The NFL’s final four is set and the betting lines are not what many would have expected before the season — or even before the past weekend.
The New England Patriots opened as 4.5-point road favorites over the Denver Broncos for the AFC championship, while the Seattle Seahawks opened as 1.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC championship, according to DraftKings lines. After early betting, New England jumped out to -5.5 and Seattle to -2.5.
In lookahead hypothetical lines, the Broncos were 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots, but they saw their odds drop precipitously following the news that quarterback Bo Nix would miss the remainder of the postseason with a fractured right ankle. Bookmakers polled said that Nix is worth anywhere between five and seven points to the spread.
Buffalo Bills, they were +370. They lengthened to +650 in the immediate aftermath of the Nix news, then to +950 by the end of Saturday, before finally settling at +1100. It would be the longest odds to win the Super Bowl entering a conference championship since the New York Giants (+1500) in January 2008; the Giants famously went on to win it all that year.
The Seahawks lead the way on the Super Bowl board heading into the conference championship games, with +145 odds, followed by the Rams at +225 and the Patriots at +255.
All of these teams began the season as relative long shots: Denver and Los Angeles were each +2200, while New England and Seattle were each +6000. Either of the former two teams winning would represent the longest preseason odds since the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+4000), and either of the latter two would mark the longest since the 2001 Patriots (+6000).
With many of the public’s Super Bowl favorites eliminated, there is little left for sportsbooks to sweat, but there are at least a couple of liabilities still on the board: BetMGM said that a Seahawks Super Bowl win would be its worst outcome, while DraftKings points to a Patriots win as its worst.
ESPN’s David Purdum contributed to this report.
