MIAMI — Indiana is on the cusp of capping off one of the most dramatic program U-turns in the history of college football.
Miami is on the verge of completing a generational revival, as it has mostly slogged through its existence in the ACC since joining in 2004.
The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) have been a testament to perfection all season — they are undefeated, play cleaner football than anyone in the power conferences and have become the fresh face of success in this transient era of college football. The program is seeking its first national title and hasn’t finished in the top five since 1967.
The No. 10 Hurricanes bring a superior roster in terms of pure talent, as they’ve gone from the bubble of the College Football Playoff to positioning themselves with home-field advantage for a shot at the program’s first national title since 2001. (The confluence of location and the novelty of the Hoosiers have put the average ticket price hovering around $4,000 on the secondary market.)
Who will win? We polled 25 opposing coaches, scouts and front office members who played against or studied the teams. The results were resounding, with 21 of 25 respondents picking Indiana.
Why the Hoosiers? And what’s Miami’s path to victory as nearly a touchdown underdog? The NFL scouts and opposing coaches/assistants break down the key factors looming over the game.
Who has the talent advantage?
Maybe the biggest compliment to the insta-juggernaut Curt Cignetti has created at Indiana?
The same scouts that almost unanimously favor Indiana also acknowledge Miami has a roster with more NFL talent.
How distinct is this advantage from a pure talent perspective? Using NFL draft picks as a barometer isn’t a perfect metric.
This variable is tricky, as there are players with draft decisions who could decide to return to school. But Miami projects to have 12 draftable players, although they’ll end up with fewer if the likes of tailback Mark Fletcher, left tackle Markel Bell and Ahmad Moten Sr. return, as the school has indicated to scouts. Indiana’s reality is closer to six players drafted this year.
Carson Beck projects as a third- or fourth-round pick, but scouts wonder if this push to the title game, and a big game on Monday, might boost his stock. There are at least six NFL teams with overt needs at quarterback — Miami, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Vegas and Arizona — and Beck or Penn State’s Drew Allar is likely to be the third quarterback off the board.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the presumptive No. 1 pick and by far the best prospect on the field. Other Hoosiers who’ll hear their names called include star receiver Elijah Sarratt, corner D’Angelo Ponds and linebacker Aiden Fisher. None of those three are likely top 50 picks.
«Miami has better personnel,» said an opposing coach. «But because Miami is limited in what they do schematically, I think Mendoza will have a good day. They just need to protect him.»
What is Miami’s path to victory?
The joke among coaches is that if Miami is going to win, it’s going to be the shortest title game in history. Miami huddles, and often in the College Football Playoff didn’t approach the line of scrimmage until there were about 15 seconds left on the play clock.
Miami dominated time of possession against Ole Miss, controlling the ball for 41:22 of the game clock. It had four drives of more than 13 plays. While that time of possession came in part because of Ole Miss’ tempo, the Canes will need the tenor of this game to be similar.
A peek at what it needs to look like for the Hurricanes came on Oregon’s second drive against Indiana last round. After Dante Moore threw a pick-six on the opening drive, he calmly executed a 14-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game that took nearly eight minutes off the clock. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson — an old Air Raid disciple — will need to stay patient, run the ball and take what’s available.
The barometer early will be Miami’s run game. Fletcher has 58 carries for 395 yards in the playoff, an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He has moved piles of defenders with such consistency, it’s as if he’s angling for a Caterpillar NIL deal.
«I think Miami will shorten the game and run the ball,» said a veteran NFL scout. «I do think it’s going to be a close game. Ultimately, the Indiana quarterback is going to make more throws on third down.»
Right tackle Francis Mauigoa is the anchor of Miami’s O-line, as he projects as the highest draft pick on Miami’s offense. (Freshman Malachi Toney is the most talented player, but he’s not draft-eligible.)
At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Mauigoa might end up as a guard in the NFL. But he’s a road grader who’ll need to exploit an Indiana defensive line that has lost two key defensive line stars, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, to injury.
One scout notes Mauigoa has the raw power and anchor to have a «high ceiling» in the NFL. He’ll be needed to dominate the point of attack to help drain the clock and keep this game low-scoring.
Can Miami have an Ohio State replay?
Perhaps the biggest statistical anomaly in this postseason came in Miami’s victory over Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes ended the game with zero penalties. They were the first team in CFP history to not commit a penalty.
Indiana’s identity revolves around clean, mistake-free football. Miami’s penchant for penalties has hounded it this season, other than that Ohio State game. Miami combined for 21 penalties that cost them 163 yards in losses to SMU and Louisville.
The numbers bear this out as one of the game’s biggest statistical discrepancies. Indiana is No. 2 nationally in fewest penalty yards, with 26.9 per game. Miami is No. 85 with 57.1 yards. Per ESPN Research, in four of Miami’s six one-score games this year, Miami had at least nine penalties.
None loomed larger for the Hurricanes than an unnecessary roughness call on defensive lineman Marquise Lightfoot that extended SMU’s game-tying drive that forced overtime in Miami’s loss in Dallas.
Indiana’s defense has been particularly efficient, as they’ve been called for just 13 penalties as a unit all year. Army is No. 1 with seven.
A place to watch Monday night will be the offensive line.
Indiana has not been infallible there, as it had seven pre-snap penalties in its win at Oregon. Six of them were false starts and another was a delay of game. Could similar issues loom if Miami fans can make crowd noise a factor? (The crowd projects as a 50-50 split, with the way tickets have been divided.)
Miami’s offensive line has been a strength, but it is not mistake free. It has been penalized 37 times this season, which is fourth most in the FBS, per ESPN Research. The Hurricanes have had 24 false starts, which is second most in the FBS. Miami had three false starts against Ole Miss.
Miami needs to play as it did against Ohio State to pull the upset.
Rolijah Hardy, who tackled Iowa’s DJ Vonnahme for a 1-yard loss.
«That’s one of my favorite plays for the season, and I didn’t make it,» he said. «[Hardy] blew it up for the TFL and you can see me on film kind of pointing at my head. So that’s what gets me excited during football games. I can kind of call out your bluff and things like that.»
Fisher is a former high school quarterback. And his understanding of that side of the ball helps him hear the quarterback’s verbiage — «different things like protections, audibles and checks» — and use that information to predict plays later in the game.
Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines calls Fisher «an elite mind.»
«The thing about a quarterback and him walking up to the line of scrimmage is the quarterback is actually conveying a real thing,» Haines told ESPN. «The words matter. It start with an R and L (for right and left), East Coast, West Coast. Any team has like these conceptual things behind what they’re saying, and he can start to isolate some of those.
«If you add that to the formational tendencies, he’s going to have a pretty good idea of what you’re thinking here.»
The Heisman winner vs. a banged-up Miami secondary
The uncertainty in the secondary for Miami looms over this game, especially in the first half.
Miami defensive back Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game after a targeting call. Miami has another defensive back, Damari Brown, who hasn’t played since Nov. 29 and isn’t certain to play, as Mario Cristobal referred to him as «day-to-day.»
Both are key members of the secondary, as Lucas has 11 starts and Brown has five this season. They are heavy parts of Miami’s corner rotation.
Another key corner, OJ Frederique, played just seven snaps against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. He told ESPN that he’s ready to play and «fully healthy.» He returned for the playoff against Texas A&M after not playing for nearly two months. He’s dealing with a nagging leg injury.
That’s going to leave Miami likely relying on some less experienced defensive backs, especially until Lucas returns in the second half.
True freshman corner Ja’Boree Antoine played 24 snaps against Ole Miss and 14 on defense, which were his third most in a game this year and most in a game of consequence.
Just as Ole Miss went at Antoine when he entered last week, expect Indiana to try and exploit Miami’s secondary flux early in the game.
Freshman Chris Ewald, who has played in four games and 27 total snaps, and Jadais Richard, a Vanderbilt transfer who has played in four games and has 21 snaps this year, are players to watch. Miami could also shuffle more experienced players from nickel or safety to help out.
Don’t be surprised to see Mendoza and Indiana’s deep receiving corps look to find weaknesses in Miami’s back end. Opposing coaches have viewed it as Miami’s biggest weakness all year.
«Both offenses will know what’s coming because the defenses are in the same tree,» said an opposing coach. «If you know what the other team is doing, who is more dangerous? I think Indiana when they know, they make this a high-scoring game. Miami isn’t built to score like that.»
ESPN research producers Marisa Dowling and Sopan Shah contributed to this story.
