Facts to guide your Week 11 feelings about Jameson Williams, Derrick Henry, and … Jonnu Smith?

This past week, my mother’s visit has been noteworthy. With Mama Loza’s penchant for planning, we’ve been exploring potential retirement spots for her. With her having worked since she was 14, the thought of «resting» brings a mix of delight and anxiety. She’s opened up in ways I hadn’t anticipated.

Our chats have ranged from serious topics (the harsh winters in Chicago affecting her sciatica) to humorous observations (the Italian beef places in LA are «disappointing,» and she’s not interested in any vegan options). Yet, a common theme emerges in every conversation — a fresh chapter and the time to shape it.

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This experience may be brief, but it can still be rich with moments and fulfillment. I’m thankful that my parent isn’t looking to just fade away. While it can be a challenge to keep up with her vibrant energy (she critiqued my well-loved sofa just a couple of times), it’s also wonderfully invigorating.

My mother’s vivid daydreaming out loud is motivating. It reminds me to seize opportunities. Not in a «clean out the closets» or «fix the gutters» way, but rather in a way that says «make the most of this» and «get outside.»

Though modern life’s demands don’t allow for daily adventures, it doesn’t mean we can’t embrace the small joys. Whether it’s developing a savings plan to buy a serene farm (with rescued donkeys and Highland cows), taking a day off to binge «The Mandalorian,» or daring to hope for a Rome Odunze resurgence, we can opt for intention in our choices, no matter the scale.

Davis Mills didn’t let the ticking clock dictate his fate in Week 10. TreVeyon Henderson battled hard till the end, and Ladd McConkey kept his midseason momentum alive under the spotlight.

As time marches on, player movements are ever-changing. Staying updated can be overwhelming. Yet, the thrill of hitting on a shared intuition makes it worthwhile. Therefore, let’s use available time wisely to extract every bit of potential from our decisions.

Insights to guide your Week 11 emotions

Editor’s Note: This Marcus Mariota suggestion was added after the initial publication. The initial analysis on Stroud remains below.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders: It’s fitting that in a piece reflecting on the transient nature of existence, C.J. Stroud’s status became uncertain shortly after publication. Consequently, I feel compelled to propose a streaming candidate. Jacoby Brissett is certainly a viable choice, especially against a banged-up 49ers defense, which has allowed an average of 22 fantasy points per game to the position in the past month. Yet with Marvin Harrison Jr. off the field, and Brissett already rostered in over 20% of ESPN leagues, another option seems more feasible.

Mariota may not be the safest pick, yet he has surprisingly surpassed 16 fantasy points in three of his last four outings. His mobility adds appeal, having recorded at least 20 rushing yards in each game this season. He is likely to utilize his legs again against the Dolphins this week.

Miami’s defense has been porous, yielding 4.9 yards per carry (seventh most in the league) along with 11 runs of 20+ yards (second most) and ranking highly in terms of rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. It’s notable that the Phins allowed over 30 rushing yards to both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in consecutive games. Given the matchup, Mariota has potential as a low-end starter for those in need, with over 85% availability in ESPN leagues.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans: Mills played valiantly against Jacksonville last week. With Nico Collins making strides, Dalton Schultz proving reliable, and Woody Marks emerging, Stroud has no excuse to fall short in Week 11. Remarkably, Stroud has not surpassed 250 passing yards in any game this season but has compensated with decent rushing stats, averaging 24 yards per game (ranking QB9). His mobility will be crucial this weekend, especially against a Titans defense allowing the third-most rushing yards (121) to quarterbacks.

The Titans seem competent against passing, keeping all but one team under 250 passing yards per game. However, this data may be affected by game situations where teams turn to the run when ahead. More importantly, the Titans have surrendered seven passing touchdowns over their last three games. Stroud scored 18 fantasy points against Tennessee earlier in the season. If he clears concussion protocols and appears likely to play, he warrants a starting nod this weekend. Conversely, if he can’t play, Mariota (at Miami) or Brissett (against the injury-plagued 49ers) may be more reliable than Mills.

*As of original publication. Stroud’s playing odds have since been downgraded.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens: My social media has been filled with the usual frustrations and inquiries regarding Henry. This virtual football star remains a top performer, boasting 4.8 YPC (RB15) and handling the ball 20 or more times in his last four performances. Yet fantasy targets remain disappointed, as Henry has not surpassed 20 fantasy points since the season opener. Averaging a mere 14.5 FPTS since the Ravens’ Week 7 bye and just 12.25 points since Lamar Jackson returned complicates matters.

With a challenging matchup against Cleveland in Week 11, expecting a bounce-back seems unrealistic. The Browns permit only 3.7 yards per carry (third-fewest in the league) and have forced more fumbles than rushing touchdowns allowed. Unsurprisingly, Henry had his worst outing against Cleveland in Week 2, managing a feeble 2.1 yards per carry and just 23 rushing yards. Though a bounce-back is anticipated, he should be seen primarily as a reliable RB2 rather than a definitive RB1 this Sunday.

Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Minnesota Vikings: Jones’ 69 scrimmage yards on 12 carries in Week 10 weren’t standout numbers, but his utilization offers promise. Not only did he out-touch Jordan Mason, but he also outsnapped him, significantly running 28 routes to Mason’s seven and achieving five red zone snaps to Mason’s three. While this could be a mere anomaly, it may signal an optimistic shift for the veteran running back.

Jones doesn’t necessarily need a high volume of rushes to be effective, provided he remains involved in the passing game and is utilized in goal-line situations. Despite the challenges of the current running back landscape, his upcoming matchup against the Bears is favorable. Chicago is allowing an alarming 5.2 yards per carry to rushers and has given up the second-most receiving touchdowns to RBs this season. Jones should be considered a solid RB2 in Minneapolis.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions: The rollercoaster that is Jamo persists! Fantasy managers who invested in this promising wide receiver enjoyed a rewarding Week 10. Williams thrived against the Commanders’ weak secondary, catching six of seven targets for a season-high 119 yards and a touchdown, resulting in an impressive 23.9 FPTS (WR2). Despite the inconsistency that has become part of his narrative, Williams appears to be stabilizing his value positively.

As Jaelan Phillips has been), Williams continues to burnish his high-end flex potential, representing a solid start for managers seeking an edge as fantasy playoff season approaches.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers: McMillan’s fantasy forecast shows promise. He is developing into a leading target, ranking 12th in total targets (77). However, his average of just 12 fantasy points per game (WR33) falls short of expectations. The rookie also ranks in the top 10 in red zone opportunities but has only two touchdowns—both scored against Dallas in Week 6. Guaranteed fantasy managers expected more given the team’s quarterback struggles, yet the gap between McMillan’s target volume and output remains stark.

A daunting matchup against Atlanta likely won’t help matters. Jeff Ulbrich’s revamped unit has successfully restricted quarterbacks, permitting only 162 passing yards per game overall. This defensive pressure has negatively impacted passing efficiency, leading to just 9.3 wide-receiver-specific completions per game (second fewest in the league). Thus, McMillan’s role may be more focused on the run game. The game scenario should keep him active, but given the Falcons’ stinginess towards wideouts, it’s prudent to temper expectations. If any Panthers receiver could turn heads, it’s likely McMillan, yet limiting expectations to low-end WR2 numbers can be wise for Week 11.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns: Can Cleveland’s passing game be trusted? Not really. Yet, Jeudy still carries fantasy merit. He scored his first touchdown in Week 10 (his last being Week 14 of the previous season). Despite the common hesitation with scoring chases, there seems to be a concerted effort to target Jeudy more frequently. Following the Browns’ Week 9 bye, Jeudy snagged six catches for 78 yards, both season highs, across 12 targets. This is notable, having seen a very low target frequency from Dillon Gabriel prior to this recent game.

Though the stats may not reflect efficiency, the volume gives Jeudy a usable floor, especially against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense, while better, has allowed the sixth most receptions and yards to wide receivers in the past month. Also, across their prior three games, opposing wideouts have combined for over 200 yards per game against Baltimore (notably facing notable QBs as Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, and J.J. McCarthy). Deploying Jeudy as a WR3 carries risks but suggests a favorable outlook.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders: Bowers’ Week 10 fantasy point total was 40 less than in Week 9. It’s not that Bowers can’t perform, but the presence of Geno Smith along with the underwhelming Raiders offense leaves his floor dangerously low. While he only received three targets in a tough matchup, it’s crucial to remember that Denver has allowed just a single tight end to surpass 15 fantasy points all season (Theo Johnson in Week 7).

With Bowers’ significant role within the offense, a rebound seems likely. Patience is key.

Bonus: Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Dalton Schultz delivered fantastic results in Week 10, while Tyler Higbee faltered. Hence, I feel the need to suggest another sleeper for the opportunistic. Although Pat Freiermuth could limit Smith’s impact, Smith is third on the Steelers in routes run and second in total targets (38). His matchup against the Bengals is enticing, as Cincinnati has yielded the most fantasy points and 12 touchdowns to tight ends. Smith remains available in 83% of ESPN Fantasy leagues.