-
David Schoenfield
The Hall of Fame voting results from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with two center fielders looking to join Jeff Kent, who was elected in December in the Contemporary Era Committee voting, in the Class of 2026.
A year ago, I wrote of the 2025 candidates for the Hall of Fame, «This year’s ballot is probably the weakest since the early 2000s.» Well, the 2026 edition is probably even weaker. The 2025 ballot at least featured newcomers Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, who were elected along with Billy Wagner. Pitcher Cole Hamels is the only newcomer to the ballot in 2026 with more than 50 career WAR.
Here’s one way to look at it. The 2026 ballot features 27 players worth a combined 1,282 WAR, with 11 exceeding 50 career WAR. The 2013 ballot featured 37 candidates. The top 27 that year were worth 1,672 combined WAR and included 16 players who exceeded 50 career WAR.
The kicker: Nobody made it that year. That said, 10 players from that ballot have since been elected to the Hall of Fame. And while only Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have a chance to make it this year, this ballot — despite its relative lack of star power — will likely feature several future Hall of Famers, as well.
Here’s what to look for in the results from Tuesday’s announcement, remembering the general guidelines:
-
A player needs to receive votes on 75% of ballots to get elected (not rounded up).
-
A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.
-
Writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players.
-
A players can remain on the ballot for 10 years.
Will Beltran and Jones get in?
Last year, Beltran received 70.3% of the vote in his third year on the ballot, while Jones received 66.2% in his eighth year. According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Beltran is polling at 89.2% of the publicly revealed ballots, with Jones at 83.5%. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will get in. Last year, Beltran polled at just above 80% before the announcement, so he lost 10 percentage points when the final results came in, and Jones was at 72.4%, so he lost about six percentage points. While it’s looking good, it still might be a nervy night for both.
One thing to note: We could use more center fielders in the Hall. In looking at Hall of Famers who had their most career value from 1960 and on, center fielders are tied with designated hitters as the least represented position (and that’s counting Frank Thomas as a first baseman). Starting pitchers obviously have the most, but look at the breakdown for position players:
Mike Trout and Griffey. Beltran’s traditional counting stats also are impressive, with 435 home runs, 2,725 hits and 1,587 RBIs. That sounds like a Hall of Famer. Jones is less of a slam dunk with 62.7 WAR that relies heavily on his defensive metrics, but that’s still seventh among center fielders since 1960 (counting Reggie Smith as a right fielder).
How will Chase Utley do?
Utley is the third-highest returning vote-getter, after polling at 39.8% in 2025. He’s at 67.9% on the public ballots, which is a nice increase from 51.6% of the pre-announcement vote he received last year. This is just his third year on the ballot, so the momentum looks positive. Utley is similar to Todd Helton, who was elected in 2024 on his sixth time on the ballot. Both were players with a very high peak value, with Helton earning 37.5 of his 61.8 career WAR in a five-year stretch from 2000 to 2004 and Utley earning 39.7 of his 64.6 WAR from 2005 to 2009.
Utley’s career also is in contrast to the recently elected second baseman Kent:
Utley: .275/.358/.465, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 1,885 H, 117 OPS+, 64.6 WAR
Kent: .290/.356/.500, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 H, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
Utley had a higher peak value and better defensive metrics (although not necessarily a great defensive reputation), while Kent had longevity and better counting stats (and an MVP Award, which eluded Utley). Utley versus Kent mirrors the overall issue that Hall of Fame voters must consider: Do you prefer a player with a high peak value — Utley had 41 wins above average as compared with 26 for Kent — or one who simply played for a longer time? Historically, the BBWAA favors career length over peak value. Utley will be a good test to determine if we’re seeing more of a shift — or at least more appreciation — for high peak performance.
How will Cole Hamels do in his first year on the ballot?
Utley is joined on the ballot this year by fellow 2008 World Series star Hamels, who was National League Championship Series and World Series MVP for the Philadelphia Phillies. Hamels has 163 career wins and no Cy Young Awards but with 57.9 career pitching WAR. That’s pretty close to Sabathia’s total of 61.8, and Sabathia sailed in on his first ballot. Hamels has the better adjusted ERA (123 to 116). The big difference, of course, is that wins column: Sabathia won 251 games.
National League » | American League »
Hamels and Felix Hernandez, back for his second time on the ballot, can be considered part of a new generation of pitchers for voters to consider: They have fewer innings and fewer wins (King Felix won 169 games) than your conventional Hall of Fame starting pitcher, sure. But perhaps the standards must change for starters who debuted in the past 20 years; otherwise, the Hall will be closed to nearly an entire generation of starting pitchers (except a few obvious candidates, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke among them). Hernandez received 20.6% of the vote last year, which isn’t a strong starting point but also doesn’t mean he’ll never get elected; we just mentioned Helton’s election in Year 6, after starting at 16.5% in his first year.
How strong are the cases for Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle?
I ran this comparison last year:
Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 WAR, 3,577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3,316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle: 214-160, 60.0 WAR, 3,283 IP, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle didn’t have as many wins, although he recorded 15 in his final season, so he could have stuck around and easily won a lot more games. Over his final five seasons, Sabathia went 46-46 with a 4.21 ERA and 8.6 WAR, so it’s not as if he added a lot of value to get all those extra wins. Buehrle also never had the luxury of pitching for the Yankees and their high-powered lineups, but he did win a World Series with the White Sox in 2005. If the argument is Sabathia had a higher peak value, well, check out career wins above average:
Sabathia: 28.2
Pettitte: 29.8
Buehrle: 29.3
Pettitte received just 27.9% of the vote in 2025, with Buehrle at 11.4%. Hamels, by the way, had 35.9 WAA, with Hernandez at 24.5.
Who else has a shot down the road?
Bold MLB predictions for 2026 »
Dustin Pedroia and David Wright were on their way to the Hall of Fame before injuries shortened their careers. Pedroia still finished with 51.8 career WAR and Wright with 49.1, which at least makes them viable Hall candidates. Unfortunately, both finished with fewer than 2,000 career hits. That total has generally been a nonstarter for a post-World War II potential Hall of Famer, although in recent years, the special committees have elected Dick Allen, Tony Oliva and Gil Hodges, each with less than 2,000 hits. If Jones does make it in after finishing with 1,933 hits, he’ll be the first position player the BBWAA will have elected with fewer than 2,000 hits since Ralph Kiner in 1975.
Pedroia received 11.9% of the vote in his first year on the ballot, while Wright received 8.1% in his second year. While they are Hall of Fame long shots right now, the combination of a weak ballot and perhaps a changing emphasis to peak value could help them gain some momentum. If Jones and Utley eventually get elected, it could crash the 2,000-hit barrier that the BBWAA has enforced — and help Pedroia and Wright down the road. (Buster Posey will join the ballot next year, and he finished with 1,500 hits.)
What about A-Rod and Manny?
Finally, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. Rodriguez is on the ballot for the fifth time and Ramirez for the final time. Rodriguez recently told The Athletic he has «divorced» himself from the idea that he’ll make the Hall of Fame. After receiving 37% of the vote last year, that’s probably the case. Barry Bonds got to 66% in his final year and Roger Clemens 65%, and as the electorate gets younger and more forgiving, maybe Rodriguez has a chance. But Clemens and Bonds also were polling over 50% in their fifth year. Bonds and Clemens also failed to receive any support in the recent Contemporary Era vote that elected Kent.
