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Bradford Doolittle
Who is about to get a whole lot better in MLB?
Every year around this time, we take a stab at identifying which teams might break out in the coming season. Two years ago, I tackled it with an algorithm. Last year, I went with a more player-centric approach. The conclusion: It’s not easy predicting which teams are about to break out.
First, what even is a breakout team? Let’s define it like this: A breakout team is a club that wins at least 10 more games than what would be expected by its established level of play.
To define the latter, we won’t get fancy: We’ll use wins per 162 games for the previous two seasons, while giving double weight to the most recent season. Entering last season, the highest baseline win level was — you get one guess — the Los Angeles Dodgers, at 98.7. The lowest was the Chicago White Sox at 47.7.
Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.
Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship.
The total of three breakout teams in 2025 was lower than usual. By these definitions, there has been an average of 5.1 breakout teams per season during the wild-card era (since 1995). The yearly totals range from just two (in 2010) to nine (2023), not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
There it is: In a typical season we can expect to have five breakout teams. The trick is to figure out who they will be. So, using some recent examples, let’s figure out why some of those teams broke out, and try to match them with the profiles of five teams looking to pop in 2026.
I’ve also included the percentage chances of these teams meeting our breakout criteria, based on how often they did so during my most recent run of simulations. Bear in mind that these five teams were selected with a combination of subjective and objective criteria, so they are not necessarily the clubs with the five highest breakout probabilities.
Breakout key: Getting healthier
Model: 2022 Diamondbacks
Baseline wins: 80
Breakout target: 90
Breakout probability: 59%
The 2021 Diamondbacks bottomed out at 110 losses, a depth the Braves didn’t approach during their injury-fueled collapse of last season. But like Atlanta, that Arizona club was beset by injuries. The starting rotation didn’t feature a single hurler who qualified for the ERA title, as each of Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver spent at least one stretch on the injured list. The Diamondbacks had injuries all over — both Ketel Marte and Christian Walker missed time among the batsmen — but the bulk of the impact came on the pitching side, as Arizona allowed 5.51 runs per game. The D-backs shaved nearly a run per game off that total in 2022, won 22 more games and by 2023 found themselves in the World Series.
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That Arizona club could be a model for the Braves in more than one way. Like the Diamondbacks, Atlanta has actually «collapsed» two years in a row, if we define collapses as the opposite version of our breakouts, or a 10-game decline. The Diamondbacks followed their two collapses with two straight breakouts and that aforementioned pennant. The Braves, who suffered an Arizona-like dip in run prevention while slipping from 89 to 76 wins, hope to do the same. The Braves finished 19 games under their preseason over/under line in the betting markets, the largest shortfall in the majors.
Injuries were the primary culprit, though there were certainly some underperformances as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missed time, as they did in 2024, and when they played they were still working their way back into form. Getting those stars and others, such as Austin Riley and Matt Olson, back to full capacity and/or productivity is the Braves’ best hope for a quick bounce-back. The projections think they have a good chance of getting that. My simulations have the Braves winning 11 more games than their baseline win estimate of 80. In other words, their average projection qualifies them as a breakout team, the only team for which that is the case.
However, better health can’t be assumed. As if the Braves needed a reminder of that after the past two seasons, they already are dealing with a hand injury to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim that is expected to keep him out well into the regular season.
Breakout key: Plain old regression
Model: 2001 Astros
Baseline wins: 80
Breakout target: 90
Breakout probability: 35%
I badly wanted to use the 1919 White Sox here, as Chicago went from 101.8 wins per 162 games in 1917, dropped to 74.5 in 1918, then rebounded to 103.8 in its infamous 1919 season. But too much of that 1918 collapse was due to players such as Shoeless Joe Jackson being drawn into World War I-related service. A defensible collapse indeed.
A much more contemporary example is the 2001 Astros. The three-year winning progression for those Houston teams: 97 in 1999, 72 in 2000, then a regression all the way back to 93 in 2001. The collapse in the middle was pitching related, as Houston’s staff ERA ballooned from 3.84 in 1999 to 5.42 the next year. Mike Hampton departed via free agency after a 22-4 1999 season, and Jose Lima, Shane Reynolds and Scott Elarton fell off in performance.
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In 2001, however, Wade Miller broke out after an up-and-down rookie season, Reynolds regressed in a positive direction and Roy Oswalt arrived as one of that season’s standout rookies. The staff ERA improved to 4.39, and Houston was back in the playoffs.
Last year, the Orioles were the AL’s version of the Braves. Although Baltimore didn’t fall as far short of its preseason over/under as the Braves did, its 19-game shortfall compared with its win baseline (94) was the game’s biggest. The collapse was present on both sides of the ball. The Orioles declined from 4.9 runs scored per game in 2024 to 4.2; their runs allowed increased from 4.3 to 4.9.
The current Orioles are winning an average of 85.2 games in my simulations, a healthy bounce-back that still leaves Baltimore well short of where it was in 2024. Signing another pitcher (Framber Valdez) would help. But even without more impact additions, the Orioles should almost certainly be better. Health is one key factor, as with Atlanta. According to Baseball Prospectus’ injury data, only Houston had more player value lost to injury a year ago than the Orioles.
But the Orioles need their key hitters to regress in the right direction as well. Gunnar Henderson was once again outstanding, just not as much as in 2024, going from a 155 OPS+ to 121. His career mark is now 135, and just hitting that would be a huge boon for the Orioles. In the same vein, Adley Rutschman’s production dipped, but his case is more troubling. His OPS+ progression during his four big league seasons is 131, 128, 105, 90. If he can break that trend and hit his career mark (115), the Orioles will be thrilled.
Luckily, the Orioles haven’t stood pat and pinned all their hopes on better health, positive regression and continued development for key young players such as Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers. They also went out and added some impact veterans, including a new closer (Ryan Helsley) and a new cleanup hitter (Pete Alonso).
But they still need to add another pitcher.
Breakout key: Targeted spending
Model: 2024 Royals
Baseline wins: 73
Breakout target: 83
Breakout probability: 29%
The 2023 Royals won 56 games. The 2024 Royals won 86 and made the playoffs. Sure, having a generational star like Bobby Witt Jr. coming into his own played a key role in that. But as has been written many times since that shocking turnaround, the biggest factor was that the Royals tried.
It seems like such a low bar, yet so many teams don’t seem to clear it, at least when it comes to accessing the talent pool of each winter’s free agent class. The Royals were such a team, then between the 2023 and 2024 seasons, they focused on upgrading their starting rotation, zeroed in on free agents Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, and convinced them to move to Kansas City. They’re still there, and the Royals’ rotation is still their non-Witt team strength.
For Pittsburgh, the rotation was already the strength, and the Pirates have demonstrated a knack for identifying and developing quality relievers. This was true before last season, when it seemed so clear that a modest, targeted investment in the team’s offense could pay outsized dividends. We weren’t talking about going after Juan Soto, just someone to lift the offense in the direction of league average.
Last winter, it didn’t happen. The Pirates picked up Spencer Horwitz in a trade but didn’t sign a single free agent hitter to a multiyear contract. This winter they did — Ryan O’Hearn — and supplemented that with Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Jhostynxon Garcia as trade acquisitions. Do the Pirates have a Royalesque 30-game leap in them? Doubtful. But half that gets them into the wild-card conversation.
Breakout key: Prospect ascension
Model: 2022 Orioles
Baseline wins: 61
Breakout target: 71
Breakout probability: 12%
Maybe I’m jumping the gun a bit on the White Sox, whose definition for «breakout» remains «less bad.» But you can sense the team is starting to take shape, and although last year’s 19-win leap will be hard to replicate, it’s just as unlikely that the White Sox will take a step backward. There are too many young players who have a little big league time under their belts now, and Chicago hasn’t even started to gently add right-now major leaguers. I wouldn’t expect this season to be the breakout for this team, as in a return to playoff contention. More likely it’s a soft breakout, in the mold of the 2022 Orioles.
Few teams have tanked with the wanton depravity of the 2018 to 2021 Orioles. And the end of that miserable stretch didn’t really offer much of a glimpse of what was taking shape in Baltimore’s highly ranked minor league system. Then, in 2022, Rutschman, Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Kyle Bradish and Felix Bautista began to establish themselves. Baltimore’s fortunes turned quickly, as it followed a 52-win season with 83 victories in 2022. There was more work to do, but the Orioles’ contention window had opened.
The White Sox are similar in several key ways. They’ve dropped more than 100 games three years running, so by Baltimore’s standard we might expect another year of that. But Chicago has already pushed a number of its key building-block players to the majors, and more are on the way. I don’t know that the White Sox can leap over .500 like those Orioles did, but if there is a club from baseball’s bottom rung most likely to do it, it’s Chicago.
Breakout key: A new catalyst
Model: 2018 Red Sox
Baseline wins: 89
Breakout target: 99
Breakout probability: 10%
The Cubs improved by nine games last season, reaching 92 wins — their high-water mark since the Kris Bryant-Anthony Rizzo teams were broken up — and returned to the postseason. With three straight winning campaigns behind them, the Cubs’ baseline is already in division-contention territory, making their breakout bar a high one. But if they clear it, we’re talking about a leading World Series candidate — and a threat to the Dodgers.
OK, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. But the Cubs have continued to upgrade their roster even after last season’s gains. Edward Cabrera — if healthy — could prove to be one of the winter’s biggest additions. Chicago raised the floor of its bullpen with a number of veterans such as Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Jacob Webb and Hoby Milner.
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But of course the headliner move was the signing of Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million deal to become a catalyst for the Cubs, on and off the field. Bregman will be with his third team in three seasons after two straight offseasons in free agency, but he’ll be bidding to take part in the postseason for a 10th straight time. That Bregman has been a key part of so many good teams is no coincidence.
As for the model here, those 2018 Red Sox, the catalyst I have in mind is J.D. Martinez. The 2017 Red Sox won 93 games but lacked a true middle-of-the-order anchor. Their primary DH was Hanley Ramirez, who slugged .429. Then Martinez arrived, hit .330/.402/.629 and led the league with 130 RBIs. With Martinez’s technician-like approach to hitting and preparation serving as an example, Boston jumped from sixth in runs scored in 2017 to first, then went on to win the World Series.
It’s highly unlikely that Bregman will have the same kind of statistical impact with the Cubs. He’s ostensibly replacing Kyle Tucker in the lineup, and Tucker is both younger and more productive at the plate. Still, Bregman improves the team on both offense and defense from where it was before he signed, and he improved the depth by pushing promising second-year player Matt Shaw into a utility role. But his overall impact could be similar to what Martinez did for those 2018 Red Sox.
If that happens, look out.
