CFP semifinal takeaways: How Miami prevailed in an instant classic

We can only hope that the second semifinal is as good as the first.

On Thursday night in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami watched multiple leads disappear, dropped potential interceptions, committed penalties and still gutted its way into the College Football Playoff National Championship game with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss.

Carson Beck’s 3-yard touchdown run made the difference, but it was a wonderful back-and-forth affair until the end.

As we prepare for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Indiana and Oregon on Friday evening, here are the key plays and takeaways from an incredible first semifinal.

What just happened?

Miami paid millions of dollars to bring Beck to town, and in the drive that would define his season with the Hurricanes, he led them 75 yards for the winning touchdown to send them to the national title game. Money well spent, huh?

Beck’s 3-yard touchdown scramble with 18 seconds left capped a madcap fourth quarter that featured four lead changes and even saw Ole Miss drive close enough for a shot at the end zone on the final play.

The Hurricanes hogged the ball for much of the game — time of possession after three quarters: Miami 33:50, Ole Miss 11:10 — but dropped four potential interceptions, missed a field goal and threw a pick deep in Rebels territory. Given extra life, Ole Miss took two fourth-quarter leads, first on Lucas Carneiro’s fourth field goal of the evening, then on a 24-yard touchdown pass from Trinidad Chambliss to Dae’Quan Wright. But with four third-down conversions, Beck guided the Canes down the field and won the game.

Impact plays

Kewan Lacy’s 73-yard burst early in the second quarter — Ole Miss’ first good offensive play of the game — gave the Rebels a sudden 7-3 lead. Lacy tweaked a hamstring and missed most of the next two quarters before returning, but the touchdown bought Ole Miss some time.

Miami leveraged the game back in its favor. Keelan Marion scored on a bomb against busted coverage late in the first half to make it 17-10. After generating just 69 receiving yards in his first two playoff games, he was the semifinal star of the Miami receiving corps, catching seven passes for 114 yards.

Three Carneiro field goals — including a 58-yarder at the end of the first half and a doinked-in 52-yarder in the third quarter — would push the Rebels back in front, but they wasted a golden opportunity after a pair of Miami personal fouls (the Canes had 10 penalties on the evening) set up a first-and-goal. Ole Miss gained only 4 yards in three plays and settled for a 19-17 lead, which disappeared within two minutes on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard burst off a screen pass.

Ole Miss created the third lead change of the fourth quarter with Wright’s touchdown but left plenty time on the clock for Beck and the Canes. They used most of it, took the lead and broke up a Hail Mary.

See you next fall, Rebels

The most thrilling and headline-grabbing Ole Miss season in recent history ended with two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers. The Rebels played brilliant ball down the stretch, winning their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-14 to clinch a playoff bid despite the waves of headlines regarding Lane Kiffin’s potential move to LSU. And despite Kiffin leaving town and trying to take assistants with him before Ole Miss’ season had ended, the Rebels thumped Tulane in the playoff, came back from nine points down at halftime to beat Georgia in the quarterfinals, then came back again to nearly beat Miami.

So many of the Rebels’ stars made big plays Thursday night. Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a touchdown and used a great 19-yard scramble to set up Ole Miss’ last go-ahead touchdown. Lacy rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries, reentering the game after his hamstring injury and grinding out tough yards. Leading receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III combined for nine catches and 117 yards, while junior Cayden Lee came up big (five for 67) and Wright had three huge catches, all in the second half. Carneiro’s huge leg shined again. On defense, Suntarine Perkins had 1.5 sacks, and linebacker TJ Dottery and safety Wydett Williams Jr. made big plays early during Miami’s last drive, which could have been remembered differently with a different ending.

Pete Golding inherited a seemingly impossible situation with Kiffin leaving, but Ole Miss closed ranks and came achingly close to earning a spot in the national title game. Better yet, stars such as Chambliss (if he is granted an extra year of eligibility) and Lacy have already committed to staying in Oxford despite Kiffin’s efforts to bring them to Baton Rouge. Some stars have exhausted their eligibility, but Ole Miss enters 2026 battle-hardened and full of upside.

What’s next

Mark Fletcher Jr. was again brilliant, rushing for 133 yards. CharMar Brown was again a tough-yardage master, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown. Marion was a secret weapon, and Toney, the talented freshman, set up a touchdown with a tough third-down conversion in the first half and scored one himself in the fourth quarter.

The defense couldn’t corral Chambliss, recording only one sack, but the Canes allowed just one big run to Lacy and the backs. And they absolutely dominated third downs: Ole Miss went just 2-for-10 while the Canes went 11-for-19. Credit to the Rebels for nearly winning anyway, but the Canes controlled most of what they wanted to control. They hogged the ball beautifully, and when that couldn’t win them the game, they sped up the tempo and won a back-and-forth final quarter.