The AFC East champion New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans on Sunday, with both teams advancing out of the wild-card round. The Texans pulled away late to win 30-6 at the Pittsburgh Steelers, while New England did the same in a 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Can Drake Maye lead the Patriots to their first AFC Championship Game appearance post-Tom Brady? Will CJ Stroud — likely without top wideout Nico Collins — do enough to help an elite defense?
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Ben Fawkes gathered quotes from oddsmakers for all the games and our team of NFL handicappers provides their favorite wagers on the game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
What oddsmakers are saying
«Currently sitting Patriots laying 3. No movement on the spread in this one. Total opened 42.5, now down to 41 here. While Stroud did turn the ball over against the Steelers, it was Houston’s defense that carried that game. I thought New England’s defense was also impressive against the Chargers. We have taken early money on the ‘dog here with Houston, both on spread and money line.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata
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«Both coming off games where their defenses shined. So far the action is more balanced than would be expected, action slightly more on the Patriots. Sharper action on New England.» — Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook
Best bets
Matt Russell: Stroud wasn’t running for his life in Pittsburgh, but having seen how rattled he was in the pocket at times, maybe he should have been?
Stroud started the season using his legs, running for more than 20 yards per game in the first seven games of the season, and with two carries for 12 yards, he seemed headed for 20 before suffering a concussion against the Broncos in Week 8. After coming back, Stroud’s running ability took a back seat, but if there was ever a reminder that his internal countdown should include a quick sprint out of the pocket, it’s the tape from Monday’s game.
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If Stroud also took a look at the Chargers-Patriots wild-card game, he likely saw tight coverage from New England, causing Chargers QB Justin Herbert to tuck it and go, with 10 total rushing attempts for 57 yards.
Now deep into the playoffs, it’s time for Stroud to access his modest scrambling ability to extend a drive or two.
Bet: Over 10.5 rushing yards (-120)
Matt Jacob: The question: What are the only teams to score more than 20 points against the Houston Texans this season?
The answer: Seattle, Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Indianapolis.
Ironically, Houston won three of those games, all at home (36-29 vs. the Jaguars; 23-21 vs. the Raiders; and 38-30 vs. the Colts in the regular-season finale). The only time the Texans have allowed more than 20 points on the road? A 27-19 loss at Seattle in Week 7.
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Since that contest, Houston has hit the highway six times and given up 13 points (Tennessee), 16 (Indy), 10 (Kansas City), 16 (Chargers) and 6 (Pittsburgh). And in their first three road games of 2025, the Texans held the Rams (14), Jaguars (17) and Ravens (10) to five touchdowns and 41 combined points.
Now comes a trip to New England to face a Patriots team that managed just 16 points in last week’s Wild Card win against the visiting Chargers. In that contest, the Pats squandered multiple scoring opportunities against a defense that is really good — but not even close to Houston’s level.
Bottom line: New England may pull out a victory in this one, but it won’t because the offense explodes for three-plus touchdowns.
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Bet: Patriots under 20.5 total points (+110)
Ed Feng: This game is about an up-and-coming QB in Maye against the NFL’s best defense. In my adjusted passing success rate, Maye is expected to be 8.2% better than league average. Houston is the best pass defense and predicted to perform 8.3% better than league average in passing success rate.
In my best member model, I threw out New England’s preseason prior because Maye’s performance made it irrelevant. I still include the preseason prior for all other teams. My best prediction is New England by 3.8 points at home.
If you only consider data from the current season, Houston, behind the strength of its defense, is rated slightly higher than New England. This would make New England a 2-point favorite.
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Houston’s leading receiver Nico Collins seems unlikely to play after getting carted off the field in Pittsburgh with a concussion. If Stroud can be effective without Collins, Houston is probably the right side based on data from the current season.
Lean: Houston +3
