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Mike Clay
Who will score a touchdown on the game’s biggest stage? Here are my top 30 predicted scorers for Super Bowl LX, ordered by their implied odds*, as well as the anytime touchdown money line offered by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publication. The implied odds are what my projections consider the fair odds on that player to score on an anytime touchdown bet.
Touchdown Value Bets
Rhamondre Stevenson +160
My projection suggests this one should be at +106, so we’re getting some nice value on New England’s lead back. That lead back designation became very evident last week against Denver when Stevenson played 94% of the offensive snaps (second highest of his career), while handling 25 carries and a pair of targets. Stevenson has yet to find the end zone during the playoffs, but that’s somewhat unlucky, as he has 58 touches and the team’s lone goal-line carry during the three games.
Buzz: Biggest Super Bowl bets so far
• Early bets | Trends, updated odds
• Anytime Touchdowns: Who will score?
• Seahawks favored over Patriots
LX coverage | Betting home
The Seahawks haven’t allowed many touchdowns to running backs this season, but backs have generated a ton of yardage against them lately (124.4 yards per game over their past seven outings), Kyren Williams found the end zone against them last week and backs were targeted a league-high 127 times during the regular season. Don’t get me wrong, this is a tough matchup, but that’s why we’re getting +160 on a player who is a near lock to get the rock when New England approaches the goal line. Interestingly, I also think there’s value on TreVeyon Henderson (+550 moneyline vs. +402 implied), as he should play a larger role in the Super Bowl than he did last week. He averaged 14 touches per game in his prior eight outings in which Stevenson also played prior to seeing only three on Sunday.
George Holani +450
Holani is far from a household name, but my projection for Seattle’s change-of-pace back behind Kenneth Walker III implies a +388 anytime TD line. Fresh off injured reserve last week, Holani quietly handled three carries and four targets on 23 snaps. We saw him in the No. 2 role back in Week 3 as well, and he was used similarly, totaling 10 carries and two targets on 20 snaps. Holani, a 2024 undrafted free agent with one career touchdown, is certainly a longshot, but it’s fairly evident that Seattle does not intend to utilize Walker as an every-down player (he’s yet to clear 19 carries or 64% of the snaps in a single game this season). New England’s run defense is tough, but offenses tend to scheme toward a run-first approach against them and we’ve seen them surrender RB touchdowns in bunches at times this season (seven allowed during a four-game stretch spanning Weeks 13-17). This is worth a look at +450.
Anytime TD Super Sleepers: Eric Saubert +1300, Jack Westover +4000
2-plus Anytime TD Values: Rashid Shaheed +4000, Kayshon Boutte +3000
*Implied odds convert the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a money line. Look for implied odds that are higher than the money line offered. For example, if the implied odds are -150 and the money line is -110, then Clay’s projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
