Lessons from Man United’s victory at Arsenal; Real Madrid win ugly; more

What a weekend! Europe’s top five leagues had a number of big games, and they delivered plenty to talk about. How about Manchester United, shocking Premier League leaders Arsenal and winning 3-2 at the Emirates to open the door for the chasing pack in the title race? (And what a start for Michael Carrick as United’s stand-in boss, with wins over Man City and the Gunners in his first two games at the helm…)

In LaLiga, Real Madrid swapped flair for pragmatism to get a big win on the road against a strong Villarreal side, and Juventus showed their class in Serie A with a big victory over struggling Napoli that puts them back in touch with the top four. Plus there was more panic for Liverpool, as they lost at Bournemouth with a last-gasp goal that bumped them out of the top four.

Elsewhere, we got talking points galore from Bayern Munich (who lost another game), Chelsea (who keep winning, this time thanks to Estevao), Barcelona (who won, but really miss Pedri), Atletico Madrid (what’s happened to Julián Álvarez?), Milan (who snuck a victory over Roma), Tottenham (is Thomas Frank on the brink?) and much, much more.

It’s Monday morning, so what better time for some musings? Let’s get into it.

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– Ogden: Is the Premier League title race wide open again?
– VAR Review: Breaking down PL’s biggest calls of the weekend
– Lindop: Liverpool’s inconsistencies continue to hold them back

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At this stage, it’s about selling for Arsenal and Man United

As in selling ideas, which is what coaches, leaders and bosses do all the time anyway: they get buy-in from the folks they look after. And the message from Gunners boss Mikel Arteta and his opposite number Michael Carrick ought to be the same after the 3-2 United win at the Emirates: Keep doing what you’re doing.

From United’s perspective, it’s evident there’s a feel-good factor and a lightness to the side after Ruben Amorim’s departure. How much of that is just a «new boss» effect and how much is value-add from Carrick is hard to judge, but clearly, maintaining this working environment matters going forward. Probably more than what happens on the pitch, in fact, because this setup — with Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko, £130-odd million of recently arrived strikers, on the bench — is not a long-term option that makes sense. Nor is three shots on target and a cumulative xG of 0.71 something to write home about. Even if you’re not a numbers person, the fact that two goals were low-probability wonder strikes and the other was a gift from Martín Zubimendi should remind you how long the road back is football-wise.

And that’s OK. Carrick has had two games, and he’s not the permanent coach anyway. Results matter because finishing in the Champions League spots matters (a lot). But in terms of the future, what you’re looking for is a drama-free environment where players are happy and productive, where they can perform and where — crucially — the club can evaluate them and better understand where and if they fit in under whoever leads them next season (which, of course, is TBD). And that’s exactly what Carrick is offering right now, which, frankly, is a lot.

Across the way, the worst thing Arteta could do is ratchet up the second-guessing. Recognize the facts: a home defeat, Man City (and Villa) four points back, an uninspired attacking performance. But you can’t change the first two facts; all you can do is use them to learn how to affect the third fact.

If you do, you might realize, there’s not much you can tweak here and even less that you should tweak. Yes, it would be great if Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka were spraying passes, scoring goals and dishing out assists at the level they were at before. They’re on pace for a combined 18 goal involvements (goals+assists) this season. Compare it to 2024-25 (27), 2023-24 (43) or 2022-23 (47), and it’s an evident design. But the counter to that is Arsenal are playing a different brand of football this year and they’re in first place, which they weren’t in past seasons.

There’s a yin to the yang there. Arsenal’s defensive solidity has been critical to their success this year. So have Arteta’s attacking rotations, which should yield even more benefits later in the season. Fiddle with those to get your best players (and, yes, those two — along with Declan Rice — are Arsenal’s best players) better numbers, and you risk losing what got you where you are.

There’s also a Viktor Gyökeres issue and, no, it’s not that stat you’ve probably been reading about how Premier League winners usually have double-digit goal scorers up front and the big Swede is on pace to end up with just eight. That part is not important as long as the team as a whole are scoring, which Arsenal are. It’s more the fact that he’s adapting to a new league and getting a totally different sort of service that he was getting at Sporting last year. It takes time to adjust, and I say this as someone who is not a Gyokeres guy at all. (Regular readers will know I’m «Team Havertz» all the way.)

Arteta talked after the match about how it’s a game of small margins and how Arsenal’s performance «made them even smaller.» Against United, that’s pretty much what happened, and they paid the price. But it’s not a reason for him to go in another direction midseason.

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Real Madrid go blue collar to get it done

As always, you need to separate the result from the performance. The former was, well, huge. It’s a big 2-0 road win against a side that were threatening to be a direct opponent. Had this gone the other way, Villarreal would have been four points back with a game in hand and whatever goodwill was generated in the 6-1 Champions League drubbing of Monaco would have evaporated. Villagers with pitchforks and torches would be gathering outside the Bernabéu. But it didn’t, and the upshot is Alvaro Arbeloa & Co. are one point out of first place in LaLiga. And that matters… until the next setback, anyway.

Performance-wise, the purists might stick up their nose. Both goals came from — who else? — Kylian Mbappé and both were gift-wrapped: Pape Gueye not sorting out his feet for the first one, Alfonso Pedraza mistiming his tackle and giving away the garbage-time penalty for the second. Take those out of the mix, and Real Madrid’s xG is a pedestrian 0.73. And at the other end, Dani Parejo conjured up two clear-cut chances for Gerard Moreno, both squandered.

Maybe so, but there are several reasons to give Madrid a pass on style points. One is that while both played midweek, Villarreal — essentially eliminated long ago from the Champions League — were able to rest nine guys, Madrid were not. Another is that you’re still playing a top three LaLiga side away from home: Not everything will come easy. And, perhaps most importantly, it looked as if they were working far harder — especially off the ball — than in previous games. There was a defensive intensity, led by Jude Bellingham, and a humility that simply wasn’t there in recent outings.

Will it last? Is this an actual blueprint that can take them where they want (need) to be? I don’t know. But it makes for a nice change.

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On the pitch and off, Liverpool are hurting themselves

Amine Adli’s buzzer-beating goal means Liverpool left Bournemouth empty-handed on Saturday after a 3-2 defeat. Combine it with Sunday’s results (wins for Chelsea and Manchester United) and they tumble to sixth in the table, two points ahead of, ahem, Fulham. Conceding a goal like that, after a goal-mouth scramble, with the last kick of the game is going to hurt. But it shouldn’t take away from how you got there, because the simple fact is that Liverpool deserved to lose this game.

Two shots on target from open play is not an acceptable return. Individual mistakes — like Virgil van Dijk’s, which led to Evanilson’s opener — can happen. Collective brain farts — like playing for seven minutes a man down because they couldn’t put the ball out of play, which would have allowed Wataru Endo to come on for the injured Joe Gomez — cannot happen. Not at this level.

There are issues up front and issues at the back and Slot’s solution — packing more and more midfielders into the team — is not a long-term option. The 4-2-2-2 formation can work as something more than a way of shoe-horning Mohamed Salah into the side — so much for the knee-jerk brigade who assured us he was definitely off to Saudi Arabia, eh? — but it has to be worked on. Otherwise you get what we had for stretches of the first half: Dominik Szoboszlai, Salah and Jeremie Frimpong all in the same space, getting into each other’s way.

Off the pitch, things need to be sorted too. As I’ve been banging on about all season, they were down a top center back when the window closed (and, presumably, they agreed, since they tried to sign Marc Guéhi). Since then, they lost another center back (Giovanni Leoni) and right back (Conor Bradley) for the rest of the season. They’re three defenders down. And what do they do? Nothing, other than toy with the idea of letting another defender go (Andy Robertson, who was linked with Spurs), though thankfully it looks like he’s staying).

Liverpool’s recruitment guys are too smart not to realize this. Maybe there’s a good reason for the inactivity to date, but they had better do something between now and the end of the transfer window, in five days’ time.

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Juventus’s upward surge continues against depleted Napoli

Sunday’s 3-0 win over Napoli continued to leave folks with egg on their face. People who slammed Jonathan David (who continues to excel), people who thought Manuel Locatelli was just a hacker (some might say that list once include Juve coach Luciano Spalletti himself) and people who didn’t think Spalletti was the right choice as manager (I’m in that category, though still not sold long-term).

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The good news is that Juve go from strength to strength defensively (Bremer’s return helps tremendously), individual players are growing (not just David, but Khéphren Thuram and Weston McKennie too) and Kenan Yildiz once again asserted himself as one of the most exciting young players in Europe. They are one point out of third place, have bought into the Spalletti Therapy and, on the pitch at least, it’s making them healthy again.

That said, you need to grade this on a curve because Napoli are the walking wounded right now. With half a dozen starters out, plus Romelu Lukaku and Sam Beukema only fit enough for the bench, just as Napoli were getting back into the game at 1-0 down, Juan Jesus gifted Juventus a second goal which meant it’s lights out. Throw in the fact that Napoli, understandably, were looking ahead to that decisive Champions League clash with Chelsea in midweek, and you don’t want to get overly carried away.

Still, Juve’s resurgence suggests the issue wasn’t lack of talent pre-Spalletti, it was the wrong coaches in the wrong place.

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Quick hits

10. Ethan Nwaneri lands with a bang in Marseille: Arsenal’s decision to send him on loan was undoubtedly the right one. He’s a huge talent, one they’ve committed to with a contract through 2030, but minutes have been hard to come by this season and he was playing substantially less than last year, which isn’t great at age 18. Where some might have had some reservations was with the destination. On the plus side, you get a progressive, attack-minded coach in Marseille with Roberto De Zerbi; on the minus, you’re joining a volatile club with a ton of fan pressure, which might not be the best place to develop.

De Zerbi obviously had few reservations, chucking him straight into the mix against league-leading Lens at the Velodrome, just a few days after their Champions League humiliation at the hands of Liverpool. Sink or swim. And he soared, scoring a peach of a long-distance goal with confidence and class. The ever-under appreciated Amine Gouiri bagged the other two and Marseille (who initially rested Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Mason Greenwood) rolled to a 3-1 win.

Good news for PSG who had played (and won) on Friday, but from a l’OM perspective, it was confirmation that they got over the Liverpool hangover very quickly.

9. Do not adjust your device, as Aston Villa are really just four points off the top: It was another game that could have gone the other way, but instead broke Aston Villa’s way. In ordinary circumstances, we’d be taking about variance and randomness, but Villa’s 2-0 win away to Newcastle marked the umpteenth time the metrics said the opposition deserved it more and yet came up empty-handed. And that kinda makes me think the metrics just aren’t built to measure what Unai Emery does.

Sure, sniff all you like about how Sandro Tonali was unlucky early on, while Emi Buendia scored on an improbable 0.05 xG screamer. But Emery pulls stuff like this out of his backsides most weeks, and he does it in very tough conditions, against a backdrop of injuries and departures. (I know a Villa fan who insists Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn are their two most important players … OK, both were out at St James’ Park and they didn’t miss a beat.) Other than Emi Martinez, who is a world champion, how many of these guys made a quantum leap forward since they started working with Emery? Probably more than those at any other club, with any other coach. That’s why what he’s doing is so special.

8. Atletico down Mallorca as Julian Alvarez’s drought continues: There was plenty for Diego Simeone to cheer in the 3-0 win over Mallorca. They dealt with Vedat Muriqi well, Pablo Barrios continues to grow, the much-criticized Thiago Almada got on the scoresheet and, of course, the win puts them back into third. Most of all, they’ve metabolized the fact that unlike the glory days of yesteryear, when they’re a goal up they need to continue attacking and, while the other two goals came late, they did just that and looked comfortable doing so.

On the flip side, Alvarez has to be an issue at this point. His last league goal from open play came all the way back in September. Away from home, in all competitions, he has scored twice in 14 appearances and his current drought, in all competitions, extends all the way back to Dec. 9. Diego Simeone, as he should, continues to defend him. At some point though, maybe a break is called for, especially since Atleti have shown they can leave Alexander Sorloth up front on his own have enough wingers and attacking midfielders to keep him well supplied.

7. Estevao shines, but questions linger for Chelsea: It’s now three wins on the spin for Blues manager Liam Rosenior after the 3-1 victory at Crystal Palace and they’re up to fifth place, which is important. We’ve also seen that Estevao is one of the top three or four 18-year-olds in the world. The combination of technical ability, athleticism, maturity and work ethic is uncommon at that age, especially for a guy who moved continents six months ago.

Rosenior was beaming outwardly, but inwardly he’s likely being more cautious. The Palace win needs to be graded on a curve: Oliver Glasner was grumbling, Marc Guehi left for Man City, Jean-Philippe Mateta is seeking a move, and they have injuries everywhere. This was a victory over a wounded opponent. The absence of Cole Palmer, and the fact that on a different day, Moisés Caicedo could have been sent off, are also things to think about. Those are your two best players and you need them on the pitch down the stretch. Still, they’re moving in the right direction, and that’s a lot to be said for a coach who, a month ago, was working at a different club in a different league.

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6. Borussia Dortmund can be grown-ups after all: This was a trap game and given this club’s recent history, you sort of expected Nico Kovac’s crew to fall right into it. Union Berlin away can be a tough nut to crack, especially when sandwiched between a Champions League defeat at Tottenham and the crucial visit of Inter on Tuesday. They weren’t awful Spurs — Daniel Svensson being sent off after 24 minutes affected the game — but it still leaves a hangover. And while they were a goal up at halftime, they had also conceded some huge chances.

At the break you wondered if Kovac’s decision to rest Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi might come back to haunt him. Instead, Dortmund pretty much shut the door (giving up just one shot on target) and added to their total, scoring with Nico Schlotterbeck and Maxi Beier to round out the 3-0 win. It was the sort of performance that builds confidence and confirms them as the Bundesliga’s Best of the Rest.

5. Barcelona can afford to nap half the game vs. Oviedo: There’s a reason Barcelona are top and Oviedo are bottom. And there’s a reason Barça fans know it’s an entirely different team when Pedri — who is currently injured — isn’t out there. Hansi Flick’s side celebrated the return to the Camp Nou Sunday with a communal sleepwalk that covered the entire first half (one shot on target, five overall) and a good chunk of the second too. Nope, don’t let the two goals at the start of the second half fool you either: They were neat finishes from Dani Olmo and (especially) Raphinha, but they would never have happened without some grotesque Oviedo errors in the buildup. (The third? Nah, that was legit and spectacular from Lamine Yamal. Max respect.)

But the point stands. Without Pedri to turn on the light, Barça were in the dark, even against a side that haven’t won a game since September (no joke), relying instead on individual quality and opposition mistakes. It’s hard to play that way and be successful on a regular basis, unless you ratchet up the intensity and force errors. Against Oviedo, they needed to do that only occasionally. Against others, it’s likely to be a different story.

4. Referee blunder shouldn’t obscure the fact that Man City lasted only 45 minutes: The big talking point out of Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Wolves is referee Farai Hallam. He was officiating his first Premier League game, he went to the VAR monitor and did not overturn his on-field call. (Points for showing personality: This almost never happens in the Premier League.) That’s the good news. The bad news is that in the view of many — including yours truly and, more importantly, Pep Guardiola — he should have, because he made a big mistake. Wolves fullback Yerson Mosquera has his arms way out by his side when Omar Marmoush flicks it back, and the ball hits him just above the elbow. Intent doesn’t matter; it’s not a natural position, and it should have been a penalty.

Did it impact the game? Nope. City were a goal up and they scored another before the break; all it meant was they won 2-0 instead of 3-0. More of a concern, I think, ought to be what we saw from them in the second half: just four shots, all off target for an xG of 0.18. Even the introduction of Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Jérémy Doku (all initially rested) didn’t change much. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and they did more than enough to win. It’s just that defending the lead and seeing games out doesn’t feel like this team’s strong suit either.

3. Derby defeat is Bayern’s first in the league in 10 months: Which, obviously, tells you there’s no need to panic or spot a dark trend. In fact, nobody other than Arsenal and, on Saturday, Augsburg have beaten Vincent Kompany’s side this season. Yet this doesn’t mean it’s not a teachable moment.

Bayern took the lead through Hiroki Ito and dominated the first half before falling 2-1, which tells you how important it is to put opponents away when you get the chance. Take Jonathan Tah out of the mix and the other four members of the back five (including keeper Jonas Urbig, who was at fault for the equalizer) had 18 starts between them this season: Chemistry matters. Lennart Karl was sub-par: when you’re 17, you’ll have your ups and downs so let him be a kid, especially now that Jamal Musiala is back. And, finally, it’s a derby and Augsburg are fighting to avoid relegation: Sometimes it’s worth remembering the other team also gets paid and can also lift their game.

2. Minimalist Milan get a draw at Roma, but is this progress? I’d suggest no. But sure, if you just look at the scoreline and the table, you’d conclude that Max Allegri was a genius. Park the bus in the first half, take the sting out of the game and nick a goal on a set piece. They might even have won it had it not been for a somewhat unlucky penalty conceded late on. But hey, a point against a direct opponent on the road, in a week that Napoli also lost, is a really good result. It keeps Roma at bay (four points back) and consolidates second place.

Except that reading is all wrong. It ignores the fact that it’s late-January and, simply put, Milan — who, lest we forget, don’t have European football and therefore should have a built-in fitness advantage — shouldn’t be playing at two miles an hour and attempting a single shot in the first 45 minutes. Especially when that sort of approach doesn’t actually work. Sure, Roma didn’t score until the penalty, but Donyell Malen missed a hat trick of chances and «Magic» Mike Maignan performed a minor miracle on Zeki Çelik. If you want to go all-in, short-term, to win now, fine. But then go for it. The way they’re going, they’re building very little and will be back to square one in the summer. All the Milan talk means less space for Roma, which isn’t fair, but yeah, they were good. And they have a legitimate chance of being back in the Champions League.

1. Thomas Frank will likely pay, but Spurs’ issues go way beyond him: I have no idea if Spurs will fire their manager by the time you read this after they needed an injury time equalizer to avoid defeat at Burnley. Put your sensible, reasonable hat on and you’ll note that Tottenham hit the crossbar, forced some dandy saves out of Martin Dúbravka and likely deserved to win. But we’ve gone way past sense and reasoning. And if they were a little unlucky? Hey, it’s karma for the Borussia Dortmund sending off that paved the way to victory in the Champions League next week. (Plus, lest we forget, Burnley are second-from-bottom and haven’t beaten anyone since October.)

You might or might not think Frank is part of the problem. What’s evident is that it’s hard to see how he’s part of the solution. We saw nominally gifted defenders making craven blunders at the back (including Micky van de Ven, who was put on his backside not by vintage Neymar, but by Jaidon Anthony). We saw Yves Bissouma, who was mysteriously M.I.A. from the starting lineup since the Europa League final last season, picked in the first XI. We saw a team with a ton of the ball, and little idea how to use it. We get the injuries, the chaos, Daniel Levy’s departure, questionable recruitment and all that. But it looks like trial and error is his preferred solution to fix things, and that’s not a way forward. Not in this toxic environment.