AFC Championship Game preview: Schedule, X factors, key stats

The divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is almost over.

One conference championship game is set, as the Broncos will host the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. In the NFC, the Seahawks will host the winner of the Rams-Bears divisional showdown in the NFC title game.

In anticipation of next weekend’s conference title game matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the divisional round. Seth Walder explored how each team can advance, and Matt Bowen picked an early X factor. We also provided opening lines and game projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Jump to a matchup:
NE-DEN

AFC

When: 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
FPI projection: NE, 60% (by an average of 3.52 points)

What we learned about the Broncos in the divisional round: Call it another resounding confirmation of the Broncos’ resiliency. Denver’s overtime win over the Bills was its 13th come-from-behind win of the season, including the playoffs; it set the NFL regular-season record with 12. It was the Broncos’ sixth win this season in which they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter. They let a 23-10 lead slip away, took the lead, lost it again in the closing seconds of regulation, then pulled another overtime escape after cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian’s interception ended what could have been Buffalo’s game-winning drive. Quarterback Bo Nix’s fractured right ankle will be yet another test for the Broncos to overcome in their quest for a fourth Super Bowl title. — Jeff Legwold

Jarrett Stidham is starting for Denver. There are many reasons why the Patriots could and should win against the Broncos, but there’s nothing quite as impactful as the simple fact that Denver is starting a backup quarterback. And it means that in the most important phase of any football game — passing offense — the Broncos are severely outmatched.

That’s not only because of Stidham. It’s because the Patriots have, in my view, the MVP from this regular season. Drake Maye led the NFL in QBR and completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. And while the Broncos’ pass rush and secondary will make life more difficult on Maye, he also led all quarterbacks in scramble rate (10.3%). Plus, Denver’s defense isn’t quite in the same league as the Texans, who the Patriots just beat.

Maye will hardly have to be perfect because of who is on the other side. The Broncos will be diminished with Stidham at quarterback and that ought to be enough for the best passing offense in the NFL. New England’s defense isn’t elite, but it’s a heck of a lot better with Milton Williams on the field and Christian Gonzalez’s recent improvement in the postseason. Unless things go unexpectedly awry, the Patriots should be Super Bowl bound. — Seth Walder

Why the Broncos will win: Let’s be real. In the wake of the news that Nix is out for the season, we should change this prompt to why the Broncos could win this game. But there’s always a chance, and for the Broncos, it’s based on their defense being able to counter what the Patriots do best. Denver’s defense will have to deliver an AFC Championship Game win and a trip to the Super Bowl. But it can.

The Broncos’ secondary boasts a superstar cornerback in Pat Surtain II, a strong nickel back in McMillian and a hard-hitting safety in Talanoa Hufanga. Their pass rush also has an advantage over New England’s offensive line. Powered by players such as edge rusher Nik Bonitto and defensive tackle Zach Allen, the Broncos rank third in pass rush win rate, giving them the edge over a Patriots’ offensive line that finished 13th in pass block win rate.

As for the Broncos’ biggest question, backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will be protected by arguably the league’s best offensive line. While Stidham is clearly a massive downgrade from Nix, the rest of Denver’s roster is loaded. That gives the Broncos a shot (a long shot) to advance. — Walder

Early X factor: Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. The Broncos’ defense allowed an average of 59.7 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, and we just watched Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid catch six passes for 83 yards and a score in the divisional round. Henry can work the seams, while also uncovering as an outlet for quarterback Drake Maye. Plus, Henry caught five touchdowns in the red zone this season. — Bowen

Matchup background: The Broncos and Patriots have not played since 2023, when New England beat Denver 26-23 in Russell Wilson’s last game with the Broncos. Denver owns a 4-1 advantage over the Patriots in the playoffs, including AFC Championship Game victories after the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The latter, a 20-18 Broncos victory, came after the Patriots failed to convert a game-tying two-point conversion in the final seconds. — ESPN

Stat to know: Stidham’s last pass attempt in a game came Jan. 7, 2024. When the AFC Championship Game kicks off, it will be 749 days since his last attempt. That would be more than double the longest span between pass attempts for a QB starting a playoff game since 1950. The current longest is 370 days for Joe Webb, which ended when he started a 2012 wild-card loss for the Vikings. — ESPN Research

NFC

When: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

What we learned about the Seahawks in the divisional round: The Seahawks might be the most complete team in the playoffs. Their top-rated special teams produced a 95-yard touchdown return by Rashid Shaheed on the opening kickoff Saturday. Their No. 1-ranked scoring defense held San Francisco to a pair of field goals. Seattle’s run game continues to emerge, finishing with 175 yards and doing most of the heavy lifting for the offense as quarterback Sam Darnold battled through an oblique injury. The Seahawks look like Super Bowl contenders even if Darnold is limited going forward. The supporting cast around him is that good. — Brady Henderson

Matchup background: The Seahawks and Rams split their two regular-season meetings. Both were tight, as the Rams prevailed 21-19 at home on Week 11 while the Seahawks won a 38-37 overtime thriller in Week 16. They’ve met twice in the playoffs, too, with the Rams winning both meetings, most recently beating Seattle in the wild-card round after the 2020 season. The Bears and Seahawks last met late in the 2024 season, with Seattle beating Chicago 6-3 in a defensive battle. The Bears have won both playoff matchups between the teams, most recently prevailing in the 2010 NFC divisional playoffs. This would be their first postseason meeting in Seattle, though. — ESPN

Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-0 at home in conference championship games, and they are 3-0 all-time in NFC Championship Games. Their only loss in a conference championship game was in the 1983 AFC Championship on the road against the Raiders. — ESPN Research