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Jeremy Fowler
Making bold predictions on an upcoming NFL season is a tough business. It’s like the draft — hitting on 40-50% of first-round picks is very hard to do.
We here at ESPN like the challenge so much that each January we ask industry sources around the league to forecast the season. The possibilities are limitless: free agency signings, retirements, contenders and pretenders, trades and MVP favorites.
Last year’s forecast reminds us just how fast of a moving target the NFL news cycle really is. Even when the concept is right — DK Metcalf getting traded — you can pick the wrong team (Chargers instead of Steelers). Sam Darnold didn’t go to the Raiders, as we predicted, but the man he replaced in Seattle, Geno Smith, did. This is a league that’s impossible to pin down, that thrives off hold-my-beer theatrics. And the ripple effects of the offseason are just beginning. Just look at the coaching carousel, which was supposed to be somewhat tame — until 10 jobs opened, including those of highly decorated coaches such as Mike Tomlin (stepped down), John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott.
We’re still weeks away from a robust trade market and quarterbacks changing teams. Even if futile, here are a handful of bold predictions from league executives, coaches and scouts.
Ravens trade Lamar Jackson to the Raiders
This potential pairing has made its way through the rumor mill, and multiple people I spoke with who track such things used their one bold prediction in this exercise to designate Jackson a Raider.
To take Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti at his word is to assume Jackson will remain in Baltimore. Bisciotti was clear he wants a contract extension for Jackson by March.
But if we’re going bold …
«It just seems like there’s been some consternation there with Lamar and the Ravens, and this would be the ultimate Mark Davis move,» an NFL personnel evaluator said. «I’m not even convinced everybody with Vegas would be on board with it but it would instantly solve their quarterback problems.»
From chemistry issues with the previous coaching staff to concerns about his availability, Jackson’s relationship with the Ravens does not seem to be in the best spot. Baltimore probably realizes life with a two-time MVP is better than life without, which would mean a big contract offer is coming. But this is a situation to monitor, and how Jackson hits it off with the new head coach feels significant.
Eagles trade A.J. Brown to the Bills
Brown’s happy-to-be-here quotient in Philly is miserably low. He’s a great player and great players are hard to replace. But the Eagles have never been scared to make a move due to the salary cap implications. The Eagles actually can save $7 million on the cap by designating Brown a post-June 1 trade.
And it feels like it’s time. Some league execs have felt that way since October.
«The Bills have to upgrade there — their best receiver is Khalil Shakir, who is a nice player but he’s not a top guy,» an NFL personnel evaluator said. «Brown is an immediate upgrade and he’s still young [turning 29 in June]. And the Eagles can build the passing game around DeVonta Smith and a high draft pick.»
Other potential fits, via NFL scouts: the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders.
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The sense for a while has been that Cousins’ time in Atlanta was short — especially when both sides restructured his contract that includes $67.9 million in 2027 salary, vesting March 13. The Falcons will want nothing to do with that number. But contracts can be amended — or players can be cut and re-signed — and the arrival of coach Kevin Stefanski could make keeping Cousins at least mildly tempting as a bridge option.
Stefanski was Cousins’ offensive coordinator in Minnesota in 2019, when Cousins completed nearly 70% of his passes for 3,603 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Cousins knows Stefanski’s wide-zone scheme well.
«[The Falcons] bet on Michael Penix not getting hurt and he got hurt,» said an NFC executive. Penix had the ACL in his left knee repaired in November, his fifth major surgery dating back to college.
«They are going to need somebody early in the season due to the injury, and Cousins played OK for them late last year. It seems Cousins has always respected Kevin. Both sides have a decent option in their back pockets.»
The flip side: Cousins might want out after two years of uncertainty in Atlanta, and he has a mechanism to make that happen with the contract revision. Perhaps he wants to make himself available to Minnesota or others.
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Malik Willis to the Dolphins or Browns
If Daniel Jones returns to the Indianapolis Colts as many expect, Willis emerges as a possible top free agent at the position.
Willis made some coin with his performance in relief of Jordan Love in Green Bay, showing dual-threat ability that a new offensive mind could mold.
«I just don’t think [the Browns] go into the season with Shedeur [Sanders] as their top option,» an NFC personnel man said. «And getting the right quarterback in the draft isn’t a guarantee based on where they pick.»
The Browns have the Nos. 6 and 24 picks in the first round of April’s draft.
No regime will know Willis’ strengths better than Miami, which just hired a brain trust of GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley from Green Bay. The Packers valued Willis’ development and Miami could bear the fruits of that labor.
Colts win AFC South for first time since 2014
NFL parity makes the Colts’ 11-year drought without a divisional title truly befuddling when considering the talent on the roster and four winning seasons during that span.
The Colts appeared poised for a breakthrough with the 8-2 start to 2025 before injuries derailed the season and prompted Indy to call 44-year-old Philip Rivers off the couch to quarterback the team.
«But they showed a proof of concept with what they had through 10 games,» an AFC executive said. «They had Daniel Jones playing well. The roster has talent. They are closer than people might think.»
First, Indy has several key free agents to attempt to re-sign, from Jones to wide receiver Alec Pierce to right tackle Braden Smith.
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Pitts’ fifth season was his best as a pro, with 88 catches for 928 yards and five touchdowns.
The tag for tight ends projects to be $15.9 million.
«The number is reasonable and is a good basis for a long-term deal for him,» an AFC executive said. «Not sure what they do with Drake London but keeping Pitts seems like a good move at this stage.»
George Pickens’ situation in Dallas gets sticky
The Cowboys are expected to franchise-tag Pickens, which would pay him around $28 million next season. But Pickens will want a long-term deal above that number, and if Dallas doesn’t give him that, some around the league wonder whether he stays away from the team for a large portion of the offseason or even training camp.
«I just don’t see him, coming off the season he had, welcoming the tag with open arms,» a veteran AFC coach said.
If tagged, both sides would have until July 15 to reach a deal. Pickens can choose not to sign the tag as a leverage method.
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Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray are all made available — for the Jets
This notion isn’t exactly bold — all three quarterbacks appear to not be in the long-term plans of their current franchises. But they are each former Pro Bowlers and several teams have a glaring need at the position each year.
«Do the Jets get one of those three — that’s really the question I have,» an AFC executive said. «They could go young and load up for the 2027 draft of quarterbacks, but the head coach [Aaron Glenn] probably needs to win, so he might need more of a reliable option.»
Miami and Arizona are saddled with large guarantees on deals with Tagovailoa and Murray, respectively. Murray would make more sense to New York, given Tagovailoa’s ties to the AFC East, but not everyone is convinced Arizona owner Michael Bidwill would pay a significant portion of Murray’s $37 million in guarantees for him to not play in Arizona. Smith’s contract is more manageable, with $18.5 million already guaranteed for 2026 (another $8 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the new league year). The 35-year-old spent his first four seasons with the Jets, throwing 28 touchdowns and 36 interceptions before moving on.
The Jets will need to make significant plans for a veteran passer regardless.
