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Chaos for Barcelona and Liverpool, Arsenal No.1: Reranking Champions League after MD5

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Chaos for Barcelona and Liverpool, Arsenal No.1: Reranking Champions League after MD5

  • Bill ConnellyNov 27, 2025, 08:55 AM ET

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      Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

Eight goals in Paris. Seven in Piraeus. Five in Copenhagen and Liverpool. Four at the Emirates (and in Cyprus!). Wednesday’s Champions League action gave us 42 goals in nine matches, complementing a surprising but not particularly prolific Tuesday of action and providing something for everyone.

Most of the sport’s heavyweights continue to cruise toward the knockout rounds, but there are bad moods at Manchester City and Barcelona, Liverpool are spiraling further, and we’ll go down to the wire with about 12 or 13 teams fighting for around six spots in the knockout rounds.

So let’s take a look ahead to what’s left in the competition, and then let’s do what we do after each matchday: Rank teams!

The biggest remaining matches

Here’s what the table currently looks like, with each team’s points and goal differential, plus their odds of both advancing to the knockout rounds and winning the title, per Opta’s supercomputer.

Seventeen teams have odds of 95% or greater to advance, per Opta, and four (Arsenal, Bayern, PSG and Real Madrid) are at least 83% likely to earn a top-eight finish and a bye to the round of 16.

With this in mind, here are what I would consider the biggest matches of each remaining matchday.

Matchday 6

Manchester City at Real Madrid (Dec. 10). Any finals rematch is going to be big regardless, as is a Pep Guardiola vs. Xabi Alonso coaching showdown. And with City having dropped points on multiple occasions — they’ve been on quite the «two steps forward, one step back» ascent this year — their place in the top eight is far from certain.

Liverpool at Inter Milan (Dec. 9). Not only have Liverpool now lost nine of their last 12, but they’ve also lost their last three by a combined 10-1. If they can’t rebound against West Ham and Leeds in league play, is Arne Slot even still Liverpool manager when they visit the San Siro?

Ajax at Qarabag (Dec. 10). Qarabag have been one of the more exciting stories of the league phase, but their one-sided 2-0 loss to Napoli was quite a reality check. They need points from this matchup against pointless Ajax, or else their odds of advancing might take a sharp turn.

Atletico Madrid at PSV Eindhoven (Dec. 9). Two of the streakiest — and, when they’re on, most enjoyable — teams in this competition seem destined to finish ranked in the teens (and perhaps face off in the playoff round). I’m putting this one on the list because it could just be fun.

play

2:32

Marcotti: Kompany didn’t have an answer for Arteta’s Arsenal tactics

Gab & Juls react to Arsenal’s 3-1 win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

Matchday 7

Arsenal at Inter Milan (Jan. 20). Inter fell late against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday, but they’ve still been among the steadiest teams in the competition, and they’re typically as defensively sturdy as anyone in this competition not named Arsenal. Different kind of test for the Gunners, who have aced every test thus far.

Borussia Dortmund at Tottenham Hotspur (Jan. 20). Two teams capable of just about anything – for better or worse – and two teams very much in the running for a top-eight finish.

Liverpool at Marseille (Jan. 21). Another tricky away trip for Liverpool. Marseille aren’t incredibly consistent, but they looked excellent beating Newcastle on Tuesday, and they did nearly beat Real Madrid in Matchday 1.

Atletico Madrid at Galatasaray (Jan. 21). Galatasaray looked like a potential top-eight team until Tuesday’s home loss to Union Saint-Gilloise. Victor Osimhen should be healthy soon, but he might have only just returned from AFCON 2025 when this one kicks off.

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2:49

Marcotti: You can’t blame everything on Arne Slot

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens react to Liverpool’s shocking 4-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League.

Matchday 8

Chelsea at Napoli (Jan. 28). Chelsea have won nine of 11 overall and handled Barcelona with surprising ease on Tuesday. We’ll see how hot they are two months from now, but they could be positioning themselves for a great seed, and Napoli should still be jockeying for position, though perhaps only in the teens, as well.

Newcastle at PSG (Jan. 28) and Inter Milan at Borussia Dortmund (Jan. 28). Two games with top-eight stakes.

Juventus at Monaco (Jan. 28). Two teams that still have work to do if they want to advance.

Ranking all 36 teams after Matchday 5

(Note: These rankings are based on my personal opinions for where teams stand at the moment: it’s not intended to directly reflect the current table.)

1. Arsenal: Bayern were the second-best team in the competition to date, and Arsenal absolutely steamrolled them.

– Shots: Arsenal 12, Bayern 8
– xG: Arsenal 2.7, Bayern 0.7
– Post-shot xG for shots on target: Arsenal 3.5, Bayern 0.5
– High turnovers forced: Arsenal 9, Bayern 2

Arsenal gave Bayern as much of the ball as they wanted (60% possession), and they couldn’t do anything with it outside of a beautiful Lennart Karl goal.

2. Bayern Munich: Actually, I’m keeping Bayern here. I would still pick them against anyone else right now; I just think Arsenal’s on a different level at the moment. We’ll see if they can keep it up.

That said … this wasn’t great.

3. Paris Saint-Germain: Their Wednesday performance against Spurs wasn’t great, but they got the job done.

Actually, I should rephrase: Vitinha (three goals on five shots, plus a team-leading 26 combined progressive passes and carries and seven ball recoveries) was great. Vitinha got the job done.

4. Chelsea (up 7 from last rankings): They were fortunate Barcelona didn’t go up early, but once the visitors missed their shot, Chelsea took control. And my goodness, Estêvão.

That’s three Champions League goals in 308 minutes for the 18-year-old.

5. Inter Milan (up 1): No big shame in losing at Atletico, especially in a match in which they had more shots (17-15) and created more xG (1.36-0.98). Atleti kept Hakan Çalhanoglu mostly quiet in the creation department (one long-range shot attempt, zero chances created, a good-not-great seven progressive passes), which doesn’t usually happen.

play

1:45

Burley: Mbappé the ‘saving grace’ for Xabi Alonso & Real Madrid

Craig Burley and Stewart Robson discuss Real Madrid’s struggles following Kylian Mbappé’s impressive performance during their 4-3 win vs. Olympiacos.

6. Real Madrid (up 1): I long to live in a world in which Olympiacos is capable of being Real Madrid’s equal from time to time, and they were in Piraeus on Wednesday, attempting more shots (18-15) and creating equal xG (1.69-1.68). Real Madrid needed all four of Kylian Mbappé‘s goals — including three in a seven-minute span — to take the three points. This was very fun to watch.

None of it was fun for Real Madrid, mind you. Disappointing stuff from them. (Plus, Eduardo Camavinga had to leave injured.) But it was good fun for us.

7. Manchester City (down 3): Pep Guardiola rotated nearly his entire lineup against Bayer Leverkusen, and they still controlled the ball (55% possession) while also creating more solid opportunities. But they couldn’t put the ball in the net, and 25 minutes from Erling Haaland at the end couldn’t save them. A missed opportunity in a bad week.

8. Borussia Dortmund (up 6): Villarreal haven’t been very good in this competition, but BVB dominated them on Tuesday: Not even including two penalty attempts, they attempted four shots worth at least 0.28 xG and eight worth at least 0.11. Villarreal managed just one decent attempt all game. This was a deserved 4-0 win, and Dortmund’s hopes for a top-eight finish remain very much alive.

9. Newcastle (down 1): Dominated the first 10 minutes against Marseille and then completely (and perhaps inexcusably) ceded control of the ball and the match until the late stages.

10. Atletico Madrid (up 3): It might not have been the most prolific match on Wednesday, but it had the most exciting ending.

11. Tottenham Hotspur (down 2): Three days after Arsenal wiped the floor with them, Spurs actually showed well against PSG, creating very similar levels of shot quality (xG: PSG 1.85, Spurs 1.79) and getting two goals and an assist from former PSG man Randal Kolo Muani. Great stuff.

Only, PSG finished even better, and that was that. Spurs are probably destined for a ranking in the teens now.

12. Barcelona (down 2): Chelsea certainly took advantage of Barcelona’s high defensive line at times (and Barca kept the high-wire act going after Ronald Araújo‘s red card), but this wasn’t the typical Hansi Flick loss. Barca managed only 53% possession and three shot attempts even before the red card; after Ferran Torres missed a great opportunity (0.57 xG) after a high turnover in the sixth minute, Barca just didn’t offer enough.

13. Atalanta (up 2): They haven’t won since September in Serie A, but they haven’t lost in the Champions League since September either. Odd season. Either way, they created nonstop chances in Wednesday’s 3-0 win over Eintracht — not only did they score three times, they hit the post three times as well.

14. Galatasaray (down 2): They were in the mix for a top-eight finish and a knockout round bye, but Tuesday’s home loss to Union Saint-Gilloise — suffered without the injured Victor Osimhen — makes that trickier.

15. Liverpool (down 10): Wednesday’s loss to PSV was the encapsulation of everything that has been going wrong at Anfield. They were too error-prone and wide open in defense, Mohamed Salah was invisible (one shot worth 0.03 xG and only one ball recovery in 90 minutes), and everyone else suffered from horrifically poor finishing. They attempted 27 shots worth 2.43 xG, and only Dominik Szoboszlai‘s 16th-minute rebound effort went in the net.

Hugo Ekitike, Cody Gakpo and Alexander Isak attempted nine shots worth 0.73 xG. Zero goals.

16. Sporting CP: Eighteen-year-old Geovany Quenda had a goal and an assist, and Sporting absolutely sliced and diced a really sound Club Brugge team, 3-0. While it might be tough for them to hold onto a top-eight spot with upcoming games against Bayern and PSG, they’re all but certain to advance, and they’re growing into the competition nicely.

17. Bayer Leverkusen (up 1): Great finishing from Alejandro Grimaldo and Patrik Schick allowed Leverkusen to punish Manchester City for playing a rotated squad — it wasn’t their fault they only had to face Haaland for 25 minutes (and Jérémy Doku and Phil Foden for 45), but they took full advantage.

18. Napoli (up 4): Scott McTominay to the rescue, once again.

Napoli created almost all of the good chances against Qarabag (xG: 3.5 to 0.5), but couldn’t actually put one in the net until McTominay stepped up in the 65th minute. He has three Champions League goals this season, and two have given Napoli the lead.

19. Marseille: They turned in an inspired performance on Tuesday in the win over Newcastle. Two quick goals from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang after halftime helped to overcome an early deficit and after three losses in four, righted the ship a bit.

Aubameyang now has three goals and three assists in five Champions League games this season (and 22 goals and eight assists all-time in the competition).

20. PSV Eindhoven (up 6): Outside of the top five in the table, PSV have scored more goals than anyone in this competition (13). They can occupy possession a decent amount, but they are absolutely thriving in counterattacking situations. Just ask Liverpool.

21. Juventus (down 1): It took them a while to get their footing up in the Arctic Circle, but they got goals from Loïs Openda, Weston McKennie and, for the first time in quite a while, Jonathan David, eventually earning a deserved three points. Since they began the week awfully close to the make-or-break line, this was an awfully important result.

22. Monaco (down 5): They were tidy and controlled for 72 minutes against Pafos and looked like they’d coast to a 2-1 win. But they lost first the plot and then two points, allowing Pafos to control the last 18 minutes (plus stoppage time) and eventually find an equalizer.

– First 72 minutes: Monaco 2 (1.48 xG), Pafos 1 (0.45 xG)
– Last 18 minutes: Pafos 1 (0.73 xG), Monaco 0 (0.04 xG)

Their place in the next round is far from assured; those two points could end up costly.

23. Eintracht Frankfurt (down 2): They’ve played five Champions League matches, and they’ve allowed at least three goals in three of them. Perhaps even more alarming? They’ve scored twice in the last four.

24. Club Brugge: Pressed well against Sporting (high turnovers: Brugge 23, Sporting 4) and had plenty of the ball, but couldn’t do anything with it. They have to face Arsenal in a couple of weeks, so their chances of advancing will come down to handling their business against Kairat (away) and Marseille (home).

25. Qarabag (down 2): When Mateusz Kochalski saved a Rasmus Hojlund penalty in the 56th minute, it looked as if Qarabag might be able to withstand pressure and earn another point in the competition. But Napoli were relentless, went ahead 10 minutes later and eventually won 2-0. Qarabag host Ajax next, and if they don’t get all three points, their quest to advance might get a little tense.

26. Benfica (up 3): They’re 21st in xG differential, ahead of Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt, among others, and they deserved points before Tuesday. We’ll see if they can rally to make the knockout rounds.

27. Bodo/Glimt (down 2): Defense has always been the issue for Bodo/Glimt in European competitions, and it let them down at home against Juventus. They controlled the first 30 minutes and took an early lead, but the last 60 minutes belonged to Juve, and the odds of seeing a Champions League knockout round match in Bodo aren’t too hot right now.

28. Union Saint-Gilloise (up 3): After three straight losses, USG got themselves back into the competition with a lovely away win over Galatasaray. With only 34% possession, they created more quality opportunities, and while they benefited from a late costly miss from Davinson Sánchez, they were the better overall team.

29. Olympiacos (up 1): They played inspired, in front of an inspired home crowd, against Real Madrid. But they really could have used a point or three. They will need to take all six points away against Kairat and Ajax to have a shot at advancing.

30. Pafos (up 2): First of all, what an absolute missile of a header from 38-year-old David Luiz.

Second, this might be the guttiest team in this competition. They were overwhelmed 5-1 by Bayern in Matchday 2, but they’ve otherwise gone unbeaten, beating Villarreal and, thanks to their comeback against Monaco, drawing three times. They’ve allowed two goals in four matches that weren’t against Bayern.

31. Villarreal (down 4): They’ve been excellent in LaLiga, and they’re only three points out of first. But the Champions League campaign has been an absolute dud. They were second-best against Borussia Dortmund before Juan Foyth‘s red card and very much second-best after.

32. Athletic Club (down 4): With upcoming matches against PSG and Atalanta, they really needed three points from their trip to Prague. But it’s like they can’t resist the temptation of a nice nil-nil draw sometimes. (Granted, through Robert Navarro‘s work alone, they probably did enough to earn a goal.)

33. Copenhagen: It got sloppy late, as a 3-0 lead became 3-2 in the final 10 minutes. But you absolutely have to beat the worst team in the competition at home, and Copenhagen did so with (80 minutes of) ease.

34. Slavia Prague: They should create a Best of the Rest squad, made up of the best performers from eliminated teams, and stick it in the knockout rounds. Slavia central defenders Stepán Chaloupek and David Zima would likely be the starters at the back. They’ve combined for 88 and 87 defensive interventions, respectively, though five matches. Only Union Saint-Gilloise midfielder Anan Khalaili has more.

35. Ajax: They weren’t awful against Benfica, and they still have chances to earn points against Qarabag, Villarreal and Olympiacos, but woof, what a dismal campaign.

36. Kairat: They’re fighting. They drew with Pafos in Matchday 3 (albeit with a nearly match-long man advantage), they were tied with Inter after 65 minutes in Matchday 4, and they nearly came back to tie at Copenhagen on Wednesday. That’s all you can ask for at this point.

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