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Emily Keogh
Arsenal are facing a run of «must-win» fixtures this month across their next eight games, in four different competitions, that will come to define their season.
The Women’s Super League title race is slowly slipping out of their grasp after a sluggish start to their season, so the last thing the Gunners needed was an expanded fixture list. Yet the reward for last summer’s UEFA Women’s Champions League (UWCL) triumph in Lisbon was participation in the inaugural FIFA Women’s Champions Cup, bringing two additional matches in late January/early February.
Meanwhile, the price for Arsenal’s poor start to their UWCL defense was a place in the playoffs, so Renée Slegers’ side have added a further two games to the list, against Belgian minnows OH Leuven, to try to secure a place in the knockout stages.
As a result, the club now face four extra games across four vital weeks — four more than title rivals Chelsea and WSL leaders Manchester City; two more than Manchester United, who are also in the UWCL playoffs.
More concerning still, every one of those matches carries high stakes: either a key game in a knockout competition, or one that requires a victory to preserve any remaining hope of sustaining their WSL title challenge — as they sit 10 points behind City.
Arsenal were alive in five separate competitions between Jan. 18-Feb. 18, but, after losing 1-0 to Man United in the League Cup semifinals on Wednesday, the club have already lost their first chance at silverware this season following another wasteful display. Now they have rivals Chelsea and Man City to come next in the WSL, with two Champions Cup games in between, and more FA Cup games on the horizon. Things are looking tough.
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Trying to keep the Women’s Super League title race alive
Defeat to Chelsea on Saturday would push Arsenal even further out of the title race and even put their place in next season’s Champions League in jeopardy (top three is required to secure at least a qualification spot.)
The Gunners are third on 23 points, level with Tottenham, and trail Chelsea by four points. But more concerning is the 10-point gulf to leaders City, who have not dropped any points since the opening weekend of the season.
That means this weekend’s game with Chelsea is a «must-win» for Arsenal — a phrase that has become uncomfortably familiar in recent years. Time and again, the Gunners have found themselves in these situations, yet have struggled to resolve the issues that prevent them from sustaining the consistency needed for a genuine title challenge. Even last season’s second-place finish came at a distance, as they ended up 12 points behind champions Chelsea.
Arsenal are already on the back foot after key winger Olivia Smith was handed a second yellow card in the League Cup semifinal on Wednesday, which means a one-game ban will see her suspended for the Chelsea clash. The last WSL meeting with the Blues in early November was a fixture marred by controversy, with officiating decisions and the lack of VAR dominating the narrative. In that context, the 1-1 draw may have represented a best-case outcome, though plenty thought that Arsenal deserved more after having two goals ruled out.
However, Slegers’ side have taken just three points from a possible 12 against their top-four rivals this season, underlining the scale of the task ahead of them. They desperately need the points, but they also need to prove to an increasingly skeptical fanbase that they can compete at the top of the domestic game.
Even if they do beat Chelsea, Arsenal will face another pivotal test against league leaders City on Feb. 8. A City win there would virtually guarantee them the title with seven matchdays left. So the title race hangs in the balance over the next few weeks and, with it, Arsenal’s standing as one of the women’s game’s true heavyweights.
Taking on the world in the Champions Cup
Arsenal begin their campaign on Jan. 28 against an unfamiliar opponent in AS FAR, the Moroccan champions and winners of the CAF Champions League, in the semifinals. AS FAR have dominated domestically, claiming every league title since 2016 and every Throne Cup since 2013, and a victory would set up a meeting with either NWSL side Gotham FC or Brazilian outfit Corinthians in the final on Feb. 1 (the same day as Chelsea travel to Man City in the WSL.)
The Champions Cup tournament was shoehorned in after FIFA’s decision to postpone the Women’s Club World Cup to 2028, and has had its critics already.
Indeed, it was initially scheduled to stage its semifinals and final on the west coast of the United States, despite falling in the middle of the English domestic season and between two crucial fixtures in the title race. But sources have told ESPN that Arsenal pushed back against both the proposed location and the travel demands and, as a result, the competition was relocated to London — with the semifinals at Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium and the final to be hosted at the Gunners’ home of the Emirates Stadium.
There is a significant disparity in resources between Arsenal and both AS FAR and Corinthians; Gotham are the closest comparable opponent in terms of development and infrastructure, but the NWSL season concluded in November. Although the American side have spent January touring Europe to prepare, they may still be lacking match rhythm.
All three opponents are beatable for Arsenal, though each present a largely unknown challenge.
While the Champions Cup adds further fixtures to an already congested calendar and raises concerns over player workload, the opportunity to secure some silverware does carry some considerable weight. After a poor start to the season and the looming prospect of another trophyless campaign for Arsenal, success could provide a much-needed morale boost.
With supporters increasingly disengaged following disappointing results, and several first-team players having already been informed they will not be offered new contracts next season — something that could have mental repercussions on the squad dynamic — a mid-season triumph could help galvanize both the squad and fanbase.
Whether the potential reward outweighs the risk of derailing the remainder of their campaign remains to be seen.
Navigating the Champions League playoffs
Arsenal needed to finish in the UWCL top four to avoid additional playoff matches crammed into their already demanding schedule. The reigning champions only have themselves to blame, making life significantly harder for themselves after defeats to Bayern Munich and OL Lyonnes ensured their route would not be straightforward.
Two playoff games against OH Leuven are the consequence of a poor start to their campaign, marked by inconsistency and a lack of resilience.
Debutants Leuven had never previously reached the UWCL qualifying rounds and are the lowest-ranked side in the competition. Arsenal comfortably defeated them 3-0 in the league phase, but it is the added travel, preparation, and psychological burden of two extra matches that poses the greater challenge. They are likely to progress, barring a major upset, yet familiar foes Chelsea await in the quarterfinals.
By the time those quarterfinals arrive — scheduled for March 24-25 and April 1-2 — Arsenal could already have relinquished the WSL and will only have the FA Cup (with a game against Bristol City on Feb. 22 and the quarterfinals scheduled for April 5) to play for. Should they fail to defend their European crown as well, it would be difficult to label the campaign a success — even if silverware were secured via the Champions Cup or FA Cup.
A season hanging in the balance
Last season, morale in the stands dipped sharply when Arsenal exited the League Cup and FA Cup in quick succession then dropped out the title race by spring. It was only saved by their successful UWCL campaign.
But with multiple defining fixtures arriving inside a month once again this year — and off the back of the failure to reach the League Cup final, a trophy they won back-to-back in 2023 and 2024 — supporter confidence and the mentality of the players will be tested to their limits well before the season reaches its conclusion.
Arsenal have identified a lack of resilience within the squad which has helped to cause the recent derailment — one of the reasons that they wanted Slegers to sign a new contract — yet despite being in plenty of backs-against-the-wall situations, we are yet to see evidence of the grit needed to challenge across multiple competitions at the highest level, as rivals Chelsea do.
One way or another, this will be a defining few weeks for Arsenal — and its consequences with extend far beyond the contents of the trophy cabinet.
