Four Verts: Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory, Seahawks are still a contender, and Falcons are silver lining-less

Welcome back to the Four Verts column, which comes to you from unfamiliar territory, because the NFL’s reigning dynasty is in unfamiliar territory too. Plus, the loser of one of last Sunday’s mega clashes is going to be just fine, there’s no silver lining for one team, and just ask another how hard it is to go from top-five pick to consistent winner in just two years.

Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory

There are two truths right now with Kansas City. First: This team is good enough to get to the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is here. The offensive line is better. They can go on a run in the postseason and get back to the Super Bowl again.

However, the second truth is that they are 5-5, and on the outside looking in at the AFC playoffs this late in the season for the first time in the Mahomes era. They’re in third place in the AFC West and haven’t been as consistent as they normally are. If the season were to end today, the Chiefs would not be in the postseason, which has put the team in woefully unfamiliar territory.

It’s hard to even figure out how to discuss the Chiefs right now. Their standard of excellence had become so high that them being 8-2 or 9-1 at this point in the season felt like a given. There have been areas of this team that have performed well — really well actually. They still rank top three in points per drive (2.7, third in the NFL), first downs per drive (2.4, second), expected points added per play (0.13, third) and percentage of plays that go for a first down (32.6%). The defense has performed like an above-average unit this season, but they have had some real low moments this year, including their losses against Jacksonville and Buffalo.

Still, the baseline production is so strong up to this point, and this team is undoubtedly better than the one that was dismantled by the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year. Dropping five games up to this point doesn’t really match the down-to-down results that they’ve put together. There’s a chance that they turn this around and start winning the amount of games that their on-field performance should suggest, but 5-5 is still 5-5.

The fact that the Chiefs haven’t been in this spot under Mahomes makes it all the more fascinating. How they perform with their backs against the wall will be a new twist on the dominating legend that Mahomes and the Chiefs have built for themselves over the past seven years. If anyone can do it, it’s them — more specifically, this quarterback. Mahomes has had a few games that feel uncharacteristic as they try to figure out how to piece together this passing game, but he is still Patrick Mahomes and that absolutely has to count for something.

This isn’t inevitable, so don’t think I’m locking the Chiefs into the Super Bowl or anything …yet. Let’s take this one week at a time.

Seahawks are still as good as advertised

The Rams loss will be a bit of a ding toward the Seahawks’ chances of winning the NFC West, but it doesn’t change anything about their goals for the season and what’s attainable for them as Super Bowl contenders.

Sam Darnold had some really rough moments throwing against a defense that’s caused him to struggle over the past two seasons, but overall they should feel confident about their abilities to go on a run in the postseason. Enough things went their way where the loss against the Rams feels somewhat like a tie even though they’re down one in the standings.

Seattle’s defense deserves a lot of credit for how they played last week in Los Angeles. According to TruMedia, the Seahawks held the Rams to a success rate of just 34% and held them to an 18% third down conversion rate. Matthew Stafford completed just 15 of his 28 passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns, but due to an average starting field position of near midfield on every drive thanks to turnovers, the Rams were able to find themselves in a spot where they could squeak away.

Sam Darnold (14) likely won't have any games as bad as Sunday's loss to the Rams the rest of the way. The Seahawks are still very much a Super Bowl contender. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) — Sam Darnold (14) likely won’t have any games as bad as Sunday’s loss to the Rams the rest of the way. The Seahawks are still very much a Super Bowl contender. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

(Harry How via Getty Images)

While Darnold’s turnovers were destructive for the Seahawks’s chances of winning, there were a lot of strong moments for the passing game against a Rams defense that is among the best in the league this year. If you — AND YES I KNOW THIS SOUNDS ABSURD, BUT STAY WITH ME — take Darnold’s interceptions out of the equation, Seattle’s dropback game was able to complete 29 of 40 passing attempts for 8 total expected points added and a 49% completion percentage. That shows that they were able to have success through the air … until the interceptions started piling up. On Darnold’s four interceptions, Seattle lost an average of 5.5 points per interception, nearly a touchdown’s worth of value being lost over four plays on a per-play basis.

That is just way too damaging to power through, but the glass-half-full view is that four-interception games are very rare and it’s unlikely to happen again when these two teams face each other. Darnold has struggled against the Rams and their defensive coordinator Chris Shula dating back to the playoffs last season, when he was the starting quarterback for the Vikings. There were fewer destructive plays than last time, and the Seahawks were able to move the ball throughout the air fairly well.

Losing by two points against arguably the best team in the NFL despite having four turnovers is no real shame. There are still seven games left in the season, the Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league and their overall construction gives them a high-floor blueprint to get to the playoffs and win. One loss doesn’t change all that. Just keep stacking wins and don’t throw four interceptions again. Everything else is right there.

With Michael Penix Jr. out for season, there’s no silver lining for the Falcons

Put a bow on the 2025 Atlanta Falcons — and possibly the 2026 Falcons as well. With second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. going down for the year with ACL reconstruction surgery, the Falcons franchise has been put in limbo as they gather information about what to do in the near future. The timeline on Penix’s recovery will have him out until August next season, putting him behind the eight ball again and realistically decreasing his chances of becoming the long-term quarterback in Atlanta. There are plenty of franchises throughout the years who have found themselves in a similar spot as the Falcons, but very few who face an immediate future as bleak as this team does.

Penix’s first season as the Falcons’ starter was up and down, but ended in disaster as he faces yet another knee surgery, giving him his fifth season-ending injury dating back to college in 2018, and his third ACL injury in total. Based on his timeline and injury history, it’s going to be hard to count on him next season, which will potentially end his tenure as the Falcons starter unless he has a miraculously quick recovery that allows him to get ingratiated with what will likely be a new staff next season. Penix having a speedy recovery and returning faster than expected is about the best-scenario possible for the Falcons.

There will be an immense amount of pressure on Penix to heal because the Falcons traded their first-round pick to the Rams in exchange for the ability to draft Tennessee pass rusher James Pearce Jr. at the bottom of the first round last spring. If the draft were to end today, the Rams would be holding the eighth pick, which is only expected to rise to the top of the draft with Penix out for the season and Drake London set to miss some with a knee injury. Anyone who has seen this version of Kirk Cousins knows that their season is done, he just doesn’t have the arm strength anymore.

Getting rid of Cousins will be expensive as well, as the Falcons are slated to deal with $35 million of dead cap on his contract in some manner. Whether they split it between 2026 and 2027 has yet to be determined, but they won’t be able to access a good chunk of their cap space — again. No first-round pick, injured quarterback, shaky cap situation. This is about as bad a situation that can be built and will, realistically, take several years for Atlanta to snap out of.

Assuming the Falcons let go of head coach Raheem Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot, the new regime will be starting essentially from scratch … in 2027. Barring a miracle, this season is over for the Falcons and next year is looking just as bleak. All because this team foolishly decided to go “all in” over the past two years despite not having a roster of that quality. The half-teardown they did after trading Matt Ryan to the Colts has only left them in no man’s land, and now it looks like it’s time to go back to the drawing board with new folks in charge.

Chargers are cooked

It’s hard to find 7-4 teams with worse vibes than the Chargers right now. For a team that had tremendous hopes and expectations coming into the season, and still largely has control of its playoff path, it just feels like the Chargers have hit the wall. Once again, they’ve been destroyed with injuries and are down to the studs on the offensive line, and the defense just had a particularly rough game and clearly doesn’t have the depth yet to achieve the heights they want.

All of that was on full display in the Chargers’ 35-6 demolition at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their run defense was abysmal, Justin Herbert was banged up during the game causing Trey Lance to see his first action as a Charger, and it never felt like they had an opportunity to get into the game. The offensive line injuries continued to tank any ability they had to move the ball, and now the Chargers feel like they’re on uneven ground heading into the final portion of the season.

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To a degree, this faltering should be OK. Just 18 months ago, the Chargers turned in the fifth pick in the 2024 draft for Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt (who is great, but on injured reserve). It’s hard to turn the framework of a team picking top five into a team that can be a consistent winner in one year, or even two as the Chargers are finding out right now. Being in a tough battle against the Titans a few weeks ago doesn’t exactly scream “Super Bowl contender” and it’s going to take time to continue stacking depth that can survive the wave of injuries they’ve suffered, particularly on offense.

This is the curse of having a talented quarterback like Herbert and a head coach as good as Jim Harbaugh. They’re going to be competitive, they’re going to win more games and they may even hold onto their playoff standing as the season comes to an end. However, it’s just clear that they are still another offseason away, with hopefully much better health in the future. The Commanders find themselves in similar territory as a team that went from second overall pick to the NFC title game, but they still need to add talent to the depth.

The 2025 Chargers probably don’t have the horses left to get to where they need to be, but the long-term outlook for this team is still strong. You’d have to think getting back a fully healthy Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater and Omarion Hampton would be a significant game-changer for this team! Nevertheless, the Chargers’ injury curse continues and they’ll be facing a tough close to the season before resetting and reloading for a 2026 season.