Are you not being entertained? The decline of the open-play goal

One of the biggest stories of the Premier League season so far is the decline of goals scored in open play and how teams have been scoring more from set-pieces instead.

When we compare how goals have been scored to the first 11 games last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer overall.

If we look at the bigger picture and the number of shots teams are taking, there have been an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage last time out.

And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, there have actually been just two more shots generated from them outside of penalties, showing how effective teams have been at finding ways to score from dead-ball situations.

The 301 goals scored in 110 games so far averages out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for the whole season would be the lowest for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69).

But just 196 goals scored in open play averages out at 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76).

2009-10 is also the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season’s rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).

So which teams are most responsible for this change in how goals are scored this season?

In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest decline, scoring just four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolves, the Premier League’s decline in open play goals is very much a London thing, with five of the capital’s seven sides scoring at least five goals fewer from open play than last season.

In fairness, that’s largely down to them scoring lots of goals at the start of last season rather than them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.

Meanwhile Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with all but one of their 23 goals scored this season coming in open play.

We’ve compared the promoted teams with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off winners Sunderland have scored three more goals in open play than Southampton did in their first 11 games on their way to relegation last season.

When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have seen the biggest increase, with both sides replacing the five fewer goals that they’ve scored in open play with the same number from dead-ball situations.

Manchester United have scored twice as many goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season before Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland again have been more successful at scoring than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Manchester City don’t seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-pieces because they’ve scored three fewer than last season, as have Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.

Below is a table showing how every team have scored their goals so far in the Premier League compared to the first 11 games last season.

Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season’s top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to buck the trend so far by doing the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to see if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and start scoring more goals in open play too.