NFL picks, predictions for Week 18: Ravens take AFC North from Steelers; 49ers, Broncos clinch home-field advantage originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The final weekend of the NFL regular season is always the most difficult one to pick.
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Which teams are resting their starters? That’s a tricky spot for teams that have a first-round home game and have a chance for home-field advantage – like the Denver Broncos heading into their matchup with division rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos might play their starters, and the Chargers – who are locked into a road wild-card game – might not. That is the territory we live in.
The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks will not have that debate heading into Saturday’s matchup. The winner gets home-field advantage Saturday. The loser is on the road in the NFC wild card round. The win-and-in games between Tampa Bay and Carolina in the NFC South and Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North should be riveting.
Here is a look at our track record heading into the final weekend of the regular season:
Straight up: 163-92-1 (8-8 in Week 17)
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Against the spread: 122-131-3 (7-9 in Week 17)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 17. Odds according to Caesars.
POWER RANKINGS: Ravens, 49ers rising at right time for Week 18
NFL picks, predictions for Week 18
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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The Buccaneers are a risky pick here knowing they have lost four straight games by four points or less. Baker Mayfield has six TDs and five interceptions in that stretch, and the defense is struggling to generate turnovers. The Panthers are 3-5 S/U on the road.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
This is for home-field advantage in the NFC. San Francisco averages 39 points per game since its Week 14 bye week – and Brock Purdy averages 297.7 passing yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in that stretch. Sam Darnold will have success against an injury-plagued 49ers defense, too, which means this game could easily hit the over. This is a much different game than the 17-13 slugfest San Francisco won in Week 1.
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Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 27
MORE: Where 49ers-Bears shootout ranks among highest-scoring NFL games
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints have a chance to close the season on a five-game win streak with rookie Tyler Shough. The Falcons have won the last two home meetings and are coming off a short week. Kirk Cousins, 37, still has two years on his contract – so this does not feel like his last game by any means.
Pick: Saints 26, Falcons 21
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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
What drama is there in the Battle of Ohio? Myles Garrett will try to break or at least tie the NFL single-season sack record. Joe Burrow averages 307 passing yards with six TDs and no interceptions the last two weeks, but he has taken five sacks. Cleveland is 1-6 S/U and 1-6 ATS on the road.
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Pick:Bengals 24, Browns 14
NFL STANDINGS: Updated AFC, NFC playoff pictures after Week 17
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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Will Green Bay play their starters? Will that matter? The Packers have allowed an average of 407 total yards in two games without Micah Parsons. Malik Willis (shoulder) could get another start. This is a tough line to gauge until we know who is in – and out – for the Packers.
Pick: Vikings 21, Packers 16
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Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys can get to .500 with a victory against the Giants. Dallas has won nine in a row in the series, and Dak Prescott can close the season on a high note. New York is 2-5 S/U and 3-4 ATS at home this season.
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Pick: Cowboys 28, Giants 19
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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Jaguars are looking to clinch the AFC South under first-year coach Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence has enjoyed a resurgence, and the defense has allowed 20 points or less and has forced two or more turnovers in five straight games. It’s a huge line, but the Jaguars are 6-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
Pick: Jaguars 31, Titans 17
MORE: Six reasons why Jaguars can win Super Bowl 60
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Texans need a Jaguars’ loss to have a shot at winning the AFC South, and the Colts have not made a decision at quarterback between Riley Leonard and veteran Philip Rivers, who is 0-3 with four TDs and three interceptions. Houston won the first meeting 20-16 in Week 13.
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Pick: Texans 23, Colts 14
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Bills cannot win the AFC East – so Sean McDermott could rest starters for the home finale against the Jets. New York averages 11.5 points through a four-game losing streak. Buffalo is 0-3 ATS when favored by 10 points or more this season – and not knowing the starters makes it a tough call.
Pick: Bills 23, Jets 13
MORE: Updated NFL Draft order heading into Week 18
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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is yet another game where whether the Bears play their starters is a factor. Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed, which is a better playoff path. That extra home game would be huge for Caleb Williams, and the Lions have been on fumes the last two weeks. This will be different than Week 2 – when Detroit beat Chicago 52-21 in Ben Johnson’s return to Detroit.
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Pick: Bears 28, Lions 24
MORE: Why Lions’ 2025 season ended in disastrous playoff miss
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Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Chargers have a road playoff game no matter what, and whether Jim Harbaugh decides to rest key players will impact this result. Denver can clinch home-field advantage with a victory, and we expect the Broncos to play accordingly.
Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 17
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Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Raiders close the season at home in what has been a terrible first year under Pete Carroll. Las Vegas is in line to get the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Chris Oladukon had just 66 passing yards in his first start for the Chiefs.
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Pick: Chiefs 21, Raiders 13
MORE: Ranking Chiefs’ best draft picks in 2026
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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Rams are locked into the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs – which means Sean McVay can rest veterans against the Cardinals. Will Los Angeles take advantage? Jimmy Garoppolo could see time at QB in place of Matthew Stafford. The Cardinals are on an eight-game losing streak.
Pick: Rams 25, Cardinals 22
MORE: Key stats to know in MVP debate between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye
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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Patriots would get home-field advantage with a win and a Denver loss. Miami has won three of its last five games, but the losses are blowouts. Still, Miami is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more and the Patriots could always pull starters.
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Pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 16
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Eagles still have a chance at the No. 2 seed, and that would improve their chances at returning to the Super Bowl. These teams played in Week 16 – and Philadelphia won 29-18. Washington has allowed 200-plus rushing yards each of the last two weeks.
Pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 17
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Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The AFC North is on the line. Will Lamar Jackson (back) return? Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Steelers to the AFC North crown? The Steelers did not have a receiver with more than 25 yards in Week 17. This team misses DK Metcalf, and that could be the difference in the usual hard-hitting matchup. Pittsburgh has won four of the last five home meetings.
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Pick: Ravens 22, Steelers 19
