Six teams are still eligible to reach the ACC conference championship game — Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Another four are still in contention to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
And don’t forget that Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
The bubble is bursting with lingering hope heading into the final week of the regular season. With only Rivalry Week and the conference championship games remaining, the picture can still change drastically as teams punctuate their résumés — or tumble out entirely.
Little if any change, though, is expected tonight in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee’s top 12 teams won on Saturday — and 10 of those victories came by double digits. While the latest top 12 projection remained unchanged, the teams on the bubble have shifted.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will account for the committee’s latest top 25.
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or it can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate comes if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide has played the ninth-most-difficult schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and its résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it could face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee is the first step, but they would also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s not inconceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of it matters, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its spot in the top 10. It could even have a case this week to jump Ole Miss. Oregon now has an 18% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
First team out: Michigan. The Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State AND a loss by either Indiana OR Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head loss to USC because the Trojans have three losses and are likely to drop behind Michigan in the latest ranking. The loss to Oklahoma, though, would probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finished with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, would have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
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First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona AND a BYU loss OR a win AND losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND both BYU and Arizona State win AND Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 13% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. It’s imperative they win at Pitt on Saturday and would help if the committee ranked the Panthers tonight. The Canes have a compelling case this week to unseat Utah for the No. 12 spot after beating Virginia Tech for their third straight win by at least 17 points. That was Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been waiting for. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, but until the Canes creep closer to the Irish in the ranking and join them in the same pool of teams the group votes on, they will likely remain behind the Irish.
Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week’s games.
First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: if Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. It will be interesting to see if the committee ranks three-loss SMU tonight. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter of which are both above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get in the ACC championship game with a win AND either a loss by SMU OR UVA. Duke can get in with a win and losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and/or Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave will likely maintain its spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following its 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference championship game and there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — if Navy is not ranked ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking on Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win AND a loss by either Tulane OR North Texas.
Bracket
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
