Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after an exciting four matchups on Thanksgiving and Black Friday — all upsets. For the 12 remaining games on the slate, we’ve got you covered with what you need to know.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favorite bet for Week 13. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.
Can the Steelers stick to their screen game against the Bills? Is there fantasy upside for the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence? Could the Titans and Browns both pull off upsets? Will offense be limited in the Texans-Colts matchup? And are the 49ers concerned about quarterback Brock Purdy? We dig into all of it.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions
Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 13 winners
How much of the gap between the Giants and Patriots is driven by their schedules?
The Giants (2-10) and Patriots (10-2) aren’t even in the same stratosphere in the standings. And the advanced numbers are fond of the Patriots, who have the No. 1 passing offense in terms of EPA per dropback. But ESPN’s Football Power Index still believes there’s a much smaller gap between these two teams playing Monday because of strength of schedule.
No team has played an easier schedule than the Patriots … and no team has played a harder schedule than the Giants. And on the snaps with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart on the field, the team’s EPA per play is 0.07, roughly tied with the Seahawks as 10th-most efficient.
Sunday.
Will 49ers left tackle Trent Williams be able to stop Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett?
We’re getting a Hall of Fame matchup in the trenches Sunday. Who has the edge? At each of their peaks, it might have been tough to say. But right now, Garrett is the clear answer.
The Cleveland edge rusher is well on his way to winning Defensive Player of the Year, and he is threatening the single-season sack record (22.5) with 18.0 already. Meanwhile, Williams’ pass protection numbers have slipped a little bit this season. After finishing first among tackles in pass block win rate in 2023 and second in 2024, his 2025 PBWR ranks 20th. The Browns will need Garrett to have success against Williams for a chance at upsetting the 49ers.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (30.2% rostered)
Lawrence has provided steady low-end QB1 production since Week 1, averaging 18.0 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t hit 300 passing yards yet this season, but that could change against a Titans defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is in a favorable spot here for managers who need QB.
Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans (28.4% rostered)
Higgins has quietly become a dependable fantasy option, emerging as Houston’s clear No. 2 receiver with at least seven targets in four of his past five games. He scored three touchdowns during that stretch and has averaged 12.8 fantasy points since Week 10. Now Higgins will get starting quarterback C.J. Stroud back against a Colts defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Devin Neal, RB, New Orleans Saints (27.6% rostered)
Neal is positioned to take over the Saints’ backfield after running back Alvin Kamara injured his knee in Week 12. Neal saw a season-high 12 touches against the Falcons and has increased his scrimmage yards in five straight games. New Orleans is likely to give the rookie a full workload to see what it has, and he draws a Dolphins defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
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Is Devin Neal a priority fantasy add for Week 13?
Daniel Dopp explains why Devin Neal is not a priority for fantasy rosters but is still a good backup RB in Week 13.
Chimere Dike, WR, Tennessee Titans (16.0% rostered)
Dike has emerged as Tennessee’s top receiving option with Calvin Ridley out for the season and Elic Ayomanor battling a hamstring injury. He led the team with seven targets in Week 12, turning them into 21.4 fantasy points (thanks in part to a punt return touchdown). Dike has had at least 16 fantasy points in three of his past five games despite the Titans’ struggling passing game. With strong target volume and added special teams upside, he’s a viable flex against Jacksonville, especially in deeper formats.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (15.6% rostered)
Strange returned from a monthlong hip injury in Week 12 and immediately reclaimed his role as the Jaguars’ top pass catcher, leading Jacksonville with 93 yards against the Cardinals. He has had at least 59 yards in three of his six games this season, and he is important to the Jaguars’ offense as a strong blocker. Strange is a low-end TE1 against the Titans.
Solak: Don’t be surprised if …
The Titans upset the Jaguars
Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has played the two best games of his career in the past two weeks. And they came against stiff competition in the Texans and Seahawks. Now, he gets a Jaguars defense that can get pressure but struggles to actually sack mobile quarterbacks like him.
So long as Ward avoids turnovers, the Titans’ offense should find points. On the other side of the ball, the defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat should slow down the Jaguars’ running game and force the ball into Lawrence’s hands.
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The Browns upset the 49ers
On a rainy and windy day in Cleveland, the elite Browns defense will be favored. This game might come down to who runs the football better, and while San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is getting handoffs at an elite clip, he isn’t breaking tackles or generating explosive runs like he once did. In sloppy conditions, Brock Purdy might also be prone to a turnover or two. This game will be decided by field position and special teams, with one big play late.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense look elite again
Defensively, the Bills are built to make you dink and dunk the football against their soft zone coverages — but that’s the preferred play style for Rodgers, who is set to return from a left wrist fracture. The Bills also have tackling issues, and every Steelers pass catcher is a tackle-breaking threat. And finally, Pittsburgh can run the ball with heavy personnel, which has been Buffalo’s kryptonite for years. Josh Allen had better score points, because Rodgers’ Steelers sure will.
Bowen: Key matchup to watch
Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. vs. Colts offensive tackle Braden Smith
Look for Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to scheme his fronts, creating one-on-one pass-rush matchups for Anderson in this key AFC South matchup. Anderson was relentless in the Texans’ Week 12 win over the Bills, recording 2.5 sacks and five pressures on Allen. That brought Anderson’s season totals to 10.5 sacks and 36 pressures, while his pass rush win rate sits at 24% (third highest in the NFL).
Smith has allowed six sacks this season, and his pass block win rate of 90.2% ranks 33rd among offensive tackles. Smith will be crucial in keeping the pocket clean for quarterback Daniel Jones, as his off-target rate climbs to 25% when pressured.
Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 13
UNDER 44.5 points in Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Indy’s offense has a floor, and that keeps this game slow. Jones has trended into a play-action dependent passer, while the Texans’ defense is built to kill that. It is third in completion rate allowed, second in yards allowed per pass attempt and second in opponent touchdown rate.
Stroud is back for Houston’s offense, but Indy’s pass coverage has improved with cornerback Sauce Gardner and the return of Charvarius Ward. Both defenses will squeeze on early downs while the offenses stall in the red zone, making this a clear under.
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Should fantasy managers be worried about Jonathan Taylor?
Field Yates and Mike Clay discuss their level of fantasy worry for Jonathan Taylor.
NFL Nation: QB questions
What’s the latest on C.J. Stroud’s return, and how have the Texans looked without him?
Stroud will return against the Colts on Sunday. It will be his first start in three games, so expect some rust in a major matchup with divisional implications. Fortunately for the Texans, they went 3-0 in the games Stroud missed, which kept them in playoff contention. Credit goes to their defense, which averaged 12.5 points against in the past two games. And don’t forget two game-winning drives by quarterback Davis Mills in the three-game stretch. — D.J. Bien-Aime, Texans reporter
Are the 49ers concerned about Brock Purdy’s two starts back from injury?
The short answer: Not really. The Niners and Purdy were pleased with how he fared against Arizona in his return, and though he threw three first-half interceptions against Carolina, coach Kyle Shanahan said he was fine with the decisions and Purdy was just a bit late on the throws. For his part, Purdy said he wasn’t «driving» the ball as well as he could. This week, he expounded on it after watching the film, noting that he needs to set his feet better and throw with more anticipation in order to eliminate some of those costly turnovers.
«It’s just reps and playing football again and getting back into it,» Purdy said. «But there’s also some good plays that I’ve made too. I can’t just say because I threw three picks in one half my timing and everything’s off. It’s give or take with all that.» — Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter
Could the Raiders look at other options under center for the final stretch?
Coach Pete Carroll did something uncharacteristic when he parted ways with two coordinators (Chip Kelly and Tom McMahon) in the span of 16 days. So at this stage of the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Raiders look at other options at quarterback if Geno Smith continues to pile up the interceptions.
For now, Smith’s job is safe. It’s worth seeing how Smith and the offense look under interim playcaller Greg Olson. Perhaps the move could get the 35-year-old quarterback on track during the final six games. Either way, the Raiders will need to take a serious look at the position in the offseason. Smith has regressed, and Las Vegas could be in a position to select one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2026 NFL draft. — Ryan McFadden, Raiders reporter
