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Sam Tighe
It’s long been said that, over the course of a 38-game Premier League season, a team’s luck will even out. As the old adage goes, «you play every team twice,» and that’s true, but refereeing decisions, injuries and managerial changes can each have a huge impact on a club’s season — either positively or negatively.
So, with that in mind, we thought we’d take a nonscientific look at which Premier League teams have been favored by fortune or fallen foul of it. There’s no magic formula for something as ethereal and fleeting as luck, but here’s how some have fared in each of these three key areas:
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1) Injury issues: This is not about a couple of injuries. We’re looking at situations where multiple star players were missing or entire position groups were out. After all, if you’re lucky enough to play Chelsea without star player Cole Palmer, or catch Arsenal without Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard, then your experience of playing them will be very different to that of another team.
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2) Managerial changes: The «new manager bounce» theory suggests that it’s unlucky to be the first team up against a refreshed side that have just sacked a struggling boss — although in one case, sacking the manager made a team demonstrably worse.
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3) Confirmed refereeing / VAR errors: This is more tangible as there have been six confirmed errors this season so far, so we’ve looked at who came out on the right and wrong side of each one.
After looking at these areas, the results may go some way to explaining why some clubs have performed above or below expectations, adding context to the 11 Premier League gameweeks we’ve seen so far.
Injury issues
LUCKY: They’ve faced teams with a lot of injuries
Liverpool won their first five Premier League games on the spin, but the prevailing narrative around that run was that they were lucky to do so as their performances weren’t really matching up and they relied on a lot of late goals. Perhaps one factor in that fortuitous run was opponents’ injury issues, as they faced some severely undercooked teams.
Indeed, they kicked off the campaign with a 4-2 win over AFC Bournemouth, who were missing so many midfielders they could barely put a functioning unit together. Two weeks later, Liverpool won 1-0 at Anfield against an Arsenal side not only missing Saka and Ødegaard, but that then saw key center back William Saliba limp off after only five minutes.
The Reds are also one of a number of clubs who have had the benefit of playing against a Chelsea side without Palmer, although they lost the game 2-1 in the last minute anyway.
Forest have also benefitted from some injury luck too, although you might struggle to believe it given their league position of 19th. They opened up the season with a 3-1 win over a Brentford side who were missing talismanic midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard, then a month later lost 3-0 to an Arsenal side missing Saka and Ødegaard.
They were given a golden chance to beat Chelsea after the October international break, as the Blues were missing Palmer and Enzo Fernández and had to limit Moisés Caicedo to 45 minutes, but still lost 3-0.
If only they’d managed to convert more of their lucky situations into actual points.
UNLUCKY: They’ve had a lot of injuries
Arsenal’s position at the top of the Premier League table is made all the more impressive by the fact that manager Mikel Arteta has been without several key players for portions of the opening stretch. The Gunners lost their first big game of the season 1-0 away to Liverpool, but that was hardly surprising given they had to do without Saka, Ødegaard and Saliba.
They also faced Manchester City without Ødegaard and got just 45 minutes out of Saka, who was recovering from the problem that kept him out of the Liverpool clash. They faced a similar situation away to Crystal Palace, only it was Saliba who could only manage 45 minutes. Then, just before the November international break, they faced Sunderland at the Stadium of Light without a recognized striker, as Viktor Gyökeres joined Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus in the treatment room and left Mikel Merino up front as a makeshift center forward.
Five losses in their past six league games have left Fulham hovering precariously above the relegation zone. Questions are starting to be raised about how, and why, this has happened — and the truth is that it’s down to a decent portion of it is bad luck when it comes to injuries.
Marco Silva has had to battle through several games this season with no recognized striker at all, as both Raúl Jiménez and Rodrigo Muniz have been injured. They’ve also had major defensive issues to contend with: left back Antonee Robinson has been mostly absent, while center back Joachim Andersen limped off in the 42nd minute of the 1-0 home loss to Arsenal, meaning the club’s entire first-choice backline and midfield general Saša Lukić were not on the pitch to finish the game.
The Cottagers have been one of the worst injury-affected sides in the league this season — and to rub salt in the wound, we’ll be revisiting them in the VAR section later on, too.
Finally, Chelsea have battled serious injury problems already this season and have done remarkably well to grind out results anyway. While it’s true they have a massive squad — and therefore should be better equipped to absorb absentees — they were dealt an impossible hand by the scheduling of the summer’s Club World Cup, with only a few weeks of preseason training.
The Blues been hit particularly hard in two areas: central defense and central midfield. Palmer has missed eight league games so far this season, Romeo Lavia has missed seven, while Dário Essugo has undergone surgery on his thigh and been largely absent as a result. This has stretched the club to the limit in the center, and it’s impressive that they managed to beat Nottingham Forest 3-0 without all of the above and Fernández.
Meanwhile, by the end of their gritty 2-1 win over Liverpool, all but one of their center backs were injured: That’s Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Acheampong and Benoît Badiashile.
Managerial changes
Through 11 games so far, there have been four managerial changes: Two have been made by Nottingham Forest, one by West Ham, and one by Wolves, who are yet to play a game with new man Rob Edwards at the helm.
Logic would suggest that means three teams have had the misfortune of colliding with the fabled «new manager bounce» — but that’s not actually true, as one of these changes only served to make matters worse.
LUCKY: They’ve faced a team in a managerial crisis
Forest replaced Nuno Espirito Santo, who was beloved by the fans and players, with former Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou after three games. It created an immediate downturn in atmosphere and a playing-style crisis, meaning Arsenal were actually fortunate to be next up. The Gunners hammered Forest 3-0.
Because they are such a mess, just 39 days and five Premier League games later, Forest sacked Postecoglou and brought in Sean Dyche. The former Everton and Burnley manager began his Forest career with a visit to Bournemouth and lost 2-0, so we’re considering them lucky to have faced a team in such a state.
UNLUCKY: They fell foul of the ‘new manager bounce’
However, one club did struggle from an opponent’s switch of manager. West Ham moved quickly to appoint Nuno after Forest dispensed with him, and he immediately delivered a draw away to Everton. While that doesn’t seem too impressive on paper, it was their first point for a month, so the Toffees can feel aggrieved they were first up for Nuno.
Confirmed VAR errors
LUCKY: They’ve got away with some decisions
UNLUCKY: They’ve been punished by VAR unfairly
VAR was brought in to remove officiating mistakes from the game, but sadly some still creep through. In fact, it’s only made it more infuriating when one does, as referees are now given multiple chances to get the call right.
Six VAR errors have been confirmed by the KMI (key match incident) review panel this season. They are as follows:
LUCKY: AFC Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Liverpool
– AFC Bournemouth should have opened up the campaign with an early red card, as Marcos Senesi’s hand denied Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike a clear goal-scoring chance in the 13th minute. That said, Liverpool went on to win 4-2.
LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Fulham
– Fulham took the lead against local rivals Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in August thanks to a wonderful goal from Josh King, only for it to be incorrectly ruled out on a VAR review for a foul in the buildup. The Cottagers lost 2-0.
LUCKY: Everton
UNLUCKY: Wolves
– Wolves’ Hugo Bueno was tripped inside the box in the 71st minute against Everton and it should have been ruled a penalty. They were 3-1 down at the time and went on to lose 3-2.
LUCKY: Brentford
UNLUCKY: Manchester United
– Manchester United were rightly stunned when Brentford’s Nathan Collins was only shown a yellow card for pulling Bryan Mbeumo back inside the box, not a red. It was the 72nd minute and United were 2-1 down; they went on to lose 3-1.
LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Brighton
– Brighton & Hove Albion should have been awarded a penalty at Stamford Bridge when Chelsea defender Malo Gusto produced a high boot challenge on Yankuba Minteh in the box. It mattered little in the end, though, as the Seagulls went on to win.
LUCKY: Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Crystal Palace
– AFC Bournemouth’s Marcos Senesi got away with another one in October, when his last man challenge on Crystal Palace’s Ismaïla Sarr was ruled a yellow on the field, but should have been a red. The Eagles were 2-0 down at the time, but roared back to 3-3 regardless.
CONCLUSION
While this is no exact science, it does add vital context to this opening stretch of Premier League games.
Liverpool’s early winning run was helped in part by playing against teams missing key players, while Fulham have been besieged by injuries and misfortune, which goes some way to explaining why they’re hovering just above the drop zone.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have had it both ways: A VAR error has helped them to an extra three points, but they’ve more than earned their place towards the top of the table given how many important absences they’ve had to navigate.
We’ll check in again after another third of the season to see how things have changed.
