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André Snellings
As per ESPN BET, Thunder point guard Ajay Mitchell (+750
) has the second-lowest odds for the Sixth Man of the Year award, trailing the Heat’s Jaime Jaquez Jr (+425) and leading Quentin Grimes (+1000) of the Knicks. At the season’s start, Mitchell was largely unnoticed, but his impressive performance in the opening month has made him a contender for the early-season award.
Should he be considered?
And is there any merit in betting on Mitchell for Sixth Man of the Year?
Let’s delve into the details.
In his initial 12 games, Mitchell has proven to be a strong scorer (17.2 PPG), a reliable all-round player (3.9 RPG, 3.9 APG), and a formidable 3-and-D option (1.8 SPG, 1.3 3PG) averaging 28.3 MPG, primarily coming off the bench. He transitioned to the starting lineup last week with Aaron Wiggins joining Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Nikola Topic and Kenrich Williams on the injured list, and in his initial four starts, he elevated his stats to 19.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.8 APG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.5 3PG in 31.3 MPG.
When utilizing the ESPN Fantasy Basketball scoring system as a singular metric for player output, Mitchell is presently averaging 33.8 fantasy PPG for the season. This surpasses last season’s Sixth Man of the Year, Payton Pritchard, who averaged 29.7 FPPG. Indeed, over the last decade of Sixth Man of the Year winners, only Lou Williams in 2018 (34.5) recorded a higher fantasy scoring average than Mitchell’s 33.8. So, based on historical data, Mitchell is undoubtedly producing at a level worthy of the accolade if he can sustain this performance throughout the season.
This leads to the first of two critical inquiries: Will he uphold this level of performance?
One reason for Mitchell’s prominent role this season is the abundance of injuries affecting the Thunder’s perimeter players. Williams, specifically, is a young All-Star who, upon his return, will absorb a significant portion of minutes and output. His anticipated return is within this month. Dort is another starting wing, and both Wiggins and Williams typically receive considerable bench minutes.
When factoring in the Thunder’s healthy perimeter players, including MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA steals leader Cason Wallace, two-time All-Defensive Team honoree Alex Caruso, and 3-point specialist Isaiah Joe, it becomes increasingly challenging to foresee how Mitchell will continue to secure the minutes and role essential to maintain his current performance level once the roster is back to full strength.
The second primary point of interest is: Are there other Sixth Man candidates generating output at or near Mitchell’s existing performance rate?
A key point of comparison is Jaquez—the current frontrunner per ESPN BET—who is delivering 17.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 5.2 APG, contributing to his impressive 38.0 FPPG.
While Jaquez is also part of a deep perimeter rotation for the Heat, presently only Tyler Herro is expected to return following an injury layoff, which may not occur until the end of 2025. Moreover, Jaquez possesses the versatility to play some power forward in addition to shooting guard and small forward, which should support his minutes and role even when Herro returns.
Conclusion: Mitchell is a decent bet, but Jaquez stands out as the superior option
Mitchell (+750) is currently excelling enough to contend for the Sixth Man of the Year award if he sustains this level throughout the season. However, concerns arise about whether his playing time and role will remain as significant once the Thunder recovers, which appears imminent. Additionally, there are other strong contenders for the award, led by present frontrunner Jaquez, who are performing at a higher level in the short term and have less competition for minutes with their teams.
Therefore, while there is some merit in wagering on Mitchell at the prevailing odds for the award, the greater value lies with betting on Jaquez. The NBA season is lengthy and injuries are an unfortunate regularity, meaning this narrative may shift many times over the coming months. Although I might take some chances on Mitchell, I would presently lean more toward betting on Jaquez.
