We’ve reached the midpoint of an NBA season that has been filled with surprises — Detroit and Boston lead the East, San Antonio is second in the West — and also far too many injuries to stars. It’s also given us jaw-dropping moments, and not just the ones Victor Wembanyama seems to deliver us on a nightly basis.
The midpoint also means it’s time to take stock of the NBA postseason awards. All week long, I will make my picks for some of the NBA’s top awards at this point in the season, plus get betting angles from NBC Sports experts. Today: Defensive Player of the Year.
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NBA Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
2. Rudy Gobert
3. Chet Holmgren
Analysis of Defensive Player of the Year race
It’s not a question of whether Victor Wembanyama should be the midseason winner of this award, it’s whether he should qualify in games played (and if he will qualify for the 65-game threshold at the end of the season). He has missed 14 games this season (and had one game of less than 20 minutes played), if that number gets above 17 he will not qualify under the league’s (ridiculous) 65-game rule. That said, with midseason awards this year, I am taking the position that if the player has not yet reached 17 games missed, he qualifies. In Wemby’s case, he has said the timing of his return from injury was partially in hopes of qualifying for postseason awards.
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Wembanyama’s case is easy to make. It’s not his 2.6 blocks per game (which leads the league), or the fact he has blocked six 3-pointers already this season (and has 41 blocks at the rim), or the fact the Spurs defense is 8.8 points per 100 possessions better defensively when he is on the court (and his replacement at center when out, Luke Kornett, is a quality defender in his own right, so that number is not artificially inflated), or his incredible rim protection numbers, or even that he is the anchor of the league’s third-best defense. None of that. It’s simply the Wemby effect when he is on the court — no player makes opponent rethink their decisions and dribble out of the paint, or pull up early and take bad shots, or just alter everything more than Wembanyama. He simply changes the geometry of the court on defense like nobody else.
If Wembanyama does not qualify, I would go with Rudy Gobert for DPOY right now — he has lifted an otherwise unimpressive Timberwolves defense (bottom three in the league when he is off the court) to a top-10 defense when he is on it. His rim protection stats are elite, but more than that, he has been the defensive anchor that has helped the Timberwolves play like a contender for a couple of months. He has been incredibly impactful as a defender. This would be Gobert’s fifth DPOY for good reason.
Holmgren deserves credit for being the anchor of the league’s best defense and lifting it to a new level this season, but when he is off the court the Thunder are still a top-three defense in the league. Holmgren shouldn’t be blamed for being on a good team with a lot of defenders, and he has shown he can do more than drop back and protect the rim, he can switch out and guard on the perimeter when asked. Still, I would have him third in impact behind the two men above him.
There are other names worth mentioning here. Ausar Thompson got serious consideration from me, sort of as the representative of a very good Pistons defense (Isaiah Stewart would be a good representative, too, but might not make the games requirement). The versatile and underrated Bam Adebayo deserves a mention here, he has been fantastic for the No. 3 defense in the league. Derrick White, Amen Thompson, Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes all deserve a mention here as well.
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Betting MVP Race
We reached out to the NBC Sports betting experts for their thoughts on the DPOY race and how they might bet it.
Jay Coucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst
If Wemby qualifies, he should win the award handily— he is in a tier of his own for defensive impact. If he doesn’t qualify, it’s likely Chet v Gobert, with the edge going to Chet for making last year’s clear #1 defense even better this year.
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports Betting Analyst
Qualification is the name of the game in this market. The low probability of Wemby qualifying would likely find him the winner. If not Wemby, Chet is the clear most likely choice as the standout of the amazing Thunder defense. The availability of Chet is far from a certainty, however, which would create a black swan event like we had last season for this award. Best guess would be Rudy Gobert taking home his fifth DPOY in that instance but his price at +300 now means you are counting on at least a 25% chance that Chet does not qualify which seems like a reach at this time.
