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Jeff Legwold
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos have accomplished much to achieve a record of 14-3, securing the AFC’s top seed heading into the NFL playoffs. However, as they prepare for their second straight playoff run under Sean Payton, one topic has dominated their discussions.
«We’ve been emphasizing turnovers, turnovers, turnovers,» stated Broncos quarterback Bo Nix.
As Denver moves through their bye week in preparation for hosting an AFC divisional round game next weekend, generating turnovers is at the forefront of their strategy. Despite their remarkable defense, which claimed a franchise-high 68 sacks and secured the best red zone defense in the NFL, the Broncos find themselves with a turnover margin of minus-3, ranking them tied for 19th in the league. They managed to recover only four fumbles and register ten interceptions.
However, there are signs of change in their turnover fortunes, as they forced four turnovers in their last two outings, including a pick-six by nickel back Ja’Quan McMillian during a regular-season finale win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Nik Bonitto noted post-game, «He [McMillian] was frustrated with the defense all week, pushing us about getting takeaways, even showing us a video compilation of our takeaways from the last three seasons. … We were overdue for a few.»
Payton has been using plenty of statistics in their talks regarding turnovers. He pointed out that since 2000, only one team – the 2021 Los Angeles Rams – has won the Super Bowl with a negative turnover margin in the playoffs. The Rams were minus-2 across four games that postseason, yet their situation was unique.
In Payton’s analysis, teams boasting the best turnover margins during playoffs have won the Super Bowl 13 times. Those with the second-best margins have claimed the title five times, and the third best has crowned three champions.
That indicates that 84% of the last 25 Super Bowl winners have ranked among the top three in playoff turnover margins. The exceptions being the 2021 Rams, 2019 Chiefs (tied for fourth), 2018 Patriots (tied for sixth), and 2017 Eagles (tied for fifth).
«We discuss it consistently, looking for tips, getting deflections, stripping the ball, and rallying to the play,» said Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen. «The main focus is to position ourselves well and execute our tasks properly. Good defense leads to positive outcomes.»
Denver’s unfortunate fumble recovery stats are even more puzzling in light of their potent pass rush. Having recorded a franchise record of 68 sacks this season, merely four fumble recoveries in 17 games highlights a disconnect.
«It simply doesn’t add up,» Bonitto commented.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph expressed that the Broncos need to «target the elbow, attack the ball more» when facing opposing quarterbacks, admitting that their performance in this area hasn’t met expectations this year.
Throughout the league, some personnel executives observing the Broncos suggest that their strategy of containing quarterbacks by pressuring from multiple angles may inadvertently diminish their turnover production. Without adequate space to escape, quarterbacks often secure the ball sooner than they would prefer.
Though this theory holds some weight, Payton continues to urge for increased takeaways. The team dedicates several practice sessions to drills aimed at dislodging the football. Joseph contends that the primary objective for the defense remains restricting the opposition’s offensive output on each play; turnovers are a beneficial bonus.
«You must be well-positioned and succeed in crucial downs,» emphasized Joseph. «While turnovers have been elusive … our focus should be on maintaining quality play. … I’m not chasing turnovers. What matters is tackling, leverage, and performing their roles effectively. There is a delicate balance between pursuing turnovers and playing sound football.»
«Winning on third downs counts as a turnover. We’re second in third down efficiency. We rank first in red zone defense. For me, those are critical elements of football and defensive play.»
