Penn State is 3-6 on the season, with several heartbreaking losses during their current 6-game skid. But according to many advanced metrics, the Lions are actually a good (not great) team.
In order to “guarantee” a bowl game, the Lions must go 6-6 on the season. Bowls are typically reserved for teams that have at least 6 wins to their name, though depending on the year, some 5-7 teams do make a bowl berth.
So with 3 games left in the season, can Penn State close the season strong and make the post-season?
First up will be a game at Michigan State. The Spartans are also 3-6, and are also winless in the Big Ten so far. Despite it being a road game, the Lions are currently sitting as 7.5-point favorites, and are given a 79.3% chance to win the game. This would, of course, be the first necessary domino to fall in order to even think about a bowl game.
Following this week’s game against the Spartans, the Lions welcome Nebraska for their last home game of the season. The Huskers have had a few close games go their way for once, and are 7-3 on the year, with 4 Big Ten wins to their name. Yet the Lions are currently sitting with a 67.5% chance to beat Big Red on Senior Day. This may be the single largest hurdle left toward bowl eligibility, assuming the Lions can beat MSU.
Lastly, PSU heads on the road to take on Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have been bouncing back and forth with .500 this year, and are 5-5 at the moment. Despite it being a road game, and being Rutgers’ Senior Day, Penn State is again favored, and being given a 77.5% chance to win.
In a binary situation, wherein one team must win and one team must lose, all of those chances to win would lead to the Lions going 3-0 in their last three games. However, fun with statistics actually implies that the Lions would go 2.24-0.76 in the last three games, which would “round” to 2-1.
Again, I think it likely that the Nebraska game is the biggest chance for the Lions to stumble down the stretch. That game got a little easier with the season-ending injury to quarterback Dylan Raiola, but Matt Rhule still has the Huskers playing well.
What do you think? Can Penn State go 3-0 in the last three weeks and make a bowl game? The team played hard against Indiana but came up just short – was that the final straw for them mentally? Or will they shake it off and close the season strong.
