackling.
Shanahan needs to create advantageous passing windows for Purdy by using play-action early, drawing Seahawks’ linebackers and safeties out of their alignments. Finding the right targets and establishing rhythm are critical to generating explosive plays. Jauan Jennings and Demarcus Robinson should exploit intermediate routes while tight end Jake Tonges aims to stretch the field.
1:23
Stephen A. has some high praise for Kyle Shanahan
Stephen A. Smith gives 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan his flowers after the team’s playoff win over the Eagles.
Defensive key to victory: Contain the Seahawks’ run game on first downs
Under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, the 49ers can diversify their strategy against quarterback Sam Darnold in passing scenarios. However, it’s essential for them to first address the Seahawks’ zone run game during initial downs.
In Week 18, Kenneth Walker III averaged 7.5 yards per carry using outside zone plays, successfully exploiting the edges and finding seams for vertical gains. Zach Charbonnet contributed with 7.4 yards per carry on inside zone strategies, adeptly bending plays to daylight.
This challenge stems more from execution than scheme; Saleh can adjust the numbers at the line when confronting 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, two wide receivers) and 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers). Success hinges on effectively sealing the edges, which San Francisco struggled with during their Week 18 encounter. Their cutback defenders must also execute with greater discipline.
Ultimately, allowing 5.0 yards per carry on first down cannot happen again.
The impact 49ers X factor: Tonges may not possess Kittle’s agility, but he is capable of executing the routes needed in Shanahan’s offense. This season, he secured 34 passes for five touchdowns. Following Kittle’s exit from the wild-card round versus the Eagles, Tonges managed just one catch for 14 yards. In Seattle, his ability to exploit seams and crossers, as well as occupy the voids in the underneath zone, will be crucial for Purdy.
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
FPI prediction: NE, 52.0%
Game line: NE -3
Offensive key to victory: Generate explosive plays on high-low reads
With Nico Collins’ (concussion) status in question, the Texans must devise ways to create explosive plays. Observing Houston’s game tape, coordinator Nick Caley frequently designs coverage voids on high-low concepts for quarterback C.J. Stroud.
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In this scenario, the Texans can utilize Christian Kirk and rookie Jaylin Noel on deep over routes to penetrate the outside third of the coverage. These rhythm-based throws for Stroud can lead to big plays, as demonstrated when targeting Kirk against Pittsburgh in the wild-card round, where Kirk had eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown. Caley can employ play-action to set up Stroud’s protections, compelling some defenders to drop back.
Defensive key to victory: Employ man-free coverage
Expect some two-deep zone looks from DeMeco Ryans’ defense on Sunday. However, the Texans’ deployment of man-free coverage on 34% of opponent dropbacks (the sixth most in the NFL) may disrupt timing for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.
Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, alongside Jalen Pitre in the slot, are well-equipped to challenge New England’s wide receivers, crucial given the high volume of short throws (outs, in-breakers, pivots, and crossers) in the Patriots’ passing scheme.
The impact Texans X factor: Calen Bullock boasts remarkable range as a safety, allowing him to trace the ball from deep positions and disrupt vertical routes along the boundary in Cover 2. His capability to close in on plays is integral to Houston’s defense. Bullock recorded four interceptions during the regular season, returning one for a touchdown against Pittsburgh.
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
FPI prediction: LAR, 60.7%
Game line: LAR -3.5
Offensive key to victory: Emphasize the passing game in 12 personnel
The Bears have achieved 21 completions of 20 or more yards from 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two receivers) this season, ranking second overall in the league. By deploying this formation, coach Ben Johnson increases the effectiveness of pass protection against Rams edge rushers Jared Verse and Byron Young, ensuring quarterback Caleb Williams has ample time for deep throws or opportunities against a slower L.A. secondary.
Moreover, Chicago can leverage tight end Colston Loveland’s versatility to generate advantageous matchups on the perimeter against the Rams’ cornerbacks.
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What can Bears do to slow down Rams’ offense Sunday?
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Defensive key to victory: Implement two-man coverage on third downs
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has deployed the Bears in two-man coverage on 11.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, ranking sixth in the league. This approach should be more prominently used on third downs against quarterback Matthew Stafford.
This strategy allows the Bears to rotate safeties, limiting potent vertical routes to the strong side, while using the sideline safety to defend intermediate attempts. A two-man coverage scheme will also curtail the Rams’ favored routes in the middle and restrict free movement for receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The impact Bears X factor: Rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III has secured 20 of 27 targets over his last four games, providing a multi-faceted threat as either a screen or in fly sweeps. With his keen vision and quick movements, Burden can deliver impactful plays.
