Bettors who like taking favorites had a sweat-free afternoon on Sunday.
After underdogs had done fairly well through the early games, going 6-3 counting Thursday night and the early Sunday game from Germany, the favorites decided to make things far less interesting. The Seahawks won by 22, Rams won by 16 and the Lions won by 22 for some easy covers by favorites. Then the Chargers won 25-10 on Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.
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That made for some boring football to end Sunday, but some easy wins for those on the favorites.
Here are the top five betting storylines for Week 11, with all odds from BetMGM:
West showdown No. 1
There are two games in the late afternoon window Sunday which have massive playoff implications. The first one kicks off in Los Angeles, where the 7-2 Seahawks face the 7-2 Rams for first place in the NFC West. Both teams have been among the best in the NFL all season, and this is their first meeting of the season. The Rams have been excellent but aren’t giving the full field goal on the odds. They’re a 2.5-point favorite. The line was Rams -3 at some books on Monday, but it has settled a half-point less than that.
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The Rams are still expected to win the division by oddsmakers. They are -115 favorites with the Seahawks next at +110.
West showdown No. 2
The Chiefs-Broncos game isn’t for first place in the AFC West, but it might be a must-win for the Chiefs.
If the Chiefs lose Sunday, they’ll be 5-5 and three-and-a-half games behind the 9-2 Broncos with just seven games to go for Kansas City. It’s hard to ever completely rule out the Chiefs but that would be a massive hole to get out of. Their streak of nine straight AFC West titles might be on the line.
The good news for the Chiefs is the Broncos offense can’t get out of its slump. That’s why the Chiefs are a fairly surprising 3.5-point road favorite against a team they’re well behind in the standings. The Broncos getting more than a field goal at home indicates how much last Thursday night’s offensive fiasco in an ugly win over the Raiders resonated in the betting market.
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Despite being underdogs at home to the Chiefs, the Broncos are still slight favorites to win the AFC West at +135 odds. The Chiefs are +140.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have a huge game at the Denver Broncos on Sunday. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
(David Eulitt via Getty Images)
Not many big Week 11 spreads
There is only one double-digit spread in Week 11. Unfortunately it’s on Thursday night.
The Patriots are an 11.5-point favorite as they host the Jets in prime time. The rest of the schedule looks pretty enticing. There are only two other spreads higher than a touchdown (Ravens -8 at Browns and Texans -7.5 at Titans). It should be a good week of football, after Thursday night at least.
MVP odds movement
The NFL MVP race is still up for grabs. That has made for some interesting odds movement.
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Drake Maye took over as the betting favorite for MVP after the early games Sunday but that didn’t last long. Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns and he took the lead after the late afternoon games. Stafford is the favorite at +275. Maye is right behind at +300. Jonathan Taylor had a monster game in Germany early Sunday, but still is just fourth in the MVP odds at +550. That’s not bad for a running back. A non-quarterback hasn’t won MVP since 2012.
Taylor has the week off as the Colts are on a bye. Stafford has a good chance to increase his lead with a big game against the Seahawks, but Patrick Mahomes (+500) can make a push if he has a big game against a good Broncos defense in a featured game.
A rough Jaguars bad beat
Those who had the Jaguars at +1.5 last Sunday thought they’d get through this without reliving one of the worst beats of the NFL season. Sorry.
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The Jaguars-Texans line had plenty of movement, but for the early part of the week the line was Jaguars +1.5. That looked safe when the Jaguars led 29-10 going into the fourth quarter. It was fine when the Texans took a 30-29 lead with 31 seconds left and missed the 2-point conversion. But Jaguars bettors already know what happened. On the final play Trevor Lawrence was hit from behind and lost the ball (was Lawrence down before he fumbled? It didn’t seem like anyone was interested in reviewing a play with the game over) and it was returned for a meaningless touchdown with no time left.
Well, it was meaningful to some.
To go from a 19-point lead to losing with an underdog like that is beyond painful.
