Making difficult lineup choices each week can be the most demanding aspect of the fantasy football experience. When you’re conflicted between two comparable players and simply cannot decide who to play, choose the player with the better matchup.
Ah, but precisely how does one figure out the top (and bottom) weekly matchups?
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Quarterbacks
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Field Yates: Bo Nix is a top-10 QB option in Week 13
Field Yates discusses why Bo Nix ranks among the top-10 quarterbacks against the Commanders in Week 13.
Matchups spotlight: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Washington Commanders). He benefits from the dual advantage of being well-rested after his bye week and taking on one of the most advantageous matchups for his position. Throughout this season, seven quarterbacks returning from a bye have encountered a top-8 matchup. On average, those quarterbacks accumulated 20.0 fantasy points, or 4.6 more than their average scores prior to that week. Nix is nearly a 20-point quarterback — averaging 18.0 fantasy points — and he is up against the defense that allows the highest points per pass attempt this season (0.60).
Other favorable options: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans); Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers); Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions, Thursday).
Matchup to steer clear of: Jared Goff, Lions (vs. Packers, Thursday). In the rematch of their initial encounter in Week 1, where he only posted 10.90 fantasy points, Goff finds himself up against one of the league’s top defenses on a short week. The Packers have allowed just one game of 20-plus points to a quarterback throughout the season (Dak Prescott, 30.96 in Week 4), and recently they restricted Jalen Hurts to 12.02 points (Week 10) and made Bryce Young and J.J. McCarthy struggle (totaling 3.46 points combined in Weeks 9 and 12).
Sunday matchup to evade: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston Texans). The Texans stand as the sole team that has not permitted a quarterback to surpass 20 fantasy points against them this season.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (vs. New York Giants). Although he didn’t have a standout performance last week (11.1 fantasy points) with Rhamondre Stevenson’s return to action, Henderson’s utilization statistics at least show promise for his fantasy upside for the remainder of the season. The rookie started, participated in 64% of the offensive snaps, and garnered 21 total touches in a favorable matchup, threefold compared to Stevenson. Given these levels, Henderson should be capable of taking advantage of another excellent matchup against a Giants squad that has conceded an average of 38.6 fantasy points to its opponents’ leading two running backs over the past five weeks.
Other favorable options: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Atlanta Falcons); RJ Harvey, Broncos (at Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday). He has seen a decline in performance after a strong start, averaging just 12.5 fantasy points over the last seven weeks following a 20.7 average in the first five weeks. Moreover, Williams has accumulated 47 fewer scrimmage yards in his past six games (478) compared to his first five (525), but this is more about the matchup than his own play. The Chiefs have faced remarkable running backs like James Cook III (Week 9) and Jonathan Taylor (Week 12) recently and limited them to a combined 22.1 fantasy points.
Sunday matchup to avoid: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Los Angeles Rams). The Rams have permitted only six running backs to score double-digit fantasy points against them this season, the lowest in the league.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals (at Buccaneers). Marvin Harrison Jr.’s situation (appendectomy) affects Wilson’s fantasy viability, but even if Harrison can play, he’s unlikely to slide back into his old role (78% of snaps, 33 routes run per game). Furthermore, Wilson has excelled in filling in for Harrison the past two weeks, ranking third in fantasy points (55.3) and sixth in target share (32.4%) among wide receivers. This matchup offers opportunities for both players, as the Buccaneers have allowed five performances of 15-plus fantasy points in the last three weeks. Zyon McCollum has been among the weakest cornerbacks this season (26.2 Target EPA, according to Next Gen Stats, second-worst at the position), while injuries may potentially sideline Jamel Dean and/or Benjamin Morrison.
Other options to consider: Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars (at Titans); Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (vs. San Francisco 49ers); Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (at Pittsburgh Steelers).
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Matchup to avoid: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (at Philadelphia Eagles, Friday). He hasn’t been nearly the same player since the team’s Week 5 bye. Odunze has averaged only 9.1 fantasy points with a mere 44% catch rate, both of which fall short of teammates DJ Moore (11.1, 56%) and Colston Loveland (10.9, 81%) during that time. Odunze has encountered a good number of favorable matchups in that period, but this one certainly isn’t one of them. The Eagles have limited wide receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points per target this season (1.47) and have been particularly tough on No. 1 receivers the past two weeks, restricting Amon-Ra St. Brown (Week 11) and CeeDee Lamb (Week 12) to a combined 17.7 points on 23 targets.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday night). Continue to exploit the Bengals in tight end matchups, as they are by far the top choice in that department. Cincinnati has yielded the highest fantasy points per game (22.8), Adjusted FPA (+9.4) and points per target (2.25) to that position, as well as leading the league in those same metrics over the last five weeks (23.7, +10.3, 2.37). An opposing tight end has scored at least 10.7 points against the Bengals in every one of their past seven games.
Sunday matchup to consider: Chig Okonkwo, Titans (vs. Jaguars). Opponents’ leading tight ends have averaged 17.3 fantasy points against the Jaguars in their last eight games.
Matchup to sidestep: Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders). The Raiders’ defense has faced only 5.6 tight end targets per game (the fifth fewest), but they’ve also restricted the position to the eighth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.67). Gadsden appears to be a touchdown-dependent option considering the matchup, as the Chargers are among the largest favorites of the week (-9.5) in a match with one of the lowest over/under totals (41.5).
