NFL playoffs: Divisional round questions, overreactions

The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged on top after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. However, it came at a cost; Bo Nix went down with an ankle injury. The second game was more one-sided, as the Seahawks blew out the 49ers on Saturday night. Two more games are on deck, with Texans-Patriots and Rams-Bears on Sunday.

What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.

Let’s jump in, making sense of the Seahawks’ great roster, the 49ers’ decimated roster, the Nix injury news and the Bills’ playoff woes. And we will continue to react to games as they happen over the course of the weekend.

Jump to:
SF-SEA | BUF-DEN

‘The Seahawks had the best offseason of any team.’ Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. The Seahawks went into the 2025 offseason intent on and expecting to sign Geno Smith to a contract extension. When it became apparent to them that Smith wasn’t interested in extending his deal at their numbers, they traded him to the Raiders and signed Sam Darnold. Say what you will about Darnold, but the 2025 Seahawks went 14-3 — same record as Darnold’s 2024 Vikings — and now he has a home game Jan. 25 in the NFC Championship Game.

Seahawks GM John Schneider went about his offseason the same way he would have had he landed his first choice at quarterback. He signed DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed Cooper Kupp because he’s a better blocker at this point than Tyler Lockett. He drafted Nick Emmanwori in the second round. Schneider freaking loves the second round. Even as someone who likes to see players get as much money as they can and wishes the top QBs would push harder to move the market upward for others, I still have to appreciate a philosophy like Seattle’s approach: «Do we have to pay our quarterback $50-plus million per year if he still hasn’t shown he’s that guy?»

Week 16 victory over the Rams, «We’re trying to win championships here,» and the Seahawks obviously are living that. Seattle has lost three games all season, and the margins were four, three and two points. Two of those losses were to division rivals, one of which they eliminated Saturday. Is Darnold the second coming of Joe Montana? No. Of John Elway? No. Of Patrick Mahomes? No. But the Seahawks decided, at some point, that they intend to be the example of how to win a championship without paying great quarterback money to a pretty good quarterback because there’s a championship-caliber roster around him.

Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the QB portion of their offseason the way they would have treated any other portion of it. They didn’t get the player they wanted, but they knew they could still win with this quarterback because of everything else they do well. Hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach was a last offseason move, not a this offseason move, but it was still one that impacted their approach to this offseason. And here they still are. — Graziano

The lingering question: Will the 49ers be NFC favorites with a healthy team next season?

It’s too early to say, of course. But spin it forward for me. The Seahawks will likely be the favorite, barring some catastrophic injury between now and then. The Rams could be up there, as well, especially if they finish the NFC playoffs strong … but Matthew Stafford’s career longevity is always going to be a question that hurts them in the futures markets. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have most of their main players under contract.

Trent Williams’ contract is expiring, and the offensive line clearly needs help across the board. Wide receiver is a little thin with the Brandon Aiyuk situation unclear and Jauan Jennings approaching free agency. But that young defense, which was hammered by injuries this season, will return Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. And Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott are the only two expiring contracts there. This group will benefit from postseason experience next season and will presumably add to the pass rush.

Of course, the 49ers will see if they get through the offseason without losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was key to their surprising success despite all the injuries. Saleh has interviewed with the Titans and Ravens already and is a deservedly hot name on the head coaching circuit. If he gets a job, San Francisco will be forced back on the defensive coordinator carousel.

It’s also worth noting that the 49ers, who had a very easy schedule entering this season, will play a third-place schedule next season despite their postseason appearance. With only a few moves in offseason housekeeping and a regression to the mean in injury luck, the Niners should be considered a deep NFC playoff team once again. — Solak

---

‘The Broncos are done without Bo Nix.’ Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. The Broncos barely won Saturday’s game. Buffalo had to turn the ball over five times — including once in overtime — or else Nix might not have broken his ankle in the first place. And certainly, without Nix’s clutch play in the fourth quarter and overtime, Denver wouldn’t have won and advanced to a home AFC Championship Game.

But now? You want me to believe the Broncos are going to beat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback? And even if they do, does anyone believe they can then win the Super Bowl? I’m sorry, Jarrett, but it just doesn’t feel to me like this Broncos team is good enough to pull a 2017 Eagles and win this thing without their starting quarterback.

The Broncos have a good defense, yes. We know this about them. But they weren’t super awesome Saturday against a Bills team that moved the ball extremely well between turnovers, and they haven’t been elite in the way that defenses such as Seattle and Houston have been — at least not over the second half of this season. The Broncos do run the ball better than most think, but c’mon. We all watched this game. The Bills handed the Broncos 10 points at the tail end of the first half, then three more at the start of the second, and Buffalo still had a fourth-quarter lead that Nix found a way to overcome. Nix isn’t a perfect player, but what he can do with his legs and what he can do in the clutch are separating factors that Stidham just doesn’t offer.

Previewing the divisional round
&#8226 Big questions, judging overreactions
&#8226 Game plans for divisional round upsets
&#8226 Bracket and schedule | More content

The Broncos defense is going to have to play the game of a lifetime next week — even if it’s against Houston’s inconsistent offense — if it wants to lug this team into the Super Bowl. And even if it collects a bunch of turnovers and sneaks into the big game, Denver is then going to have to beat a team that has had two weeks off and likely still has its starting quarterback.

It’s a shame. It would have been fun to see what Sean Payton and this Broncos team could have done. Payton could have been the first coach to win the Super Bowl with two different teams. But in the wake of the Nix injury news, all of that is a lot harder to imagine. — Graziano

The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep losing in the postseason?

I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five times deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen’s end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.

It felt like Allen was digging the hole, and then as always, Allen was the one to pull the Bills back out. But there were too many misses. Allen failed to connect with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen in the red zone that could have allowed him to score, and he missed an open Dawson Knox at the end of regulation on a throw that could have walked the game off. Allen was simultaneously one of the biggest reasons the Bills were still in that game, while also being one of the biggest reasons they fell short.

The Bills have now made it to seven consecutive postseasons with Allen at the helm, which means they’ve suffered seven postseason losses. There’s really no unifying factor on the field, though. Wide receiver talent was a big deal in this game; Allen was 0-for-9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield, and downfield production is often a receiver stat. The pass rush has been an issue and was again in this game; Nix was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks, and the Bills needed to send blitzes to get home. Defensive back depth was also a big deal; two of Nix’s three touchdowns came targeting backup defensive backs.

Still, when you’ve lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors — coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills’ triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen’s tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.

If the Bills make changes, I’d totally get it. If they don’t, I’d totally get it, too. They’ve been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. — Solak