Will the last NBA star eligible for awards turn out the lights?
As we approach the midpoint of the NBA regular season — on Thursday, the Atlanta Hawks will become the first team to reach 41 games — the league’s rule requiring 65 qualifying games for the biggest individual awards is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
With three 2024-25 All-NBA picks already out of the mix (Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Williams) and Giannis Antetokounmpo also on the verge of missing too many games, this year’s awards could have a very different look. All-NBA in particular is meaningful because of its impact on eligibility for supermax criteria. due to their impact on eligibility for supermax criteria.
Last season, Cade Cunningham (All-NBA third team) and Evan Mobley (both Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA second team) triggered escalators that increased their rookie extensions to 30% of the cap rather than the 25% that would otherwise be the maximum. We’ll keep an eye on similar situations while running through the current leaders, contenders and long shots for each of the NBA’s most prestigious individual honors — for now.
Curry is the only player in this group with an All-NBA selection to his credit. And the pool of first-timers should only grow as additional players suffer injuries that knock them out of contention.
The player to watch from a financial standpoint is Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren, who would be eligible for the 30% max criteria as a restricted free agent next summer if he makes All-NBA. Rarely is that provision relevant for free agents, but Duren opted against signing an extension before the October deadline and has now increased his value dramatically with a breakthrough fourth season. Nobody has more at stake from this year’s awards.
Naturally, Duren is currently sidelined with an ankle sprain, though he’s expected to miss only a week and previously had just four non-qualifying games.
Towns becomes an interesting candidate as injuries knock the NBA’s top centers out of qualification. Although All-NBA balloting is now positionless, voters might seek to balance their lineups, and Towns is the top big man on track to qualify for awards.
The first team will have a very different look due to injuries. Of last year’s five picks, Tatum is out due to his Achilles rupture, while Jokic (hyperextended left knee) will have a difficult time qualifying and Antetokounmpo can miss only one more game the rest of the season. (Antetokounmpo has only sat out 14 games thus far, but two of the games he suited up don’t count because he left early due to injury.)
Wembanyama’s calf strain sidelined him for 12 games of the 17 that the NBA’s eligibility criteria allow. Last weekend’s absence following a knee hyperextension made 14, and Wembanyama remains day-to-day with knee soreness. (He’s also used up one of the two qualifying games with between 15 and 20 minutes played while on a minutes restriction after his absence.) I’m no longer projecting him to be eligible.
The good news is Doncic is back in the mix after injuries ended his All-NBA first team streak last season. He and Gilgeous-Alexander are the easiest picks if eligible. I’ve gone with Brunson and Cunningham on the assumption voters will reward winning, but Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell have strong cases in their own right. It’s doubtful that voters will reward so many guards, which gave Brown the edge for my last spot.
Historically, Coach of the Year has tended to reward a combination of exceeding expectations and overall team success. That naturally points to Bickerstaff: Despite his Pistons not even being a trendy pick as the up-and-coming young team in the East (Atlanta and Orlando were), they’re atop the conference.
If Detroit finishes first in the East, Bickerstaff is probably a layup pick. However, simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index still show the Knicks about as likely to finish in first place. That could open things up for Johnson, whose Spurs are in the wide-open fight for second in the West.
Nobody has outperformed expectations this season more than the Suns, but naturally, that’s a bit easier to do for a team that was in the lottery last year. Still, a Phoenix playoff berth would make Ott a strong contender. If media actually voted for the best coach, Daigneault and Spoelstra would be favorites, but their teams won’t likely exceed expectations enough to win the award.
This feels a bit like voters weren’t paying close attention to Avdija’s surge in the second half of last season, when he averaged 23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 5.2 APG. Compared to that, Avdija’s scoring and assists are both up as he’s taken on a point forward role amidst the Blazers’ backcourt injuries, but less remarkably so.
I’d be more likely to reward George, who rated below-replacement by my wins above replacement player metric a year ago and now rates as an above-average starter. Even within the season, George has taken a leap, averaging 27.7 PPG in December — albeit with the help of 44% 3-point shooting that may be challenging to maintain.
Besides George, the other players who have truly improved their performance the most are in their second year, which voters don’t typically like to reward. (No NBA sophomore has won Most Improved since Monta Ellis in 2006-07.) Johnson’s candidacy might get a boost if the Hawks move on from Trae Young and turn their offense over to him.
It’s amusing that the co-betting favorite for the Sixth Man award (Alexander-Walker) has started the vast majority of the season. When the Hawks have been at full strength on the perimeter, Alexander-Walker has come off the bench, filling in as a starter primarily in place of the injured Trae Young.
Although Alexander-Walker would be a strong choice for the award, averaging a career-high 20.3 PPG and serving as an on-ball stopper, I’m going to bet against him ultimately qualifying. After all, Alexander-Walker can (and has) fill in at any of the three perimeter spots. He also might just force his way into the starting five with his play. Atlanta is 14-14 in Alexander-Walker’s starts and 1-6 with him as a reserve.
Black is in a similar spot, with his best production (19.2 PPG) coming in 14 starts. Given the strength of Orlando’s starting five, Black won’t likely usurp a spot, but he, too, fills in at multiple positions. That makes Jaquez (who leads all current qualifiers with 16.5 PPG), Reid (a career-high 14.5 PPG for the 2023-24 winner) and Sheppard (13.5 PPG and 3.4 APG) the safest combo of production and eligibility.
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Cooper Flagg gets up really high on this slam
Cooper Flagg explodes to the rim and hammers home a high-flying dunk.
In many years, Knueppel would be the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. He’s averaging 19.3 PPG while shooting 43% from 3-point range and smashing records for fastest to various rookie long-distance milestones. Meanwhile, Queen would have been the clear leader a year ago, averaging 14 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 4.9 APG in 23 starts with above-average efficiency. Unfortunately, this is no ordinary rookie class.
After a slow start playing out of position at point guard, Flagg averaged 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 4.8 APG in December while shooting 54% from the field and filling out the box score on defense. He’s now the heaviest favorite for any individual award at DraftKings with minus-550 odds.
Advanced metrics predictably have Wembanyama as the most impactful defender in the NBA on a per-possession basis. There’s not much consensus on No. 2, with several members of the Thunder splitting credit for their top-ranked defense. Holmgren is the safest choice, which explains why he actually has the lowest odds at DraftKings factoring in the likelihood for Wembanyama failing to qualify. But things are wide-open enough that any number of other candidates could emerge between now and April.
Because Wembanyama was not eligible for awards last season, whether he wins Defensive Player of the Year or makes an All-NBA team actually has no impact on his rookie extension. Wembanyama’s eligibility for the 30% max will be determined by the 2026-27 season, since back-to-back awards are required to guarantee qualification heading into the last season of a player’s rookie contract.
Incidentally, winning Defensive Player of the Year would make Holmgren eligible for up to 30% of the cap on his rookie extension. However, the deal Holmgren signed last July does not include an escalator, so he is locked in at 25% of the cap.
Jokic’s left knee injury upended what looked like a two-player race for MVP between last season’s top two finishers. Although Jokic finished behind Gilgeous-Alexander in the first installment of the MVP straw poll by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, DraftKings had Jokic as a narrow favorite before the Nuggets star hyperextended his knee on Dec. 29.
Now, Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite to repeat, which would actually mark a first: the leader in the first straw poll has yet to go on to win the award.
It’s not yet official that Jokic is out of the mix, but qualifying will be a challenge. He’d have to return to the Nuggets’ lineup by Jan. 30 — days after the four-week mark at which he’s scheduled to be reevaluated — and not miss a game the rest of the season.
That leaves Doncic with the second-best odds for MVP. He’s performed at that level individually, but I’m skeptical of the Lakers’ chances of remaining in the top six, which is probably a necessary bar for him to threaten Gilgeous-Alexander. Their 21-11 record has been propped up by an undefeated record in clutch games. The Lakers’ minus-0.4 point differential ranks eighth in the West, behind the Golden State Warriors, and that tends to be a better predictor going forward.
