Welcome back to the playoffs, New England Patriots.
The last time we saw the Patriot Way grace us this deep into January, New England got drilled in Buffalo with Mac Jones leading the way at quarterback in the 2021 season. New England’s last postseason home game happened to be the last time we saw Tom Brady in a Patriots uniform, suffering an upset loss to Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans in the 2019 season’s playoffs.
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Speaking of Vrabel, he’s back, this time in familiar digs as New England’s head coach. But all eyes will be mainly focused on his quarterback, Drake Maye, who is in a tight MVP race with the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford.
Previous meeting this season
The Chargers and Patriots didn’t play each other this season. The two teams matched up late in 2024 with Los Angeles winning decisively in New England, 40-7. Maye passed for only 117 yards, his worst game as a full-time starter during his rookie season.
On the other side, Justin Herbert posted the kind of performance that the Chargers will need from him Sunday night. He threw for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns, two of those scoring passes going to Ladd McConkey, who finished with 94 yards. J.K. Dobbins (now with the Broncos) rushed for 76 yards.
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Health update
The Patriots have no major injuries to deal with going into Sunday. But five players missed practice this week due to illness and the team will hope more don’t come down with a bug leading up to kickoff. For the Chargers, starting running back Omarion Hampton — the team’s second-leading rusher — hasn’t practiced all week due to an ankle issue that sidelined him for eight games this season. Edge rusher Bud Dupree has also missed practice.
The head coaches
It’s Michigan vs. Ohio State on the opposing sidelines.
Vrabel is a leading candidate for Coach of the Year honors after turning New England around from a 4-13 slog in 2024 to a 13-4 resurgence this season. He has a 3-5 playoff record, which includes the Tennessee Titans’ run to the AFC championship game in the 2019 season. Harbaugh boasts a 5-4 mark, which includes three consecutive NFC championship games with the San Francisco 49ers and an appearance in Super Bowl XLVII. Yet the Chargers lost in last season’s wild-card round, 32-12, to the Houston Texans.
Key player for the Chargers
As Herbert goes, so do the Chargers. Last season, he threw four interceptions in Los Angeles’ playoff defeat. This season, when he didn’t play well, the Chargers typically couldn’t overcome those poor performances. (The lone exception was Week 14’s 22-19 overtime win over the Philadelphia Eagles, in which Herbert threw for only 139 yards.) However, the Patriots may provide an ideal matchup for Herbert to shine. New England allowed 4,459 passing yards this season and 8.9 yards per throw, both worst in the AFC. And only the Bengals gave up more TD passes (36) this season than the Patriots’ 31 among conference teams.
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Key player for the Patriots
Maye has been viewed as an MVP candidate throughout the season. But he’ll face the NFL’s fourth-best pass defense (3,314 yards allowed) in the Chargers. Only two other teams had more interceptions than the 19 Los Angeles grabbed this season. So the Patriots may have to run the ball to win. That could suit them well, as they compiled the third-most rushing yards in the AFC. TreVeyon Henderson led the team with 911 yards and 9 TDs. He ran for a season-high 148 yards and two scores in Week 15 versus the Bills.
Prediction
New England was actually better on the road (8-0) this season than at home (6-3). But temperatures in Foxborough, Massachusetts are expected to be in the mid-30s by Sunday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff, which isn’t ideal for a team coming from Los Angeles.
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The conditions could make it difficult for both quarterbacks, which puts an emphasis on the running game. Maye should get more help in that regard than Herbert. The Patriots’ ability to control the line of scrimmage on offense with two talented running backs capable of rushing for 100 yards could be the difference.
