The conference championship round doesn’t have Josh Allen, and we knew it wouldn’t have Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and some other star quarterbacks, but it does feature four very good, well-coached teams.
The Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots all went 14-3 in the regular season. The Los Angeles Rams were 12-5 and might be the best team out of the four. Nobody snuck into the NFL’s final four this season. This a good group of teams for what is annually one of the best weekends of football on the calendar.
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Here are the picks for the NFL’s conference championship games, with odds from BetMGM:
Broncos (+5) over Patriots
No matter which side you’re on, and what you think of Jarrett Stidham as he takes over for an injured Bo Nix, everyone should agree that this point spread is an overreaction.
Jarrett Stidham’s fifth career start will come in the AFC championship game. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
(Tim Warner via Getty Images)
Before the season, when Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes polled 12 oddsmakers to determine the difference in the point spread between each team’s starter and backup, the average for Nix to Stidham was 3.85 points. Last week, when some books posted lookahead lines to potential conference championship matchups, the Broncos were a 1.5-point favorite over the Patriots. This line has shifted 6.5 points from that lookahead line after the Nix injury. Nothing has changed other than the quarterbacks, and we already knew that switch should be worth less than four points.
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Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in the past two regular seasons, but the Broncos obviously like him. He was a priority signing for Denver in 2023 during its first offseason with Sean Payton. He got $10 million over two years, which isn’t bad money for a backup. In 2025, when he was a free agent again, he got $12 million over two seasons. Denver likes Stidham, he just hasn’t had to play. In Stidham’s first NFL start, as a member of the Raiders at the end of the 2022 season, he threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against a 49ers defense that made an NFC championship game. In Stidham’s last regular-season start at the end of the 2023 season, he had a respectable 272 yards and a touchdown. This past preseason Stidham was 30 of 38 for 376 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. This isn’t the preseason, and he won’t be facing defensive players about to get cut, but Stidham isn’t a zero. The Broncos also aren’t a quarterback-centric team. They got here by winning with defense and Sean Payton managing close games late, with Nix making a few plays when needed. Nix hasn’t been bad this season, but it’s also not the Chiefs trying to replace Patrick Mahomes.
The Patriots are a good team but have also caught breaks, particularly with their oft-mentioned soft schedule. Playoff wins against the Chargers and Texans were impressive. Drake Maye is already one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, and the defense has gotten even better in the playoffs. New England could blow out a Denver team, especially if Stidham looks rusty after not throwing a pass in either of the past two regular seasons. But this might not be the easy out that some seem to believe it will be.
Rams (+2.5) over Seahawks
It’s fairly rare for an NFL favorite to win and not cover the spread, especially with a small spread. However, that happened in both Rams-Seahawks meetings this regular season. In the first meeting the Rams won 21-19 as a 3-point favorite. In the rematch, the Seahawks had an amazing comeback and won 38-37 as a 1.5-point favorite.
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It seems likely we get another close game to close the trilogy.
Another oddity from the two regular-season meetings is that the losing team completely out-gained the winning team both times. In the Seahawks’ loss, they had 414 yards compared to only 249 for the Rams. In the Rams’ loss, they had 581 yards and Seattle had 415. The Rams blew that game, but the Seahawks should feel like they would have won the first meeting if Sam Darnold threw only two or three interceptions instead of four.
It’s a great matchup and almost impossible to pick one team over the other. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula has had Sam Darnold’s number for most of the last three meetings, but Darnold ended up making many plays to lead Seattle to an overtime win in Week 16. Darnold also has an oblique injury that has been largely forgotten about. Darnold had to throw only 17 times in a blowout win last week over the 49ers, so we don’t know if he’s fully healthy. That’s in the Rams’ favor. But Seattle is the team with much more rest over the last two weeks, with a bye and an easy divisional round win. Both of the Rams’ wins the last two weeks came down to the end. Seattle also has a great home-field advantage at Lumen Field, which is one of the loudest outdoor venues in sports. There are good arguments to side for either team.
If we’re taking a side in a difficult game to pick, it seems wise to take the points. We might even get a third instance of a team winning but not covering a small spread.
Last week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-5
Season to date: 139-136-7
