This week’s college football playoff rankings reveal has Texas ranked No. 10 and would be the No. 10 seed in the CFP tournament. But that’s only if the playoffs started today. The Longhorns have three tough games ahead and UT’s record down the stretch will determine if it is a playoff team.
The Horns are currently only a 49% chance to make the CFP. That means the ESPN FPI computers don’t think Texas will win enough to get in. Indeed, Texas is a six point underdog this weekend in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs. UT will be an underdog to the Texas A&M Aggies too.
If Texas wins out, the Longhorns are in. That’s guaranteed. If Texas loses two of its final three games, the Longhorns are out. That’s guaranteed. But what if Texas wins two of the final three games? Texas would probably need some help. But the odds change slightly depending on which two games they would win.
ESPN Playoff Bracket Predictor tool, we took a lot at the odds to make the CFP with two wins. We tested all three scenarios to see if the odds change based on which opponent Texas falls to. If Texas has two SEC loses, the chances of making the SEC Championship Game are slim, so we calculated the odds without that remote complication.
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The difference is small, but if Texas loses a game every little bit helps.
Texas Football falls to Georgia
Georgia: Loss | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win
CFP Chances: 64%
Analysis: If the Longhorns lose to the Bulldogs in Athens, but beat Arkansas and Texas A&M, UT’s CFP chances are at 64%. Texas fans will be rooting for help in other games to bring that percentage higher.
Texas Football falls to Arkansas
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Loss | Texas A&M: Win
CFP Chances: 65%
Analysis: If the Longhorns beat powerhouses Georgia and A&M but somehow fall at home to Arkansas, UT’s CFP chances are actually about the best of the scenarios where Texas finishes the regular season with one more loss.
Texas Football falls to Texas A&M
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Loss
CFP Chances: 65%
Analysis: If the Longhorns lose to the Aggies to finish the season, UT’s CFP changes will similar to a loss to the Hogs, 65%
The best win of the final three would be against Georgia by a nose. The best plan for Texas though is to win out.
