Reid’s updated NFL draft QB Hot Board: Strengths and weaknesses for the top 12 passers

Reid's updated NFL draft QB Hot Board: Strengths and weaknesses for the top 12 passers

The 2026 NFL draft is rapidly approaching, as it kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh. So let’s re-rank the quarterback class. Who are the best passers on the board?

Six QBs who were on the initial Hot Board are no longer here, but we did add four new names. The NFL’s early-entry declaration deadline has passed, though we’re still waiting to hear what will happen with Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ eligibility status, so the class could still change. And with all-star events, the combine and pro days ahead of us, these rankings are far from final.

Let’s get to it and rank the 12 best QBs in the 2026 class as of now.

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Day 2 picks | Day 3 picks

Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 225 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Round 1

Where he excels: There always seems to be a quarterback who quickly surges from Day 2-3 consideration before the season into early Round 1 (see Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward). Mendoza fills that role in this class. He transferred to Indiana in the offseason after spending his first three seasons at Cal. There was plenty of buzz from scouts about Mendoza this past summer, but many wanted to take a wait-and-see approach prior to the season. He delivered, finishing with 3,535 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and only six interceptions to win the Heisman Trophy and lead the Hoosiers to their first national championship.

Attaching isolated or singular routes behind run-game concepts has been beneficial for Mendoza, who is comfortable with reads that put single defenders in conflict. He has a fiery, three-quarters throwing release, making Mendoza’s mechanics and the Hoosiers’ passing game an ideal marriage. His 79.2% adjusted completion percentage ranked second in the country. He was also phenomenal in the red zone this season, with his 27 touchdowns (without an interception) being the most in the FBS, three ahead of Duke’s Darian Mensah.

at Oregon, pieced together an 80-yard, game-winning drive at Penn State, and overcame Ohio State in a physical Big Ten championship game in which he was temporarily knocked out of the game early. He capped everything off with a gutty touchdown run for the game-winning points in the College Football National Championship game against Miami. It’s as good of a rĆ©sumĆ© that a quarterback prospect can have from an adversity and toughness standpoint. That’s why Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite to be picked by the Las Vegas Raiders with the No. 1 overall pick.

Where he needs work: While Mendoza is comfortable within the confines of the pocket, he struggles when forced off his original launch point. When required to move, Mendoza had a 53.2% completion percentage this season. Many of his inaccurate throws this season came when moved off his original launch point, flushed outside the pocket or forced into scramble situations. When facing true pressure, his completion percentage dropped to 50%.

Mendoza has separated himself as the top passer in this year’s class, but one thing at the next level which will be relatively new is operating from under center. He played out of the shotgun almost exclusively this season, taking only 3% of his snaps under center. Working under center is important in the NFL, as it keeps defenses honest and helps further the influence of play-action on defenders, so Mendoza will have to work on those mechanics.


Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 208 pounds
Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Late Round 1-Early Day 2

Where he excels: After a disappointing performance in Week 1 against Florida State, Simpson had a hot streak during the middle of his first season as a starter. During an eight-game stretch that included four top-16 ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee), Simpson threw for 1,954 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and only one interception while completing 71.9% of his passes. Simpson showed that he’s a calm passer with slightly above average arm strength and that there isn’t much that fazes him in the pocket.

There isn’t a throw that Simpson feels that he’s incapable of making, as his toughness and confidence have shined in spurts this season. The son of longtime UT-Martin head coach Jason Simpson, Ty’s football smarts and awareness are easy to see. Simpson was given a lot of pre-snap autonomy and was frequently seen altering protections and plays. His recognition of defenses is well beyond a typical QB prospect with 15 career starts.

Simpson’s pocket maneuverability is among the best of any passer in this year’s class. He is also an underrated athlete who can make things happen outside of structure. Of his 30 total touchdowns this season (28 passing, two rushing), seven came when Simpson was outside of the pocket. He’s savvy with recognizing and adjusting to pre-snap looks.

Ā«I wouldn’t draft him until Day 2, but I think he has a chance to go in that 20-32 range,Ā» an AFC area scout said. Ā«It’s because the demand will highly outweigh the quality of supply in this year’s class.Ā»

Where he needs work: Simpson sometimes doesn’t recognize when a play is over. He tends to hold the ball longer than necessary and run around in circles in the pocket while trying to extend plays that are clearly busted. Therefore, he loses yardage with negative plays that could have been avoided by checking down, running or tossing the ball out of bounds.

Simpson’s accuracy suffered down the stretch, resulting in an 11.2% off-target percentage that ranked 63rd in the FBS. And downfield passing is another area that scouts have repeatedly brought up as an area of concern, as Simpson completed only 37.3% of his passes of 20 or more air yards in 2025.

And despite his background, Simpson’s lack of starts is a concern. Many scouts remain cautious due to that small sample size.

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Why Mel Kiper Jr. has some concern about Ty Simpson

Mel Kiper Jr. examines whether Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is a first-round pick after he declared for the draft.


Height: 6-foot | Weight: 200 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Late Day 2

Where he excels: There might not be a better story in college football than Chambliss. After spending four seasons at Division II Ferris State, he transitioned to the SEC. Chambliss started the season backing up Austin Simmons but grabbed the starting job against Arkansas in the third game of the season. Chambliss didn’t look back, helping lead the Rebels to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. He ended the season with 3,937 passing yards and 22 touchdowns to only three interceptions. He passed for more than 300 yards in eight of his 13 starts and showed electric playmaking ability.

He’s a decisive, accurate thrower inside the pocket with a sudden release that allows his passes to come out in a hurry. Chambliss has the arm strength to attack all three levels of the field, while his mobility keeps defenses off-balance and honest. He is a quick-footed signal-caller who can create opportunities outside of structure and is a good thrower on the move. With 527 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, he’s a reliable extension of the QB design run game. With an undersized but compact frame, Chambliss smartly avoids contact, routinely sliding in the open field prior to being exposed to defenders.

Where he needs work: Considering that 2025 was his first and only season at the Division I level, there’s still a lot of projection. There were moments when he attempted plays that worked in Division II but were a struggle against SEC competition. Chambliss also tended to pass up safe, easy underneath options in the hunt for a big gain. Understanding that he doesn’t have to go for explosive plays every time is the next step in his development.

The Ole Miss passing scheme doesn’t translate well to the NFL, with half-field reads and free-access throws making up a bulk of the Rebels’ passing concepts. Chambliss will have to be able to get through progressions that involve multiple steps and eliminate early options based on coverages at the next level. He must show more comfort with those types of reads.

The X factor: Chambliss is currently seeking an injunction to allow for a sixth year of eligibility. His waiver petitioning for that extra year has already been denied by the NCAA, and he has filed a suit in Mississippi in an attempt to play for the Rebels in 2026. We will consider him part of the 2026 class until the situation is resolved.


Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Late Day 2-Early Day 3

Where he excels: Nussmeier entered the season with heightened expectations after a promising first year as starter. He showed flashes in 2024, throwing for 4,052 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. That had many evaluators believing that he had the potential to rise to the top of the 2026 QB class. But things didn’t work out that way, as Nussmeier took a clear step back, with 1,927 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine games. He battled multiple injuries in 2025, including patellar tendinitis in his knee.

Nussmeier primarily operates from the pocket and plays with fearless anticipation. He throws accurately to spots in the intermediate game while showing an excellent gauge on route depth and where his receivers will finish on passing concepts. Nussmeier has a flexible arm, allowing him to easily alter his arm slots and ball trajectories to fit passes into spots. He navigates the pocket well, is aware of outlets and gets the ball out of his hand quickly.

entering the transfer portal after a disappointing final season at Georgia. But Beck started to revive his draft stock at Miami. A rhythmic passer who is at his best when allowed to play on-beat, he finished with 3,813 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions this season.

Beck was helped by a more consistent and improved receiving structure around him and looked more like what he showed in 2023 versus 2024. He is a balanced pocket passer who wants to methodically dissect and deliver against defenses. His game is centered around accuracy and decisiveness, so he wastes little time getting the ball out and remains synchronized with progressions. His 74.8% adjusted completion percentage this season was the eighth-highest mark among all FBS passers.

Even though his season ended on a disappointing note with a game-ending interception against Indiana in the National Championship game, the chemistry between Miami’s protection, playmakers and Beck formed the perfect marriage. Because of that, many scouts view Beck as a middle round option.

Where he needs work: Teams that have been able to consistently generate early pressure against Beck have been able to knock him off his game. Beck’s off-target percentage when his feet are planted (9.7%) this season was significantly different than when he’s forced to move (21.4%) from his original launch point.

Beck needs to be drafted by a team where he’s the final piece of the puzzle rather than one that lacks surrounding playmakers; he’s more reliant on good infrastructure than most QBs. The Miami offensive line was key, as Beck’s 17.1% pressure rate faced was the lowest in the FBS. He got an average of 2.9 seconds to throw the ball. Beck was able to play within the confines of the offense while not being forced to make plays outside of the scheme. But can he hold up when conditions are less ideal?


Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 235 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 2-Early Day 3

Where he excels: Allar has prototypical size and arm strength. He also has plenty of experience, having started 35 games and played in 45 overall. He made a noticeable leap from his sophomore to junior season, increasing his completion percentage from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% in 2024. Upon announcing his return to school, Allar was immediately expected to be one of the best QBs in this class.

That didn’t happen. A disappointing loss at home against Oregon in double overtime in which Allar threw the game-ending interception was followed by losses to UCLA and Northwestern. He suffered a broken left ankle in the Northwestern game and was sidelined for the season. Prior to the injury, Allar had 1,100 passing yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions.

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He’s an above-average intermediate passer who isn’t afraid to test tight windows and can accurately hit routes in between the numbers. He exhausts progressions and delivers to targets, and he has more than enough arm strength to succeed at the next level. He also has the mobility to navigate the pocket and gain yardage that’s available.

Where he needs work: Allar’s accuracy regressed, as his 12.5% off-target percentage ranked 94th in the FBS, and Allar has moments where he puts the ball too high or low. He tends to make receivers work harder than they should to secure catches.

Ā«The biggest issue is that he looks good against the low- and middle-tier teams, but he just hasn’t had that signature performance any time that he plays against the elite ones,Ā» an AFC assistant general manager said.

In a traits-based league, I believe that there will be a team that convinces itself to draft Allar early because of his physical attributes and a belief it can reconstruct his lower half to improve his ball placement. Allar will need to be in a true under-center, dropback offense that attacks the intermediate and deeper portions of the field.


Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 224 pounds
Class: Fifth-year senior | Projected range: Early Day 3

Where he excels: Green immediately became the Razorbacks’ starter after transferring from Boise State following the 2023 season. He had 2,714 passing yards, 19 touchdown throws and 11 interceptions this season, along with 771 rushing yards (12th most among FBS QBs) and two touchdowns on the ground. He had eight games with 50 or more rushing yards. Green’s long stride puts teams in a bind when he runs. Green also has the arm talent to get the ball to the spots he wants with his elongated over-the-top release.

He has shown the ability to make explosive plays with both his arm (14 completions of 20-plus air yards) and his legs. He will likely be a popular middle-round target for teams looking to develop a toolsy passer with upside.

Where he needs work: Green’s warts were noticeable as the season went on, most notably the time he takes to pass the ball. His 3.13-second average time to throw ranked 134th out of 138 quarterbacks in the FBS, and his indecisiveness in the short-to-intermediate areas was a big reason.

Green has also struggled facing pressure. All 27 times he was sacked this season came against true pressure, and he completed only 38.6% of his passes in those situations.


Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 210 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Early-Mid Day 3

Where he excels: With four starters returning along the Tigers’ offensive line and his top three wide receivers back for another season, I thought Klubnik had the best supporting cast in the country and had a prime opportunity to build off a breakout 2024. That’s part of why I had him as the No. 1 pick in my way-too-early mock draft in May. But Klubnik finished with 2,943 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s most comfortable operating off play-action, as he had 10 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 72.7% completion percentage.

Klubnik has stretches of hot and cold play throughout games, similar to a streaky 3-point shooter. His clean throwing release allowed him to distribute the ball evenly to all his targets in the underneath areas the Tigers operated in. Klubnik is also a threat as a runner when forced to break the pocket.

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Where he needs work: Klubnik has a lot of borderline-average traits but doesn’t have one superior trait. Outside of his Week 6 performance against North Carolina (22-of-24, 254 yards and 4 TDs), Klubnik hesitated throwing the ball on time, too. I saw him up close against LSU in the season opener and noticed that he had timing troubles when reading concepts. His anticipation skills have been lacking, and he defaulted to waiting for teammates to get open before throwing.

His mechanics tend to wane when facing pressure, and his accuracy becomes scattershot. Klubnik completed only 48.5% of his passes when facing true pressure. There were mixed opinions of Klubnik entering the season, but thoughts of him being a middle-to-late round passer have become more of a consensus. Klubnik will be participating in the Shrine Bowl, and the week of practices and meetings with NFL teams will be pivotal to his draft stock.


Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 220 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Mid Day 3

Where he excels: Robertson has an effective throwing motion, which helped him distribute the ball in Baylor’s spread-and-shred offense. After transferring from Mississippi State, he took the reins of the QB1 spot early in the 2024 season and orchestrated one of the more explosive units in the country the past two seasons.

Robertson finished his college career with back-to-back 3,000-yard passing seasons, with 3,681 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2025. He’s always looking to attack vertically, as his 26 completions of 20-plus air yards were the 12th most in the FBS. Robertson is a quick, decisive decision-maker who gets the ball out in a hurry. He knows where his options are in passing concepts and shows a willingness to throw the ball to any accessible receiver, no matter where he is on the field.

Where he needs work: Robertson’s accuracy and pocket feel can waver when defenses speed him up and his base isn’t set. His 12 interceptions this season were tied for fifth most among FBS QBs, and Robertson had three games where he threw at least two interceptions. His decision-making would waver in the fourth quarter, when he threw six interceptions. Underthrown passes and misreading underneath coverages were the two major culprits in his turnovers and missed opportunities.


10. Cole Payton, North Dakota State

Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 233 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Mid Day 3

Where he excels: Payton continues the long-running tradition of decorated North Dakota State passers. After missing the final eight games of the 2024 season with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, he bounced back in 2025, finishing with 3,188 passing yards, 29 total TDs (16 passing, 13 rushing), and four interceptions.

Payton is a strong dual-threat option with a frame that allows him to make difficult throws from the pocket and showcase his ability as a runner. He is tough in the pocket and able to withstand big hits from defenders while still throwing accurately. Payton is an excellent downfield passer, as his strong base, touch and feel help him deliver drop-in-the-bucket passes. Designed QB runs and short-yardage situations are successful with him because of his vision and willingness to fight through and shrug off would-be tacklers.

There are teams that have him as an athlete on their board, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if Payton experiments at other positions during the predraft process, starting with the Senior Bowl.

«He was finally healthy this year prior to that game in the playoffs and I actually liked his film quite a bit,» an AFC scout assigned to the Midwest said. «We thought he was more of a Taysom Hill-type with the ability to do more than just pass it around.»

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Cole Payton throws 78-yard touchdown pass vs. Illinois State

Cole Payton connects for 78-yard TD pass

Where he needs work: Payton has a full-circle throwing motion that includes loopy mechanics. He must become less reliant on his upper body to generate power in his throws, as his lower body stiffness is most notable when throwing passes to his left side. Progressing to secondary options and overall pocket awareness are other things that he needs to improve. He also has a habit of locking on to first reads and being unaware of underneath targets. And finally, Payton also needs to use his mobility more by taking off to run when plays break down or when early options aren’t available.

Payton suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand during the team’s second-round loss in the FCS playoffs. He is expected to be healed in time for practices in Mobile, but it is an injury to monitor.


Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 205 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3-UDFA

Where he excels: After transferring to Illinois from Ole Miss in 2023, Altmyer became the starter in his first year with the program. He improved every season, finishing 2025 with 3,007 passing yards and 22 touchdowns to five interceptions. Altmyer is a true point guard who gets the ball out in a hurry, spreads it around and is a swift processor of opposing defenses. He does a great job identifying breakdowns or holes in defenses, and his 8.0% off-target percentage was the eighth lowest in the FBS.

Illinois’ offense runs a mixture of light and heavy personnel sets, so Altmyer has gained experience with a variety of pre-snap positionings. He can play from under center or in the shotgun, operates well off play-action and can read out levels concepts. He can also run when opportunities present themselves, showing the escapability and quickness to outrace first- and second-level defenders.

Where he needs work: Altmyer’s confidence can be a gift and a curse, as he’ll bypass safer options in hopes of hunting for flashy plays. That daredevil mentality can prompt him to force throws into tight windows.

The Senior Bowl will give Altmyer a chance to separate himself from the rest of the late-round crop of quarterbacks. Many evaluators I spoke to this season mentioned him as one of their top candidates to be a late-round dart throw who could become a decade-plus backup quarterback in the NFL.


Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 225 pounds
Class: Seventh-year senior | Projected range: Late Day 3-UDFA

Where he excels: A rare seventh-year senior, Fagnano spent four seasons at Maine (2019-22) before transferring to UConn prior to the 2023 season. He experienced a breakout in 2025, finishing with 3,448 passing yards and 28 touchdowns to only one interception — a tipped pass against Air Force. Fagnano is a mechanically sound passer whose eyes, feet and throwing motion are routinely in sync. Fagnano shows comfort with scanning through full-field reads. He understands his limitations and opts to make the right throw. He also gets the ball out quick — his 2.56-second average time before pass ranked among the top 25 in the FBS.

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Fagnano rose to the occasion against bigger opponents, going 2-1 against ACC opponents, including a victory over ACC champion Duke. His 14 go-ahead passing touchdowns led the FBS. Fagnano will be participating in the Shrine Bowl, which will be an opportunity for him to continue to prove his worth as a late-round possibility or priority undrafted free agent.

Where he needs work: Fagnano, who will turn 25 prior to the draft, played in an offense predicated on quick completions, as 28.8% of his attempts this season were at or behind the line of scrimmage (38th most in the FBS). Fagnano has limited arm strength and won’t wow scouts with his passing velocity. His game is more dependent on taking the safe throw than testing defenses in tighter windows.

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