The Week 13 matchup slate for the 2025 NFL season kicks off with a thrilling lineup of Thanksgiving Day games, and we have everything you need for this holiday excitement. ESPN Research indicates that the average over/under point total of 51.2 marks a new high for Thanksgiving games over the last four decades. Get ready.
Before the three matchups take place, our NFL Nation insiders provide an in-depth look into each locker room, highlighting significant narratives and revisiting each team’s Thanksgiving history. ESPN Research shares optimistic statistics for all six participating teams, along with vital betting tips. Plus, analytics specialist Seth Walder shares daring forecasts, while fantasy analyst Eric Moody offers insights for fantasy football. The Football Power Index (FPI) provides game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody, and Walder — reveal their predicted final scores for the three games.
Let’s begin with the Packers and Lions, who will face off on Turkey Day for an NFL-record 23rd encounter.
Jump to a matchup:
GB-DET | KC-DAL | CIN-BAL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (48.5 O/U)
Updates on the Packers: They are entering as underdogs for the first time this season, having been favorites in each matchup leading into Week 13. The Packers have already secured two division victories, surpassing last season’s total when they were swept by both the Lions and Vikings while splitting with the Bears. — Rob Demovsky
Updates on the Lions: Detroit aims to avenge their season-opening 27-13 loss at Lambeau Field. Coach Dan Campbell’s squad eagerly anticipates another opportunity to challenge their NFC North rivals on Thanksgiving, where Detroit leads the all-time series against Green Bay 12-9-1. «We took a loss in Week 1, so this is a divisional game,» edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson proclaimed. «This is as critical as any regular-season game we’ll face.» — Eric Woodyard
Key Stat for the Packers: Their defense has been able to generate pressure 35% of the time this season, which ranks sixth in the league. This will be crucial against quarterback Jared Goff, who has seen his QBR drop by 69 points under pressure this season, the highest in the NFL.
Key Stat for the Lions: Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been phenomenal since joining the league in 2023 and could join an elite group with just one touchdown. Should Gibbs find the end zone, he would become the fifth player in NFL history to achieve 45 touchdowns (of any kind) within his first three seasons, joining Hall of Famers like Barry Sanders and Eric Dickerson. — ESPN Research
Packers | Lions
Fantasy Insight: Packers wide receiver Christian Watson is in an ideal situation against the Lions, having emerged as the most reliable option in an otherwise struggling Packers passing offense. He has recorded over 45 receiving yards in every game since returning from an injury and receives at least four targets weekly. Notably, Detroit is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers per game. Check Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting Insight: The Lions are 0-3 both outright and against the spread when the line is set between +3 and -3 this season. Meanwhile, the Packers have a 1-4 ATS record on the road this year, with their last four games surpassing the total. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s Prediction: Lions 34, Packers 24
Moody’s Prediction: Lions 30, Packers 27
Walder’s Prediction: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI Prediction: DET, 54% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Packers: Upsetting the Lions in 2023 remains in recent memory. Although the 1962 contest against the Lions stands out historically as the Packers’ only loss in a championship-winning season, the recent dramatic victory where they were 8.5-point underdogs seems to overshadow it as the Packers rallied for a 29-22 victory following a tumultuous start and claimed a playoff spot with a closing stretch of 6-2 after a 3-6 start. — Demovsky
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Lions: The Lions defeating the Bears 23-20 in 2024 was a significant breakthrough for Coach Campbell, ending a seven-year holiday win drought after three consecutive Thanksgiving losses. This victory commenced with a stellar 11-1 start to the season. Quarterback Goff even enjoyed a «bucket list» moment, relishing a turkey leg after throwing for 221 yards and two touchdowns. — Woodyard
Extra Notes: Analysis on Hutchinson’s contract extension… Do the Packers have a viable dual-threat option? … Gibbs racked up 264 yards in the Lions’ OT win … Parsons achieves his fifth consecutive 10-sack season
1:05
Is Dan Campbell’s offensive playcalling hurting Lions?
Rex Ryan discusses the need for veteran help with clock management from Lions coach Dan Campbell.
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: KC -3 (52.5 O/U)
Updates on the Chiefs: The Chiefs may have turned their season around with a comeback victory over the Colts, keeping their postseason hopes alive. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows that their Sunday effort must be supported with a solid performance in Dallas. «We have to build on this momentum,» Mahomes stated. «Facing the Cowboys is tough; they can put up points and have numerous elite players. It’s crucial to bounce back quickly. Playing on Thanksgiving will be exciting.» — Nate Taylor
Updates on the Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense has delivered their best performances this season in recent wins against the Raiders and Eagles. Now, they face Mahomes. Although some believe the Chiefs’ offense is struggling, they still remain within the top 10 for both yards and passing. «You must have all your details right against a player like Patrick Mahomes,» defensive tackle Kenny Clark commented. «He is elite. Keeping him contained in the pocket is vital since that’s when he excels.» — Todd Archer
Key Stat for the Chiefs: They snapped a streak of failings in one-score games by defeating the Colts in overtime, having trailed by 11 points in the fourth quarter. Despite being recognized with an NFL-record 12-0 record in such games last year, Kansas City was 0-5 in them this season. — ESPN Research
Key Stat for the Cowboys: Their offense performs best when establishing the run and operating through play-action. Quarterback Dak Prescott boasts the finest QBR on play-action snaps this season and is tied for the most touchdown passes (13) during such plays. The Chiefs’ defense has yielded the highest completion rate (82%) and third-most yards per attempt (9.9) against play-action. — ESPN Research
Bold Prediction: Mahomes will achieve a QBR of 90-plus for the first time this season. The Chiefs excel offensively against zone coverage (0.27 EPA per play), contrasting strikingly with their 0.10 against man coverage, while the Cowboys run zone on 72% of snaps (second highest in the NFL). — Walder
Injury Updates: Chiefs | Cowboys
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Fantasy Insight: The Chiefs are likely to rely heavily on Mahomes and their receiving corps against a Cowboys defense that has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. This situation benefits players like Rashee Rice. Additionally, managers in need of options may also look to Xavier Worthy, who averaged 7.9 fantasy points despite receiving at least seven targets in three of his last four contests. Check Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting Insight: The Cowboys have an impressive 4-1 record against the spread as underdogs this season, whereas the Chiefs are struggling at 1-4 ATS on the road, including 0-3 in their last three outings. Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s Prediction: Chiefs 20, Cowboys 13
Moody’s Prediction: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
Walder’s Prediction: Chiefs 36, Cowboys 28
FPI Prediction: KC, 63.6% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Chiefs: Notable is running back Marcus Allen passing Walter Payton in 1996. Although the Chiefs may lack a distinct Thanksgiving tradition, this game saw Allen surpass fellow Hall of Famer Walter Payton in total career rushing touchdowns in Detroit, marking his 111th touchdown during a comeback win over the Lions. — Taylor
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Cowboys: Backup quarterback Clint Longley’s remarkable performance against Washington in 1974 stands out. With Roger Staubach out due to injury in the third quarter, the Cowboys were trailing 23-17 with under 30 seconds left when Longley threw a game-winning 50-yard touchdown pass to Drew Pearson. — Archer
Extra Notes: Pacheco aims for a return against the Cowboys … Guyton (ankle) may sit out vs. Chiefs … Could the Cowboys’ win signal a playoff push? … Jones leads a late defensive charge … Prescott’s initiative saves a Cowboys executive
1:23
Why Stephen A. doesn’t consider Chiefs game a must-win for Cowboys
Stephen A. Smith shares his viewpoint on the implications of a potential Cowboys loss against the Chiefs.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: BAL -7 (52.5 O/U)
Updates on the Bengals: Maintaining a strong turnover margin is essential for success in the AFC North, as evidenced by their record of 13-14 since 2021 in division games. Cincinnati boasts a plus-12 turnover margin in victories compared to minus-13 in losses. This trend is also crucial for stopping Baltimore, according to safety Geno Stone, who remarked, «The team that takes the ball away will prevail.» — Ben Baby
Updates on the Ravens: Running back Derrick Henry is on the verge of surpassing Jim Brown for 11th place on the all-time NFL rushing leaderboard, needing just 18 more rushing yards. The Bengals’ defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game (156), a favorable matchup for Henry, who averages 86.4 rushing yards with four touchdowns over his last five games versus Cincinnati. — Jamison Hensley
Key Stat for the Bengals: Running back Chase Brown recorded his fifth consecutive game with over 100 scrimmage yards last week, currently the longest active streak in the NFL after he failed to reach that mark in the first six games of the season.
Key Stat for the Ravens: Quarterback Lamar Jackson, despite a 1-2 record in prime-time games this season, holds an impressive career record of 21-7 in such games. In prime time, Steve Young is the only quarterback since the 1970 merger with a better record (minimum of 15 starts). — ESPN Research
Bold Prediction: Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is set to record at least 50 receiving yards for just the second time this season, as 27% of targets against Cincinnati’s defense are directed to opposing tight ends, the highest proportion in the league. — Walder
Injury Updates: Bengals | Ravens
1:09
Saturday: If Burrow is healthy, he should play
Jeff Saturday emphasizes that the Bengals shouldn’t rest a healthy Joe Burrow regardless of their playoff prospects.
Fantasy Insight: The Bengals’ defense has proven to be a fantasy goldmine for competitors throughout the season. Managers with Jackson, Henry, and Andrews are in a favorable position, given Cincinnati’s defensive rankings, allowing the highest fantasy points to quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting Insight: The past five meetings between these teams have all gone over the total. Overs have hit 20-8 in Ravens games since last season, boasting the highest rate in the NFL (7-4 this season). Read more. — ESPN Research
Maldonado’s Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
Moody’s Prediction: Ravens 31, Bengals 28
Walder’s Prediction: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI Prediction: BAL, 68% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Bengals: Their sole appearance in 2010 stands out. The Bengals rank among four teams with a singular Thanksgiving game in franchise history, suffering a 26-10 loss at the Jets, featuring numerous future Hall of Famers such as Terrell Owens and LaDainian Tomlinson. — Baby
Memorable Thanksgiving game for the Ravens: The infamous sideline incident involving Jacoby Jones and Mike Tomlin in 2013 defines their Thanksgiving game history. The Ravens last played on Thanksgiving when they edged the Steelers 22-20 during a game marred by one of the most controversial plays ever, where Tomlin unintentionally obstructed Jones’ runback for a touchdown. Tomlin was subsequently fined $100,000. “It’s just one of those moments,” Tomlin commented years later. — Hensley
Extra Notes: Jackson missed a walk-through due to a toe injury … Chase expressed remorse for spitting: ‘What I did was wrong’ … Bengals’ coach expects Burrow will suit up Thursday
