Oklahoma’s gain could be Vanderbilt’s pain.
The Sooners are on a path to being 10-2 after winning 23-21 at Alabama on Saturday. With home games remaining against Missouri and LSU, the Sooners will be significant favorites in both. And if they win each of those games, they’re likely in the College Football Playoff.
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That will likely come at the expense of Vanderbilt if the Commodores finish 10-2 themselves. Vanderbilt has Kentucky and Tennessee remaining. And a win over the Vols will be a big deal. But it’s hard to see Vanderbilt getting ahead of Oklahoma thanks to its own loss to Alabama.
Here’s our latest College Football Playoff projection with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.
1. Ohio State (10-0, projected Big Ten champion)
Just one more week until Ohio State plays a ranked team again. The Buckeyes host Rutgers for their home finale in Week 13 before heading to Michigan. The Wolverines will be just the third ranked team Ohio State has played all season along with Texas and Illinois (which is no longer ranked). You can quibble with the strength of Ohio State’s schedule so far, but you certainly can’t argue the results. Ohio State easily put UCLA away on Saturday in a 48-10 win. As long as Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith are truly dealing with minor injuries, the Buckeyes are the favorites to repeat.
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2. Indiana (11-0, at-large)
Indiana will be a massive favorite over a hapless Purdue team in Week 14. Until then, the Hoosiers have two weeks to prepare as they’re off in Week 13. Indiana pulled away from Wisconsin in the second half on Saturday and suffered a brief scare after Fernando Mendoza had to get checked out in the injury tent. Mendoza ended up with twice as many touchdowns (4) as he had incompletions (2) as he was 22-of-24 passing for 299 yards and four scores.
3. Texas A&M (10-0, projected SEC champion)
What a comeback from the Aggies. You’d be forgiven for writing A&M off at halftime as they trailed South Carolina 30-3. Heck, even the most optimistic of Aggies fans were probably resigned to their team’s undefeated season ending. Instead, Texas A&M scored touchdowns on each of its first four second-half possessions and locked down the South Carolina offense to complete the 31-30 comeback. A&M shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble with Samford before its game vs. Texas in Week 14.
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4. Georgia (9-1, at-large)
The Bulldogs are now 3-0 against Texas since the Longhorns joined the SEC. Georgia’s well-timed onside kick effectively ended the game in its 35-10 win over the Longhorns. Texas’ offense couldn’t do anything and Georgia QB Gunner Stockton threw for four scores and ran for another. The Georgia offense is starting to look great at the right time. Can the Bulldogs sneak into the SEC title game? Their conference season is over and they need some help thanks to their loss to Alabama.
Here’s what the College Football Playoff picture looks like after Week 12. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)
No. 12 Navy (8-2, projected American champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, projected Big 12 champion)
The Midshipmen could sneak into the CFP rankings on Tuesday after taking down No. 24 USF 41-38. Navy’s defense continues to be a weak spot, but as long the Midshipmen are moving the ball like this on offense, they can keep up with anyone. Navy had 524 yards of offense and averaged over six yards a carry.
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Texas Tech, meanwhile, stops the run as well as anyone in college football. This may not be a good matchup for the Midshipmen if it happens. The Red Raiders blew out UCF at home on Saturday and are off in Week 13 before heading to West Virginia.
No. 11 Georgia Tech (9-1, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, at-large)
Georgia Tech needed a second-half comeback to beat Boston College. The Yellow Jackets outscored the Eagles 19-6 in the fourth quarter and needed a 23-yard field goal with 11 seconds to go for a 36-34 win. We’re going to chalk it up to a road game at a one-win opponent ahead of a win-and-in game for the ACC championship and a rivalry game against a top-10 opponent over the final two weeks of the season.
Ole Miss got stopped twice on fourth down near the goal line against Florida but did enough in the second half to beat the Gators, 34-24. The Rebels are also off in Week 13 and have just Mississippi State remaining. They’re probably part of the playoff no matter what at this point.
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No. 10 Alabama (8-2, at-large) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1, at-large)
There could be a fascinating scenario unfolding for the committee among the SEC teams. Alabama just needs to beat Auburn to make the SEC title game. If The Tide win the SEC title over Texas A&M, we assume they’ll get a playoff home game over a 10-2 Oklahoma team. But would an 11-2 Alabama team be behind an 11-1 Texas A&M or Georgia team in the rankings? How much would a win over the Bulldogs matter for seeding purposes? Could Alabama even get a bye with two losses and the SEC title?
Oregon, meanwhile, just needs to beat USC and Washington over the final two weeks of the season to make the playoff. The Ducks didn’t have any trouble with Minnesota on Friday night.
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No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2, at-large) at No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2, at-large)
Right now, we’re going with Oklahoma ahead of Alabama in the rankings with the assumption that Alabama ends up at 10-3 with a loss in the SEC title game. If the Tide win the SEC, we think they’ll end up ahead of Oklahoma.
Notre Dame put Pitt away very early on Saturday and has games against Syracuse and Stanford to close out the season. Those two teams have a combined record of 6-14. The Irish should be OK over the next two weeks.
