Chelsea vs Arsenal: Are Blues genuine title contenders?

If second-placed Chelsea beat league leaders Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, they will be just three points behind their London rivals.

So can Enzo Maresca’s side upset the odds to win the Premier League this season?

Arsenal are on a 16-match unbeaten run as they bid to end their 21-year Premier League title drought, having last lost on 31 August at Liverpool.

However, Chelsea, who have had an extra day’s rest after their 3-0 Champions League win at home to Barcelona on Tuesday, are on their own six-game unbeaten run – and feeling confident.

Asked about the significance of a win on Sunday, Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca said: «We still have five or six months to go. It will be important where we are in February or March, we’ll see then.»

We look at whether the numbers back Chelsea’s chances of mounting a sustained title challenge.

In simple terms, Chelsea are playing well – but not well enough to be champions.

Chelsea’s attack, even after losing Cole Palmer for more than two months through injury, is on the same level as Arsenal’s.

However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive statistics set them apart.

Historically, to win the title a team needs to average a +1 non-penalty expected goals (npXG) difference per game – meaning you are creating substantially more chances than you concede on a consistent basis.

Only Arsenal are achieving that measure of consistency so far this season, with Chelsea needing to improve defensively.

Having beaten Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this term, Spain left-back Marc Cucurella said his side’s inconsistency against lesser opposition is an issue.

«I think we dropped points this season against teams where you expect to win,» said the defender.

Interestingly, Arsenal’s exceptional defence threatens Chelsea’s record for the most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) in a Premier League campaign, achieved under Jose Mourinho in 2005.

«You can see they don’t concede goals,» Maresca said. «They are defensively the best team and top of the league and Champions League, so they are the team to beat.»

There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams – both play a patient possession style featuring high pressing.

Yet another key difference is the quality of set-pieces. Arsenal are the best attacking set-piece team in the league, with 10 goals in 12 matches and the highest xG at 7.88. Chelsea, meanwhile, rank second with eight set-piece goals and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.

Despite Arsenal conceding only one fewer set-piece goal than Chelsea – three compared to four – they have the second-best xG against (2.04) when defending such situations, while Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Despite an improvement on last season, it may still be asking for trouble when Arsenal come to town.

Chelsea must also overcome an increasingly poor record against Arsenal on Sunday, with just one win in their past 11 Premier League meetings. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea are clearly top-four material based on their underlying statistics.

They started Maresca’s first season well and, interestingly, Chelsea’s defence is stronger this term, despite dealing with the loss of key defender Levi Colwill to a long-term injury.

After Maresca said his side were «not ready» to win the Premier League at this point last season – despite fans chanting «We’ve got our Chelsea back» – the Italian seems more optimistic this time around.

The 45-year-old said: «For sure, it’s different compared to one year ago because we spent one more year together.

«Then again, we are at the end of November so it is very early. It’s important to see where we are in March or April. In 18 months together, these players showed many times they can beat [top] teams.»

Maresca will hope to avoid a similarly poor winter run that almost cost his team Champions League qualification last season.

While he did not see qualification as a necessity in 2024-25, it certainly is this season, with his future as manager to be reviewed at the end of this campaign.

That said, Chelsea’s hierarchy would also view any title challenge this season as being ahead of schedule. Only last month they were having to give Maresca a vote of confidence during an early season wobble.

At that time, Chelsea faced questions relating to whether they were too young or rotating too much.

Striker Liam Delap suggested he thought Chelsea are capable of winning either the Premier League or Champions League on Tuesday night, echoing Colwill’s comments after Chelsea won the Conference League and Club World Cup at the end of last season.

Although rarely said publicly, BBC Sport understands several other players also believe Chelsea can achieve those goals this season.

Additional data collection and visualisations by Chris Collinson